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Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion IV: We don't need no stinkin avatars edition

Tampa plays Toronto and Florida one more time each before the end of the season. Toronto and Florida both play Tampa in Tampa on the 2nd half of a back to back. Florida has 3 more back to backs before the end of the season, with none of them a home & home. Toronto has 2 more back to backs, none of them home and home.
 
Publicly available advanced stats kinda suck, and seem to horribly undervalue the way that our team plays, so I find it super interesting when we get to look at the SportLogiq data (which is the private data that teams & large media agencies use).

1743606040413.png


There's a lot of interesting takeaways from this this, but what I find most encouraging is our level of consistent play throughout the year - outside of the first month there hasn't been a lot of cheating, we've been generating honestly which hasn't really been the case for the past two years (in which we were hovering at around an even xG differential).

I find Month 4 to be the most interesting, as that was our worst month as far as team record but our 3rd best month as far as expected goal share - which really matches the eye test. We were consistently out-generating the opponents but couldn't get anything in the net whereas our opponents were able to score on their more scarce high danger chances we gave up.

Below is a graph that also considers actual goals, which highlights our ability to both control the game and take advantage of having some of the most talented goal scorers in the league.

1743608269889.png


Part of writing this out is to talk myself into believing in this team after being scarred from pretty miserable post-season appearances the last two-years, but the reality is that we're a very good hockey team that is much closer to the cup teams than what we've iced in our recent first round losses.
 
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creg said:
Publicly available advanced stats kinda suck, and seem to horribly undervalue the way that our team plays, so I find it super interesting when we get to look at the SportLogiq data (which is the private data that teams & large media agencies use).

View attachment 1004620

There's a lot of interesting takeaways from this this, but what I find most encouraging is our level of consistent play throughout the year - outside of the first month there hasn't been a lot of cheating, we've been generating honestly which hasn't really been the case for the past two years (in which we were hovering at around an even xG differential).

I find Month 4 to be the most interesting, as that was our worst month as far as team record but our 3rd best month as far as expected goal share - which really matches the eye test. We were consistently out-generating the opponents but couldn't get anything in the net whereas our opponents were able to score on their more scarce high danger chances we gave up.

Below is a graph that also considers actual goals, which highlights our ability to both control the game and take advantage of having some of the most talented goal scorers in the league.

View attachment 1004637

Part of writing this out is to talk myself into believing in this team after being scarred from pretty miserable post-season appearances the last two-years, but the reality is that we're a very good hockey team that is much closer to the cup teams than what we've iced in our recent first round losses.
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Just limit the dumb turnovers from our bottom 2 or 3 defensemen and I think we're in decent shape to win a round or two.
 
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I'm not sweating it. This time can be used to both Howard and the Lightning's advantage. The situation is what it is and it's not changing. The smart thing to do is for the coaching staff and management to tell Howard to use the time to get physically ready. Hit the cardio like your life counts on it. Dude isn't gonna play 19 minutes have 5 to 9 days between games
 
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AlwaysSunnyInTampa said:
I'm not sweating it. This time can be used to both Howard and the Lightning's advantage. The situation is what it is and it's not changing. The smart thing to do is for the coaching staff and management to tell Howard to use the time to get physically ready. Hit the cardio like your life counts on it. Dude isn't gonna play 19 minutes have 5 to 9 days between games
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Do we know if Howard is hanging out in Tampa, still in East Lansing, or back home in Hudson right now?
 
Hockeyville USA said:
Do we know if Howard is hanging out in Tampa, still in East Lansing, or back home in Hudson right now?
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Not sure. I was wondering that too. In Howard's position I wouldn't go much further than being at MSU or back home and asking which Tampa teammate has an extra room I can crash in. Other than that just get into the best physical condition I can
 
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If anybody is interested in the very nerdy side of hockey one of my favorite analytics based podcasts The PDOCast had an unreal episode yesterday on Vasilevskiy's season with Vasy's friend & goalie analyst Kevin Woodley.



Very neat to hear about the changes that Vasy has made to positioning this season, which likely effected his first few months of play, and how preconceived notions of him aren't reflective of the season he's having (he's been a top goalie at stopping point shots despite it being viewed as a major weakness following that Leafs series).
 
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creg said:
If anybody is interested in the very nerdy side of hockey one of my favorite analytics based podcasts The PDOCast had an unreal episode yesterday on Vasilevskiy's season with Vasy's friend & goalie analyst Kevin Woodley.



Very neat to hear about the changes that Vasy has made to positioning this season, which likely effected his first few months of play, and how preconceived notions of him aren't reflective of the season he's having (he's been a top goalie at stopping point shots despite it being viewed as a major weakness following that Leafs series).
Click to expand...

This was a real good listen. Good explanation of Vasy's work this year.

Also game 4 of me not in GDT's, lets see if it works again.
 
Nick Paul is not a top 6 forward.

Call up Geekie to play with Hagel and Cirelli and put Chaffee and Paul in the bottom 6.

Glendening and Girgensons can kick rocks.
 
RDTBay4 said:
Nick Paul is not a top 6 forward.

Call up Geekie to play with Hagel and Cirelli and put Chaffee and Paul in the bottom 6.

Glendening and Girgensons can kick rocks.
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Chaffee isn't going to play that much the rest of the way, we saw how bad he was in the 2024 Playoffs against Florida
 
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