2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.

[Brian39]

That contract is not appealing at all. Plus it's strapped with tons of bonuses and and a full NMC

Specifically, there is a $10M bonus due 7/1/25, no bonus in 2026, and then $5M bonus every July for the last 5 years of the deal. Full NMC from 7/1/25 through the duration of the contract. $11.6M AAV through the end of the 2031/32 season (one year longer than the Thomas contract).

Is there risk? Absolutely. But what is your honest assessment of his floor? He's scored at a 30+ goal pace in each of his 6 NHL seasons since entering the league in his age 20 season. He's hit 30+ goals each of his last 3 seasons, he has 438 points in 434 career games, he has a 102 point season on his resume and an 89 point season on his resume. He's pretty damn good defensively. I get that there are consistency issues and a recent (but growing) dip in production, but the narrative about him sure sounds a lot worse than the 8 goals and 26 points he actually has through 27 games this year.

Honestly, what is the non-injury worst case scenario? That he's "only" a consistent 30 goal, 80 point guy instead of the 35-40 goal, 90+ point guy they hoped they were getting? I get that 30 goals and 80 points isn't enough for $11.6M AAV. But 6+ years of a Thomas/Petey 1-2 punch down the middle is a pretty good way to spend $19.725M in cap space even if Petey is underperforming his AAV by a few million. If you can get Petey without giving up Dvorsky then you are talking about being completely set down the middle through 2031.

I doubt that the Canucks would actually move Petey for anything less than a boatload, but if he is available his contract isn't really concerning to me.

Edit: the cap is either going to skyrocket by the start of the 2026/27 season or we are going to have a lockout. Unless the owners try to lower the player share of HRR below the current 50%, we're talking about a roughly $20M cap jump in the next couple years. If the cap was still calculated by HRR and not the artificial ceiling set from the COVID agreement, we'd have a cap around $105M for 2025/26. Barring a CBA negotiation contentious enough to cost a season, we're going back to an HRR linked 50/50 split for 2026/27 and beyond. Modest growth between now and then will have the cap around $110M.

$11.6M would be 10.5% of a $110M cap. That is the equivalent of a $9.24M AAV against today's cap. We're about to see a massive spike in contract values.

The 2010s was dominated by the teams that got a bunch of back-diving 10+ year deals inked before the 2013 CBA eliminated them. I think there is a very, very good chance that the 'every year contenders' of the late 2020s and early 2030s are going to be the teams that have guys on the back half of 8 year deals signed before this summer when contract values start to explode.

I really think that right now is the best time in a decade to accumulate long term deals for players in their early/mid 20s.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Specifically, there is a $10M bonus due 7/1/25, no bonus in 2026, and then $5M bonus every July for the last 5 years of the deal. Full NMC from 7/1/25 through the duration of the contract. $11.6M AAV through the end of the 2031/32 season (one year longer than the Thomas contract).

Is there risk? Absolutely. But what is your honest assessment of his floor? He's scored at a 30+ goal pace in each of his 6 NHL seasons since entering the league in his age 20 season. He's hit 30+ goals each of his last 3 seasons, he has 438 points in 434 career games, he has a 102 point season on his resume and an 89 point season on his resume. He's pretty damn good defensively. I get that there are consistency issues and a recent (but growing) dip in production, but the narrative about him sure sounds a lot worse than the 8 goals and 26 points he actually has through 27 games this year.

Honestly, what is the non-injury worst case scenario? That he's "only" a consistent 30 goal, 80 point guy instead of the 35-40 goal, 90+ point guy they hoped they were getting? I get that 30 goals and 80 points isn't enough for $11.6M AAV. But 6+ years of a Thomas/Petey 1-2 punch down the middle is a pretty good way to spend $19.725M in cap space even if Petey is underperforming his AAV by a few million. If you can get Petey without giving up Dvorsky then you are talking about being completely set down the middle through 2031.

I doubt that the Canucks would actually move Petey for anything less than a boatload, but if he is available his contract isn't really concerning to me.

Already posted that hahaha