GDT: 2023 Draft- do we draft in the first round?

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Other teams can clown our club for various reasons, but you can never say that the Canes don't swing for upside in the draft. Are the likes of Perron/Rykov/Mukhanov likely to bust? Of course! But still, they have the skill to maybe thrive in a top six in some crazy universe. That's what I like about our lower rounds every year. You can acquire great bottom-six talent via trade every offseason when some team either blows up or is capped out, but top-six finds are far more difficult to pick up.

 

[Unsustainable]

@Caser

Whats your thoughts on our 5 Russian picks this draft?

 

[Chrispy]

If we’re passing up quality CHL players to take a lesser player that fits this current mood for whatever reason we’re doing it, can’t say I’m a fan.

I suppose in the later rounds you can use the justification that they’re all just darts after the first and aren’t that different from each other. The Russian thing is starting to get old though.

I don't think it's that. I do think there's still some drop-off in knowledge of or interest in drafting Russian players because of the war.

If the Borg feels like they have knowledge other teams don't, they are going to take the player they think is rated higher than the position, whether due to teams being unsure of when Russians will be able to come over or being unable to watch Russians as much in person.

 

[Caser]

@Caser

Whats your thoughts on our 5 Russian picks this draft?

Well, if last year I was just laughing about how Canes stole almost every good Russian prospect then this year in general I'm not a huge fan of those selections:

Rykov - I'm a fan here, he's got what it takes to be a very good all-around player. Technically you can't call that a steal, since #100 is around where he was expected to go, but I'd personally have him as a second round guy.

Yarovoi - skillset is high-end, but I totally didn't like that he disappeared when the KHL playoffs started. So probably not my type of player, but this pick is a bet on this skillset, so time will tell.

Khazheyev - big, raw goalie, I prefer a bit more refined and consistent ones, however in that region it wouldn't be easy to get these kind of guys.

Mukhanov - I see a bit similar situation as with Trikozov here, as while I'm not a huge fan, I totally admit the value of the pick and if talking about the 6th round then it is a definite steal.

Velmakin - I don't think I even saw him this season.

 

[Unsustainable]

Well, if last year I was just laughing about how Canes stole almost every good Russian prospect then this year in general I'm not a huge fan of those selections:

Rykov - I'm a fan here, he's got what it takes to be a very good all-around player. Technically you can't call that a steal, since #100 is around where he was expected to go, but I'd personally have him as a second round guy.
Yarovoi - skillset is high-end, but I totally didn't like that he disappeared when the KHL playoffs started. So probably not my type of player, but this pick is a bet on this skillset, so time will tell.

Khazheyev - big, raw goalie, I prefer a bit more refined and consistent ones, however in that region it wouldn't be easy to get these kind of guys.

Mukhanov - I see a bit similar situation as with Trikozov here, as while I'm not a huge fan, I totally admit the value of the pick and if talking about the 6th round then it is a definite steal.

Velmakin - I don't think I even saw him this season.

Thanks for the rundown.

Rykov and Mukhanov both expressed coming to NA in 2 years to compete here.

We should have a pretty good competition between this year and last for them. As we all know Boom Nikishin is the one we want now.

 

[NotOpie]

It’s an interesting plan, with the timing what’s been going on with our AHL team during that time. Clearly we want them developed as long as possible somewhere else.

Given that Chicago was notoriously bad at prospect development (the good year we got was because of Ryan Warsofsky) and didn't want to accommodate our desire to play more of our youngsters, I think it is more a matter of necessity....especially now that we don't have any AHL affiliate.

The picks from Russia are definitely going a bit overboard.

Serious question....why do you believe this.

Frankly, if other teams are afraid of the "Russian factor" and/or don't spend as much time/effort scouting over there, we're merely exploiting a market inefficiency....especially given that the KHL is the 2nd best league in the world (which implies that its developmental leagues parallel that as well).

 

[Caser]

Thanks for the rundown.

Rykov and Mukhanov both expressed coming to NA in 2 years to compete here.

We should have a pretty good competition between this year and last for them. As we all know Boom Nikishin is the one we want now.

One thing is that all the "coming to NA in x years" talk should be read more like "let's wait the remaining x years of the KHL contract", as practice shows that it is just talk for now.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

4 overagers in 1 draft is something new for us.

 

[chaz4hockey]

And thank goodness, taller than 5'9"

 

[Chan790]

I refuse to be the heels who removed the Tucson Roadrunners from the desert.

We could move them pretty much anywhere in the Carolinas, keep the name, change the logo to reflect the NASCAR and moonshine running roots of the region...and slowly watch hockey people lose their shit. Again.

We have a jerk reputation to live up to.

 

[baconandbread]

I like our draft group

 

[Unsustainable]

One thing is that all the "coming to NA in x years" talk should be read more like "let's wait the remaining x years of the KHL contract", as practice shows that it is just talk for now.

Whats your opinion on Nikishin coming over?

 

[Caser]

Whats your opinion on Nikishin coming over?

I think that with the way how things are going he will sign in 2025 after his KHL deal is done.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Updating this for a 5 draft sample. Here's how other successful teams approached it after making the playoffs the first time:

Team	Years	R1	R2	R3	SUM	R4	R5	R6	R7	SUM	TOTAL
Pittsburgh	07-11	4	3	4	11	5	6	6	2	19	30
Boston	08-12	5	4	4	13	4	4	5	5	18	31
Washington	08-12	6	3	3	12	6	5	5	6	22	34
Chicago	09-13	5	9	6	20	5	5	6	7	23	43
Los Angeles	10-14	3	5	4	12	5	6	6	5	22	34
St. Louis	12-16	3	8	3	14	7	6	5	4	22	36
Tampa	14-18	3	8	6	17	5	3	7	6	21	38
Toronto	17-21	3	5	4	12	7	5	6	7	25	37
Colorado	18-22	5	2	5	12	2	4	4	4	14	26
Carolina	19-23	3	9	8	20	8	6	8	8	30	50

It will be interesting to see if anything changes as their first true draft class ages out in terms of waivers next Fall. Forward looking lottery tickets are exciting, but backwards looking ones, not so much.

 

[Brock Anton]

Serious question....why do you believe this.

Frankly, if other teams are afraid of the "Russian factor" and/or don't spend as much time/effort scouting over there, we're merely exploiting a market inefficiency....especially given that the KHL is the 2nd best league in the world (which implies that its developmental leagues parallel that as well).

Because I feel like we're neglecting other parts of the world chasing that one gem out of Russia every year because they look to have possibly hit with Nikishin. I have no issue with drafting out of Russia, I just feel like we're focusing way too much time/effort there right now (and not getting much value for our time there yet).

 

[The Faulker 27]

Like goalies, drafts are a crapshoot so why not swing for the fences? Obviously the fences seem to be Russian players for the Borg. I would suspect they probably have some top men using some sound data to lead them in that direction.

 

[hblueridgegal]

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Updating this for a 5 draft sample. Here's how other successful teams approached it after making the playoffs the first time:

Team	Years	R1	R2	R3	SUM	R4	R5	R6	R7	SUM	TOTAL
Pittsburgh	07-11	4	3	4	11	5	6	6	2	19	30
Boston	08-12	5	4	4	13	4	4	5	5	18	31
Washington	08-12	6	3	3	12	6	5	5	6	22	34
Chicago	09-13	5	9	6	20	5	5	6	7	23	43
Los Angeles	10-14	3	5	4	12	5	6	6	5	22	34
St. Louis	12-16	3	8	3	14	7	6	5	4	22	36
Tampa	14-18	3	8	6	17	5	3	7	6	21	38
Toronto	17-21	3	5	4	12	7	5	6	7	25	37
Colorado	18-22	5	2	5	12	2	4	4	4	14	26
Carolina	19-23	3	9	8	20	8	6	8	8	30	50

It will be interesting to see if anything changes as their first true draft class ages out in terms of waivers next Fall. Forward looking lottery tickets are exciting, but backwards looking ones, not so much.

Honestly, the Canes are doing pretty well at the table. Of course most of the picks are going to be busts, but they're also getting guys that may well extend the Canes window even more. Jarvis and Kochetkov seem to be in that category. Kotkaniemi is more like a trade acquisition but was a very young center acquired using draft picks, so it kind of was like a draft pick made 3 seasons later. Morrow and especially Nikishin certainly seem to be trending in the right direction, though only time will tell. The eye injury may have ruined Suzuki's career, though that's another too-early call. Everything else is a full-blown crapshoot.

 

[HisIceness]

I remember a time when all this team would draft were North American prospects and occasionally a kid from Finland or Norway. For every Faulk or Aho on day 2 we got 10-15 prospects that maybe at best were top-9 journeymen. Whether that was our teams fault for improper development/scouting or the players just didn't have "it" well you draw your own conclusions.

I get the criticism of our drafting style but similar to Baseball, at 18 these kids can almost be what you want them to be. They can marinate in the lower levels for a time and work on their strengths and improve their weaknesses.

I would like to say though that I for one never understood why JR and the few years of Francis ignored Russia for so long. I guess being burned on Igor Knysyov in 2001 didn't help.

 

[Bub]

Best names from the 2023 draft. A totally subjective (and fun) list.

Most Likely to Have an Album on the Country Charts:
Beau Akey
Hoyt Stanley

Most 2023 Names:
Gracyn Sawchyn
Koehn Ziemmer

Best Corporate Names:
William Whitelaw
Carter Sothern
Chase Cheslock

Probably Actually a 52-Year-Old Junior Hockey Executive:
Larry Keenan

Easiest to Remember:
Marcel Marcel

Just Great to Say:
Rodwin Dionicio
Melker Thelin
Zaccharya Wisdom
Dennis Good Bogg

Honorable Mentions:
Felix Unger Sorum (natch)
Denver Barkey and Arttu Karki (taken backy-to-backy)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I remember a time when all this team would draft were North American prospects and occasionally a kid from Finland or Norway. For every Faulk or Aho on day 2 we got 10-15 prospects that maybe at best were top-9 journeymen. Whether that was our teams fault for improper development/scouting or the players just didn't have "it" well you draw your own conclusions.

Early years, yes. From 1997 to 2008, the only really solid players we got from the 2nd round on were Cole, Vasicek and Wallin. HM to Willis.


From 2009 on, I'd say our Day 2 picks were pretty good, and in some cases, better than Day 1.

2009: Dumoulin
2010: Faulk and Andersen
2011: Rask
2012: McGinn and Slavin
2013: Pesce
2014: Ned and Foegele
2015: Aho, Nic Roy and Lorentz
2016: Nothing
2017: Luostarinen and Geekie

I get the criticism of our drafting style but similar to Baseball, at 18 these kids can almost be what you want them to be. They can marinate in the lower levels for a time and work on their strengths and improve their weaknesses.

I would like to say though that I for one never understood why JR and the few years of Francis ignored Russia for so long. I guess being burned on Igor Knysyov in 2001 didn't help.

I think a lot of it had to do with us having one of the smallest scouting staffs in the NHL under Karmanos. Hard to cover Russia when we were barely covering US, Canada and Europe.

 

[LakeLivin]

You are right (to your point: The Best Late-Round NHL Draft Picks) but it is still tough for me to get excited (until they produce of course).

what percentage of players make it from each round of the draft?

Round	Percentage of Players to play an NHL Game
3	54%
4	44%
5	34%
6	31%

.

I was going to say those percentages seem extremely high but then realized the criteria they're using is just one NHL game. Heck, Jared Staal had 2 NHL games, lol.

I'm wondering what minimum game cutoff would make the most sense?

 

[LakeLivin]

I wonder if The Borg might be taking advantage of what they see as a market inefficiency with regard to how the rest of the league calculates the risk / reward of drafting Russian players?

 

[Bub]

I wonder if The Borg might be taking advantage of what they see as a market inefficiency with regard to how the rest of the league calculates the risk / reward of drafting Russian players?

Interesting, given that I'm watching the draft replay on NHL Network and they're saying the same thing about the Coyotes.

 

[Highest Boss]

Best names from the 2023 draft. A totally subjective (and fun) list.

Most Likely to Have an Album on the Country Charts:
Beau Akey
Hoyt Stanley

Most 2023 Names:
Gracyn Sawchyn
Koehn Ziemmer

Best Corporate Names:
William Whitelaw
Carter Sothern
Chase Cheslock

Probably Actually a 52-Year-Old Junior Hockey Executive:
Larry Keenan

Easiest to Remember:
Marcel Marcel

Just Great to Say:
Rodwin Dionicio
Melker Thelin
Zaccharya Wisdom
Dennis Good Bogg

Honorable Mentions:
Felix Unger Sorum (natch)
Denver Barkey and Arttu Karki (taken backy-to-backy)

Hardest to Remember:
David...