The 2023-24 Ross Race; Tracking Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid

[TheStatican]

McDavid just had a historic 2023-24 season but as unbelievable as it seems Kucherov and MacKinnon are both currently just 4 and 5 points off his pace from his pace at the same time last season, with Kuch even briefly matching it gms 20 & 21. I don't think anyone expects them to also hit 150+ points this year but it would still be pretty incredible if they reached 140 while dueling each other to the title. McDavid should not be written off all either. I originally thought he was going to win the race despite his early season struggles, then I concluded he was out of it. But now after after looking at the numbers a little deeper there exists a bit of "objects are closer than they appear" situation here, because while he is currently 18 points behind the front runner, he only has 5 less points than Kuch did, and 2 less than Mac, by gm 43. Anyhow here's how the race has played out to date:

*Edit* - I'll just put this table here at the top of the page here and update it game by game until the end of the season. Important to note that this is by game and not date so it doesn't line up with the scoring race. The first chart below(and in subsequent posts) shows the state of the race by date.

Gm#	MacK	Kuch	McD
1	3	2	1
2	3	4	3
3	3	4	5
4	4	4	6
5	6	6	8
6	7	9	9
7	7	10	9
8	7	11	10
9	9	11	10
10	9	11	10
11	11	16	10
12	14	20	12
13	15	22	13
14	18	23	13
15	20	23	15
16	20	24	16
17	22	27	20
18	23	28	25
19	24	29	28
20	26	35	29
21	28	36	32
22	29	37	34
23	30	39	36
24	31	40	38
25	34	42	40
26	36	44	41
27	37	44	41
28	39	47	43
29	41	47	44
30	43	50	45
31	47	52	47
32	48	54	48
33	53	57	53
34	54	57	54
35	56	58	55
36	56	59	56
37	58	61	57
38	61	63	58
39	64	64	59
40	65	67	59
41	66	67	60
42	67	69	63
43	69	72	67
44	70	75	68
45	72	75	71
46	73	76	71
47	77	80	77
48	82	83	80
49	84	85	81
50	85	86	83
51	85	87	85
52	85	89	87
53	85	90	89
54	87	93	91
55	89	94	94
56	91	94	95
57	92	95	97
58	93	98	99
59	96	102	100
60	98	103	100
61	100	104	103
62	101	105
63	105	106
64	109	107
65	111
66	113

In graphic format. Point totals at 'xxx' date;

Point totals at game number, with comparisons to McDavid's previous best two season

By PPG;

Click to read more...

 

[Nucks2001]

The crazier thing is how MacKinnon has a 10-point gap on McDavid in even strength points. He’s the best 5v5 player in the world and it’s not close.

 

[Coffey]

The crazier thing is how MacKinnon has a 10-point gap on McDavid in even strength points. He’s the best 5v5 player in the world and it’s not close.

Never heard anyone call another player “the best 5v5 player” until the last few years on here. Never heard it once in the 90s, 2000s or 2010s.

What a goofy distinction. Fans are so weird now.

 

[Fourier]

Never heard anyone call another player “the best 5v5 player” until the last few years on here. Never heard it once in the 90s, 2000s or 2010s.

What a goofy distinction. Fans are so weird now.

The crazier thing is how MacKinnon has a 10-point gap on McDavid in even strength points. He’s the best 5v5 player in the world and it’s not close.

This article does a good job at braking down the Oilers 5 vs 5 issues.

Analyzing potential top-six winger targets for the Edmonton Oilers

<span style="font-weight: 400;">As the NHL trade deadline nears closer...

oilersnation.com

This has significantly impacted McDavid and Draisaitl’s 5v5 production. Last season, per AllThreeZones, McDavid ranked first in the league in 5v5 scoring chance assists per hour, but 86th in actual assists per hour, ultimately finishing with fewer 5v5 assists than Vincent Trocheck and Pavel Zacha.

 

[Coffey]

This article does a good job at braking down the Oilers 5 vs 5 issues.

Analyzing potential top-six winger targets for the Edmonton Oilers

<span style="font-weight: 400;">As the NHL trade deadline nears closer...

oilersnation.com

What does that have to do with player to player comparisons?

 

[Fourier]

What does that have to do with player to player comparisons?

The claim you quoted was that MacKinnon was the best 5 vs 5 player in the world and that it was not close. The article states that McDavid creates the most 5 vs 5 chances of any player in the league, which agrees with the eye test by the way, but that his wingers finish at a lower rate. Again this agrees with the eye test.

MacKinnon is a tremendous talent. But to say that he is a better 5 vs 5 player and that it is not close seems over the top to me.

 

[Coffey]

The claim you quoted was that MacKinnon was the best 5 vs 5 player in the world and that it was not close. The article states that McDavid creates the most 5 vs 5 chances of any player in the league, which agrees with the eye test by the way, but that his wingers finish at a lower rate. Again this agrees with the eye test.

MacKinnon is a tremendous talent. But to say that he is a better 5 vs 5 player and that it is not close seems over the top to me.

Oh so you were meaning to prove the other guy wrong, ok.

 

[Fourier]

Oh so you were meaning to prove the other guy wrong, ok.

Prove is a strong word. But for the record I do think that McDavid is indeed the best 5 vs 5 player in the league.

 

[Coffey]

Prove is a strong word. But for the record I do think that McDavid is indeed the best 5 vs 5 player in the league.

Yea, my point was that this is an achievement that nobody cared about until 5 years ago.
Just recently when you try to raise one player and downplay another, usually on social media or forums. General vitriolic bullshit.

 

[Fourier]

Yea, my point was that this is an achievement that nobody cared about until 5 years ago.
Just recently when you try to raise one player and downplay another, usually on social media or forums. General vitriolic bullshit.

MacKinnon is a great player. He is also very exciting to watch. But McDavid may well end up in the top 5 all time. You don't do that by simply putting up points on the pp. As I am sure you know, his 5 vs 5 game is fantastic. But as the article suggests, aside from Draisaitl, who even had to reinvent his game to be so, he has seldom played with true finishers. Moreover, these days to score a lot 5 vs 5 you probably need a high end offensive defenseman. Until Bouchard's recent step forward the Oilers did not have such a player to complement McDavid. Barrie was probably the closest he had but Barrie was more of a pp contributor.

 

[Despote]

The claim you quoted was that MacKinnon was the best 5 vs 5 player in the world and that it was not close. The article states that McDavid creates the most 5 vs 5 chances of any player in the league, which agrees with the eye test by the way, but that his wingers finish at a lower rate. Again this agrees with the eye test.

This year his linemates have had ~average finish, and McDavid indeed leads the league in 5vs5 point per game and 5vs5 points per minute.

 

[Fourier]

This year his linemates have had ~average finish, and McDavid indeed leads the league in 5vs5 point per game and 5vs5 points per minute.

This is true. The article was referencing recent years beyond this one.

 

[TheStatican]

March 8th update, Point totals by date

Point totals by game #

PPG by game #

Gm#​	MacK​	Kuch​	McD​
1​	3​	2​	1​
2​	3​	4​	3​
3​	3​	4​	5​
4​	4​	4​	6​
5​	6​	6​	8​
6​	7​	9​	9​
7​	7​	10​	9​
8​	7​	11​	10​
9​	9​	11​	10​
10​	9​	11​	10​
11​	11​	16​	10​
12​	14​	20​	12​
13​	15​	22​	13​
14​	18​	23​	13​
15​	20​	23​	15​
16​	20​	24​	16​
17​	22​	27​	20​
18​	23​	28​	25​
19​	24​	29​	28​
20​	26​	35​	29​
21​	28​	36​	32​
22​	29​	37​	34​
23​	30​	39​	36​
24​	31​	40​	38​
25​	34​	42​	40​
26​	36​	44​	41​
27​	37​	44​	41​
28​	39​	47​	43​
29​	41​	47​	44​
30​	43​	50​	45​
31​	47​	52​	47​
32​	48​	54​	48​
33​	53​	57​	53​
34​	54​	57​	54​
35​	56​	58​	55​
36​	56​	59​	56​
37​	58​	61​	57​
38​	61​	63​	58​
39​	64​	64​	59​
40​	65​	67​	59​
41​	66​	67​	60​
42​	67​	69​	63​
43​	69​	72​	67​
44​	70​	75​	68​
45​	72​	75​	71​
46​	73​	76​	71​
47​	77​	80​	77​
48​	82​	83​	80​
49​	84​	85​	81​
50​	85​	86​	83​
51​	85​	87​	85​
52​	85​	89​	87​
53​	85​	90​	89​
54​	87​	93​	91​
55​	89​	94​	94​
56​	91​	94​	95​
57​	92​	95​	97​
58​	93​	98​	99​
59​	96​	102​	100​
60​	98​	103​	​
61​	100​	104​	​
62​	101​	105​	​
63​	105​	106​	​
64​	109​	​	​