Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Hodge]

25 points in 115 NHL games is why I would not do that. Same reason I would not trade a 1st rounder for Jesse P or Nils Lundkvist.

That 2nd rounder is going to be in 2025 where we will likely be inside the 33-36 range and that is way too rich for a guy with his stat line that is a 4th liner right now (hits and chases plays to lay the body but isn't doing much on the scoresheet otherwise).

He also is just not worth causing NHL GM drama over when we're going to have our own guys that teams can play offer sheet shenanigans with in the future. Could probably toss them a 3rd and Bordeleau and then sign him to a reasonable deal (like the 1 year $1M that he's projected at currently).

If you want to take him as part of the sweetener package to absorb Campbell's cap hit, then I'm not saying he's totally worthless. He just isn't all that good outside of what his draft slot was 4 years ago in a pandemic draft.

I would love to know how many players drafted in the 33-36 range over the past 20 years or so ended up being better NHL players than what Dylan Holloway has shown so far, let alone what he could develop into.

If we can acquire him for a lower acquisition cost through a trade that's fine but there's no compelling reason for the Oilers to trade him. You have to force their hand by making him too expensive to keep.

 

[TheBeard]

I would love to know how many players drafted in the 33-36 range over the past 20 years or so ended up being better NHL players than what Dylan Holloway has shown so far, let alone what he could develop into.

If we can acquire him for a lower acquisition cost through a trade that's fine but there's no compelling reason for the Oilers to trade him. You have to force their hand by making him too expensive to keep.

Absolutely no reason for Edmonton to trade him. If they don’t re-sign Leon then cap space isn’t an issue. If they DO then they’ll need as many nhl-ready kids on ELCs they can get to fill the roster.

 

[Hodge]

Absolutely no reason for Edmonton to trade him. If they don’t re-sign Leon then cap space isn’t an issue. If they DO then they’ll need as many nhl-ready kids on ELCs they can get to fill the roster.

Which is exactly why we should offer sheet him.

 

[STL Shark]

I would love to know how many players drafted in the 33-36 range over the past 20 years or so ended up being better NHL players than what Dylan Holloway has shown so far, let alone what he could develop into.

If we can acquire him for a lower acquisition cost through a trade that's fine but there's no compelling reason for the Oilers to trade him. You have to force their hand by making him too expensive to keep.

Owen Zelweger, Ryker Evans, Josh Doan, JJ Peterka, Shane Pinto, and Arthur Kaliyev are guys that have done as much or more than Holloway from that range since Holloway was drafted.

It's also not even just the argument of have to use the draft pick to draft a player. Can you use that draft pick to trade for an NHLer? If the Vegas pick is in the 18-20 range next year, is it better to be able to trade up into the 15th range for a guy you really want rather than wasting it to overpay Dylan Holloway by $3.5M?

There are so many better ways to use an early 2nd round pick than using it to overpay a guy by that much money that hasn't played above a 4th line role and whose best attribute is that he has a 1st round pick note next to his name in his bio. I don't hate the player and also think there might be something there, I just don't see it as 0 or 100 where you don't get him or you vastly overpay.

 

[Pete Taylor]

Owen Zelweger, Ryker Evans, Josh Doan, JJ Peterka, Shane Pinto, and Arthur Kaliyev are guys that have done as much or more than Holloway from that range since Holloway was drafted.

It's also not even just the argument of have to use the draft pick to draft a player. Can you use that draft pick to trade for an NHLer? If the Vegas pick is in the 18-20 range next year, is it better to be able to trade up into the 15th range for a guy you really want rather than wasting it to overpay Dylan Holloway by $3.5M?

There are so many better ways to use an early 2nd round pick than using it to overpay a guy by that much money that hasn't played above a 4th line role and whose best attribute is that he has a 1st round pick note next to his name in his bio. I don't hate the player and also think there might be something there, I just don't see it as 0 or 100 where you don't get him or you vastly overpay.

Was just about to pull up some of these names. Have to constantly verify some of the drafting claims that Hodge make, and am always pleasantly surprised at how untrue some of them are. Draft picks are overrated to a point, but not to the extent that he claims.

Also seems to sometimes contradict himself when offering trades like Eklund+14+33 for 6th overall (or something to that extent), when in most cases, Eklund at this point in his career is better than a guess at 6th overall, let alone giving up 2 other solid picks.

Edit: And those are the names that are just after he was drafted, let alone some of the names from years before, some names include Vlasic, James Neal, ROR, Compher, Sebastian Aho, and Jordan Kyrou prior.

 

[Hodge]

Was just about to pull up some of these names. Have to constantly verify some of the drafting claims that Hodge make, and am always pleasantly surprised at how untrue some of them are. Draft picks are overrated to a point, but not to the extent that he claims.

Also seems to sometimes contradict himself when offering trades like Eklund+14+33 for 6th overall (or something to that extent), when in most cases, Eklund at this point in his career is better than a guess at 6th overall, let alone giving up 2 other solid picks.

Edit: And those are the names that are just after he was drafted, let alone some of the names from years before, some names include Vlasic, James Neal, ROR, Compher, Sebastian Aho, and Jordan Kyrou prior.

Players drafted 33rd-36th overall from 2010-2019: John McFarland, Dalton Smith, Ludvig Rensfeldt, Alexander Petrovic, Rocco Grimaldi, Scott Mayfield, Tomas Jurco, Adam Clendening, Sebastian Collberg, Ville Pokka, Matt Finn, Nicolas Kerdiles, Adam Erne, Jacob De La Rose, JT Compher, Zach Fucale, Ivan Barbashev, Mason McDonald, Dominik Masin, Thatcher Demko, Mitchell Stephens, Travis Dermott, Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Gagne, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Peeke, Jordan Kyrou, Kole Lind, Nicolas Hague, Isaac Ratcliffe, Jesper Boqvist, Jonatan Berggren, Serron Noel, Jesse Pylonen, Jared McIsaac, Arthur Kaliyev, Bobby Brink, Antti Tuomisto, Pyotr Kochetkov

Out of the 40 players listed, I think it's fair to call Aho, Demko and Kyrou stars. Compher, Mayfield, Barbashev, Hague and Kochetkov are also useful players who were great picks. The other 32 (80%) were worthless.

I think Holloway is on the path to becoming a Compher/Barbashev level forward so I would happily cash in a lottery ticket with an ~80% failure rate and a ~7.5% chance to draft someone appreciably better than Holloway in order to get him.

Also it was Eklund+14+33 for 4th overall which would guarantee us one of Levshunov, Silayev or Lindstrom. I have no interest in trading up to draft someone other than those three.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Trouba would be a great add imo

 

[TheBeard]

Which is exactly why we should offer sheet him.

I feel like Mike is building a lot of good will among the GMs in the league and Dylan's not worth the bad karma that comes with it. Grier seems like he has no qualms picking up undesirables from other teams so take Holloway and Campbell for FCs and I'm good. Hell, Edmonton would probably retain on JC. Dylan and Jack with 30% retained (3.5 cap hit then for three years) and we have our Cuda goaltender lol.

 

[Bizz]

Trouba would be a great add imo

I'll raise an elbow to that.

 

[TheBeard]

Sharks should sign Ryan Suter and try and have the world's oldest defense to go along with the world's youngest forwards.

 

[TealManV]

Also it was Eklund+14+33 for 4th overall which would guarantee us one of Levshunov, Silayev or Lindstrom. I have no interest in trading up to draft someone other than those three.

Is Buium too small for you?

 

[Hodge]

Is Buium too small for you?

Not if he falls to 14 but I wouldn't trade up for a defenseman under 6'2 who lacks elite skating ability.

 

[Pete Taylor]

Players drafted 33rd-36th overall from 2010-2019: John McFarland, Dalton Smith, Ludvig Rensfeldt, Alexander Petrovic, Rocco Grimaldi, Scott Mayfield, Tomas Jurco, Adam Clendening, Sebastian Collberg, Ville Pokka, Matt Finn, Nicolas Kerdiles, Adam Erne, Jacob De La Rose, JT Compher, Zach Fucale, Ivan Barbashev, Mason McDonald, Dominik Masin, Thatcher Demko, Mitchell Stephens, Travis Dermott, Sebastian Aho, Gabriel Gagne, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Peeke, Jordan Kyrou, Kole Lind, Nicolas Hague, Isaac Ratcliffe, Jesper Boqvist, Jonatan Berggren, Serron Noel, Jesse Pylonen, Jared McIsaac, Arthur Kaliyev, Bobby Brink, Antti Tuomisto, Pyotr Kochetkov

Out of the 40 players listed, I think it's fair to call Aho, Demko and Kyrou stars. Compher, Mayfield, Barbashev, Hague and Kochetkov are also useful players who were great picks. The other 32 (80%) were worthless.

I think Holloway is on the path to becoming a Compher/Barbashev level forward so I would happily cash in a lottery ticket with an ~80% failure rate and a ~7.5% chance to draft someone appreciably better than Holloway in order to get him.

Also it was Eklund+14+33 for 4th overall which would guarantee us one of Levshunov, Silayev or Lindstrom. I have no interest in trading up to draft someone other than those three.

Your original post stated the last 20 years, hand picking that 10-year period, you are lowering your sample size to fit your claim better.

Nothing about Holloway tells me that he is going to become even close to Compher/Barbashev. More than the 8 players that you mentioned were much more useful than Holloway aswell., and some have the potential to be more useful. Alexander Petrovic, Rocco Grimaldi, Tomas Jurco, and Adam Clendening, some other players are debatable as well.

 

[coooldude]

Your original post stated the last 20 years, hand picking that 10-year period, you are lowering your sample size to fit your claim better.

Nothing about Holloway tells me that he is going to become even close to Compher/Barbashev. More than the 8 players that you mentioned were much more useful than Holloway aswell., and some have the potential to be more useful. Alexander Petrovic, Rocco Grimaldi, Tomas Jurco, and Adam Clendening, some other players are debatable as well.

To be fair, 2021 vintage is only just really establishing themselves in the league, so what's the point of looking at 2021-23?

 

[TheBeard]

Also it was Eklund+14+33 for 4th overall which would guarantee us one of Levshunov, Silayev or Lindstrom. I have no interest in trading up to draft someone other than those three.

I would absolutely not do that. Eklund has already proven he could potential top line guy. I'm not giving up that kind of trajectory as well as essentially a middle and late first to move up for someone.

 

[Pete Taylor]

To be fair, 2021 vintage is only just really establishing themselves in the league, so what's the point of looking at 2021-23?

I was just going off what he said in the original post I responded to. (last 20 years)

 

[Hodge]

Your original post stated the last 20 years, hand picking that 10-year period, you are lowering your sample size to fit your claim better.

Nothing about Holloway tells me that he is going to become even close to Compher/Barbashev. More than the 8 players that you mentioned were much more useful than Holloway aswell., and some have the potential to be more useful. Alexander Petrovic, Rocco Grimaldi, Tomas Jurco, and Adam Clendening, some other players are debatable as well.

Feel free to go back to 2000. You'll find the same percentages hold. I excluded more recent drafts because some of the prospects are too young to judge. Like it's ridiculous to hold up Zellweger or Josh Doan as a draft success when we have no idea what they're going to be in the NHL. Still a chance they're both busts.

Yeah let's make sure to hold onto that 2nd on the chance it becomes Alex Petrovic or Rocco Grimaldi. Would much rather have those bums than Holloway.

 

[Alaskanice]

Dakota Joshua is off the market. Signed a 4 year deal with Vancouver.

 

[Pete Taylor]

Feel free to go back to 2000. You'll find the same percentages hold. I excluded more recent drafts because some of the prospects are too young to judge. Like it's ridiculous to hold up Zellweger or Josh Doan as a draft success when we have no idea what they're going to be in the NHL. Still a chance they're both busts.

Yeah let's make sure to hold onto that 2nd on the chance it becomes Alex Petrovic or Rocco Grimaldi. Would much rather have those bums than Holloway.

Are we talking about the same Dylan Holloway? The one who had 9 points last season, a career high? 7 Points in 23 playoff games?

Yes he showed flashes of speed, and that is pretty much it. What makes him worth 4.5mil even on a 1 year deal, costing us a high second?

Do we really want to strain a GM relationship to get this guy?

 

[STL Shark]

Dakota Joshua is off the market. Signed a 4 year deal with Vancouver.

I liked Joshua and was willing to overpay on a 3 year deal ($4Mx3), but sort of redundant when we already have Kostin on the 3rd line LW as a similar guy. Really curious who Grier targets to play the open top 6 LW spot (Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund / ??-Smith-Granlund). That and a RHD for the top 4 appear to be the two open spots left right now for next season. Maybe a 3C, but unsure how high profile that would be without a known answer on Couture.

 

[Hodge]

Are we talking about the same Dylan Holloway? The one who had 9 points last season, a career high? 7 Points in 23 playoff games?

Yes he showed flashes of speed, and that is pretty much it. What makes him worth 4.5mil even on a 1 year deal, costing us a high second?

The potential that his size+speed combo, along with point per game AHL production at a young age, helps him develop into an effective long term 3C or championship caliber third line winger who can contribute in all situations.

4.5M would only be his cap hit for one year after which we could negotiate an extension depending on his performance. As we've already established, the 2nd is very unlikely to yield a player as good as Holloway.

 

[Star Platinum]

Yeah, this ain’t it. This thought process is how you wind up in the days of Lean Bergmann and Chekovich in your lineup.

Musty is unfortunately hurt by the more and more antiquated CHL-NHL agreement. He’s the ideal AHL player, but shouldn’t sniff the NHL roster this year. Warsofsky is trying to run a team rather than a youth development camp and Musty is better off in junior than getting 8 minutes a night with 30+ healthy scratches and some development time at practice.

Wow. I just read that agreement and those terms suck. I guess it's good for the Canadian leagues because it ensures that they have a good stock of talent to fill out their league, but it sure doesn't serve a guy like Musty well who has clearly outgrown his league, but either has to leap to the pros or play another season in a league he's already too good for because playing minor league hockey is not an option.

 

[mogambomoroo]

To be honest I think MG should focus on trying to fix the defence first before bringing tons of forwards. I'm not hating on McGroarty trade idea, but I feel like there is gotta be a major change in defence to be able to do something useful with those forwards. But that's just my opinion, I want to balance out the prospect pool and see what we have in some forwards that are already in the system.

 

[Star Platinum]

Musty isn't better off in Sudbury, apparently, that's my point and the point of others. Guys like Musty are in a unique, bad spot.

Problem is, good as Musty's season was, the priority of this season is developing Celebrini and Smith and if the idea is that we have to surround those two with veteran forwards to get the most out of their first pro season, then there just isn't enough room to develop Musty as well. We need those guys to be in a place where they can support other young players before we can support an 18 year old kid who is too good for junior, but is gonna struggle even more than Celebrini and Smith are if you force feed him to a major role on an NHL roster.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

To be honest I think MG should focus on trying to fix the defence first before bringing tons of forwards. I'm not hating on McGroarty trade idea, but I feel like there is gotta be a major change in defence to be able to do something useful with those forwards. But that's just my opinion, I want to balance out the prospect pool and see what we have in some forwards that are already in the system.

I would argue the opposite. MG should focus as much attention as possible on forwards and supporting Celebrini/Smith. They aren't competing any time soon so there's no need to stress about rounding out the team. Defensemen *truly* are not that important and should NEVER be the focus. I do not understand why so many here feel a need to go out of the way for defensemen. The best defensemen always fall right into your hands. No need to ever target them. Certainly not even think about an Eklund for Reinbacher trade now LOL!