The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of not giving out any term pretty much. The kids will not e ready, including Mack. Smith's struggles against men is not unexpected. very very few 18 or 19 year olds jump into the league and play a legit solid top 6 O or top 4 D. It can happen, but only for Bedard-likes and even he stunk defensively as a turnover machine.
The sharks will be better next year, but not likely to compete legitimately. I posted otherwise several weeks ago, but I changed my mind.
I think the best bet is an army of overpaid 1 yr deals for 27-29 year old players. The nice thing about these kind of deals is that they are basically automatic draft picks, potentially high ones, if the sharks fall out of the PO race, as quality rentals usually go for 1st and 2nd rounders, sometimes more. However, if the sharks do surprisingly well and make a real run for the POs, they can be extended for real $$$ and term with exclusive negotiating rights. And, what good 29 year old wouldnt want to resign with a team armed with a great prospect pool that just made a real run for the postseason, and who is fully familiar with everything?
Overpayment is OK for 1 yr deals.
I think targeting 27-29 year old UFAs for one year overpays is not so likely to be successful. That arrangements shifts all the risk on to the player. What happens if they get injured, have a down year, or simply do not mesh with the coach’s system?
Usually players accept one year deals when they have no other options with term because there are some concerns with their game, they don’t have a track record of success at the NHL level, or are coming off injury. Players sign one year deals when they have no other multi-year offers. These are not players that are likely to be difference makers or desirable enough to garner interest at the trade deadline, let alone offers involving 1st and 2nd round picks.
As an illustrative example, Barabanov and Lebanc are two players within your age range that are candidates for single-year “prove it” contracts. I didn’t see any reporting at the recent deadline of teams lining up to offer high draft picks for their services. Do we really foresee teams offering to overpay either so they can attempt to rebuild their value and flip them at the deadline? If they end up signing one year contracts, it will likely be because that is all that is offered to them.
I think most prime age UFAs are looking for, and will find teams that will oblige them with, 5/6/7 year contracts on a winning team. They get to execute agency on where they go and maybe don’t get top dollar (frankly, they still probably do) but they get some amount of certainty of where they will be for the next half decade of their career and a handsome paycheck. Why would they forgo that for roughly 30% of the money guaranteed with the explicit understanding that they’ll very likely be trade to a destination not of their choosing not even a year later?
Your strategy assumes a team can reap all the value out of the relationship and assume none of the risk, and that there is an “army” of players willing to forgo their own agency and assume all that risk for some greater amount of short term money. Seems like a recipe for a lot of unanswered voicemails on July 1st.
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