Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Shark Finn]

Personally, it's a lot easier being a fan of the Sharks now that the rebuild phase is actually ongoing. The way DW & Co. tried to hold on to the past and compete through a retool (or whatever you want to call that farce) was even more painful. No, rebuild is not a guarantee of success but I'd rather have a bit more hope.

 

[Jargon]

Personally, it's a lot easier being a fan of the Sharks now that the rebuild phase is actually ongoing. The way DW & Co. tried to hold on to the past and compete through a retool (or whatever you want to call that farce) was even more painful. No, rebuild is not a guarantee of success but I'd rather have a bit more hope.

I absolutely agree. It feels like something is actually being built and there’s a future to look forward to. Having a bunch of dissatisfied vets, no prospects and no cap space felt wildly hopeless.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Am I the only one who feels like Sheng is Kurz with less personality?

He constantly dumps on the Sharks, though he seems less motivated to piss people off as he seems to legit just have a really low view of the value of our players/prospects. I guess I might feel the same if I started covering the team during these later dark years.

Still, every time I listen to the podcast, I wonder why guys like Keegan don't get the job over guys like Sheng. He seems to actually like the team, while being sober minded about it.

With fans so naturally optimistic, I appreciate Sheng's dose of realism.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Pashelka wrote an article about Stamkos from todays game and if they get Celebrini, I'd offer Stamkos a 5-6x10m deal.

Weirdly, this crossed my mind last week.

He's won cups so I assume he's now after just a sunny pay day.
We won't be competitive for 3 years minimum.
I'd give him a 4 year, $8m AAV contract just to come be captain, the face of the franchise and - most importantly - mentor our young forwards (Celebrini, Smith, Musty, Eklund etc).
He can do that from IR as well

 

[spintops]

It's crazy to blame Grier for this mess. Doug ruined this team years ago and we are just dealing with the consequences of his moves now. Grier could have kept Meier+Hertl and continued being a bad but watchable team. He could have kept Hertl and maybe finished ahead of Chicago and some fans would have a sentimental reason to watch. I feel like he made the trades he had to make. Maybe we continue to be unlucky in the draft and the rebuild flames out without really working. But it's not like he had an alternate path IMO

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

Well if Pee Air is saying the rebuild is in trouble it means Grier is doing an outstanding job, it’s always inverse when Pee Air says anything

 

[Cas]

Who is Pierre McGuire and why should I care about his opinion?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Who are our targets in the offseason? Big wingers? Spend big on Defense? Im looking at the FA market and its all over the place.

Depends on the lottery but I imagine a lot of the offseason targets are going to be up front. Goaltending looks like it'll be Vanecek and Blackwood and there's a lot of blue liners still under contract. If we don't get Celebrini, we can afford to be patient for another season to tick down some contracts remaining but if there is pressure on Grier to compete, he may open up as many spots as he can and fill it with external acquisitions due to the amount of cap space we have to spend.

 

[TheBeard]

Depends on the lottery but I imagine a lot of the offseason targets are going to be up front. Goaltending looks like it'll be Vanecek and Blackwood and there's a lot of blue liners still under contract. If we don't get Celebrini, we can afford to be patient for another season to tick down some contracts remaining but if there is pressure on Grier to compete, he may open up as many spots as he can and fill it with external acquisitions due to the amount of cap space we have to spend.

At this point there's absolutely no reason to tick down some of the contracts remaining, especially if Logan is done. Even if he's not I'd rather just keep him around. Vlasic's only got two years left and I imagine trying to trade either one would require a retention spot we don't have to spare.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

At this point there's absolutely no reason to tick down some of the contracts remaining, especially if Logan is done. Even if he's not I'd rather just keep him around. Vlasic's only got two years left and I imagine trying to trade either one would require a retention spot we don't have to spare.

The reason to do so is to maintain cap flexibility until we have found someone to build around or collect enough young players to build a deep team. The reality is that our blue line is terrible and it is not an easy fix that can be done in one or two offseasons. I would still prefer to keep Vlasic until his contract expires unless we have a reason to push him into a buyout. Ferraro is useful to the team until someone is willing to give us a 1st round pick. Rutta is probably tradeable. The rest can be buried if necessary. The issue is where are we bringing in defensemen from. I have a very pessimistic view of what it would take for us to sign anyone of worth in free agency. There aren't a lot of appealing offensive defensemen available in the free agent market. Trading for one seems counterproductive for us given what we'd likely be asked to give up. I think they can go for big splashes up front without much worry but if we don't get Celebrini, we should avoid investing in anyone for more than three years.

 

[TheBeard]

The reason to do so is to maintain cap flexibility until we have found someone to build around or collect enough young players to build a deep team. The reality is that our blue line is terrible and it is not an easy fix that can be done in one or two offseasons. I would still prefer to keep Vlasic until his contract expires unless we have a reason to push him into a buyout. Ferraro is useful to the team until someone is willing to give us a 1st round pick. Rutta is probably tradeable. The rest can be buried if necessary. The issue is where are we bringing in defensemen from. I have a very pessimistic view of what it would take for us to sign anyone of worth in free agency. There aren't a lot of appealing offensive defensemen available in the free agent market. Trading for one seems counterproductive for us given what we'd likely be asked to give up. I think they can go for big splashes up front without much worry but if we don't get Celebrini, we should avoid investing in anyone for more than three years.

This is when you start using some of your picks and kids for other picks and kids like a David Jiricek. We have tons of cap flexibility now so getting rid of someone like Logan solely for the purpose of needing his cap space is unnecessary. If Thompson and Shakir can step in and be competent next year I'll be much more comfortable going forward. I would make a pitch for Chyrchryn in Ottawa or, on a lower tier try to get someone from a cash-strapped team who's got a year left. Someone older, like Ekblad. Monitor is someone else I'd be willing to overpay for on a 3-4 year deal.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is when you start using some of your picks and kids for other picks and kids like a David Jiricek. We have tons of cap flexibility now so getting rid of someone like Logan solely for the purpose of needing his cap space is unnecessary. If Thompson and Shakir can step in and be competent next year I'll be much more comfortable going forward. I would make a pitch for Chyrchryn in Ottawa or, on a lower tier try to get someone from a cash-strapped team who's got a year left. Someone older, like Ekblad. Monitor is someone else I'd be willing to overpay for on a 3-4 year deal.

I don't mind making pitches for free agents this offseason. The issue is that the quality of free agents this offseason seems low to me on the backend. Chychrun seems unlikely for us if he's already giving up on Ottawa for competitive reasons. I would like Ekblad too but that also seems unlikely for various reasons. He's got an NMC that turns into a 12 team NTC. I don't see how he would accept a trade to us. We don't really have anything to offer and I'm sure someone will take the chance on him in his final year if he and the team want to part ways. Montour is one I'd probably agree with you on if he's willing to do 3-4 years here but I will still have concerns with him. I don't trust that he'd be able to produce here like he has in Florida. I'm sure we'll do something on the backend but I'm also in no huge rush to do so if we don't land Celebrini.

 

[TheBeard]

I don't mind making pitches for free agents this offseason. The issue is that the quality of free agents this offseason seems low to me on the backend. Chychrun seems unlikely for us if he's already giving up on Ottawa for competitive reasons. I would like Ekblad too but that also seems unlikely for various reasons. He's got an NMC that turns into a 12 team NTC. I don't see how he would accept a trade to us. We don't really have anything to offer and I'm sure someone will take the chance on him in his final year if he and the team want to part ways. Montour is one I'd probably agree with you on if he's willing to do 3-4 years here but I will still have concerns with him. I don't trust that he'd be able to produce here like he has in Florida. I'm sure we'll do something on the backend but I'm also in no huge rush to do so if we don't land Celebrini.

I wouldn't give anything longer than 3 years and preferably go 2. The reason is we can't really overpay for anyone on a one-year "promise of a TDL move to a contender" because of the lack of retention spots. That's what I hate about the EK and Hertl deals. How much did we really get out of retaining a combined 3 million for the next 5-6 years in contrast to what we could have gained year in year out whether through retaining on our own pieces or just retaining as a third party on rentals.

I don't expect anyone to produce here the way they do on stacked teams, but I don't think GMs look at things from that perspective. They know the sharks are short-handed to put it nicely. I think what would be a good sell is the ability to handle the adversity of being on a struggling team.

 

[coooldude]

I wouldn't give anything longer than 3 years and preferably go 2. The reason is we can't really overpay for anyone on a one-year "promise of a TDL move to a contender" because of the lack of retention spots. That's what I hate about the EK and Hertl deals. How much did we really get out of retaining a combined 3 million for the next 5-6 years in contrast to what we could have gained year in year out whether through retaining on our own pieces or just retaining as a third party on rentals.

I don't expect anyone to produce here the way they do on stacked teams, but I don't think GMs look at things from that perspective. They know the sharks are short-handed to put it nicely. I think what would be a good sell is the ability to handle the adversity of being on a struggling team.

The rentals you're describing would be highly unlikely to net us 1st round picks.

The retention slots in the Hertl and EK65 deals gave us three.

 

[TheBeard]

The rentals you're describing would be highly unlikely to net us 1st round picks.

The retention slots in the Hertl and EK65 deals gave us three.

That's one, very simplistic way of looking at it. I would say in both cases it was the player and the retention that netted us the first round picks and in the case of EK, it was the player, the retention and taking back 15 million dollars in salary that got us the pick.

In terms of Vegas and Hertl, with 6 years or retention, an argument could be made that we could have accumulated far more draft capital value with that retention spot than a super late first rounder.

Again, I understand why it was done, but part of me feels Grier was a tad impatient out of fear he'd never get anything close to the value he got again.

In terms of rentals highly unlikely netting us 1sts, you're probably right, but there's also a ton of teams willing to do what Calgary did with Monahan. Imagine the idea of a team dumping a high-priced underperformer with a 2nd and a 3rd (for example). At worst that's what we get back, at best, well like I said, Hughes ended up getting two first rounders from Monahan.

 

[LilLeeroy]

That's one, very simplistic way of looking at it. I would say in both cases it was the player and the retention that netted us the first round picks and in the case of EK, it was the player, the retention and taking back 15 million dollars in salary that got us the pick.

In terms of Vegas and Hertl, with 6 years or retention, an argument could be made that we could have accumulated far more draft capital value with that retention spot than a super late first rounder.

Again, I understand why it was done, but part of me feels Grier was a tad impatient out of fear he'd never get anything close to the value he got again.

In terms of rentals highly unlikely netting us 1sts, you're probably right, but there's also a ton of teams willing to do what Calgary did with Monahan. Imagine the idea of a team dumping a high-priced underperformer with a 2nd and a 3rd (for example). At worst that's what we get back, at best, well like I said, Hughes ended up getting two first rounders from Monahan.

Hertl at 6.75 million until 2030 is still a bad contract. Edstrom and an unprotected fist was an offer way too good to pass up.

 

[coooldude]

That's one, very simplistic way of looking at it. I would say in both cases it was the player and the retention that netted us the first round picks and in the case of EK, it was the player, the retention and taking back 15 million dollars in salary that got us the pick.

In terms of Vegas and Hertl, with 6 years or retention, an argument could be made that we could have accumulated far more draft capital value with that retention spot than a super late first rounder.

Again, I understand why it was done, but part of me feels Grier was a tad impatient out of fear he'd never get anything close to the value he got again.

In terms of rentals highly unlikely netting us 1sts, you're probably right, but there's also a ton of teams willing to do what Calgary did with Monahan. Imagine the idea of a team dumping a high-priced underperformer with a 2nd and a 3rd (for example). At worst that's what we get back, at best, well like I said, Hughes ended up getting two first rounders from Monahan.

Yes, the deals required the players, and I absolutely agree that Grier acted out of fear he'd never get anything close to the value he got again.

I'd far rather a late 1st prospect from 2023, an 11-15 2024 pick OR unprotected 2025 1st, and an unprotected 2025 1st than 6-9 2/3rd rounders. There's already a historic dropoff from first half of first round to second half, let alone to second and third rounds, in terms of the likelihood you get a roster player let alone a good one. For me it's about quality over quantity. And, I happen to agree with Grier that I don't think he gets a better deal today for Karlsson, or next year or later for Hertl.

Did Monahan have a long term contract with a NMC, and is he over 30 with an injury history? No. It's not a comparable deal. It would be more comparable to compare that trade to the Meier trade IMHO.

 

[TheBeard]

and is he over 30 with an injury history

He’s turning 30 with an injury history.

Also, I don’t have a problem with the retention on Hertl and i don’t have a problem with the retention on EK. I have a problem with the retention on both. I still liked the Erik trade and I’m still on record as not being happy with the Hertl one.

 

[coooldude]

He’s turning 30 with an injury history.

Also, I don’t have a problem with the retention on Hertl and i don’t have a problem with the retention on EK. I have a problem with the retention on both. I still liked the Erik trade and I’m still on record as not being happy with the Hertl one.

That's fair, we're just on different sides with the Hertl trade.

Yes, 30 with an injury history, but a pending UFA rather than a long-term NMC contract. More than anything, that's what hurt us with Burns, EK65, and Hertl, more than anything that's why there's zero hope of trading Vlasic or Couture even if they hadn't had their respective troubles. DW's final gift and mistake(s).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I wouldn't give anything longer than 3 years and preferably go 2. The reason is we can't really overpay for anyone on a one-year "promise of a TDL move to a contender" because of the lack of retention spots. That's what I hate about the EK and Hertl deals. How much did we really get out of retaining a combined 3 million for the next 5-6 years in contrast to what we could have gained year in year out whether through retaining on our own pieces or just retaining as a third party on rentals.

I don't expect anyone to produce here the way they do on stacked teams, but I don't think GMs look at things from that perspective. They know the sharks are short-handed to put it nicely. I think what would be a good sell is the ability to handle the adversity of being on a struggling team.

We'll free one retention slot after next season so I think we can overpay on anything with two or more years attached to it. The issue is if all we're going to get out of that are more of the Nico Sturms or Kyle Burroughs types of replacement level players then it's not going to get us much. It seems much harder to get players in that middle six forward or 2nd pairing defenseman level without giving them 4 or more years. At that point, you're basically trying to compete with them.

 

[Hodge]

but there's also a ton of teams willing to do what Calgary did with Monahan.

Patently false. The flat cap era is over. Something like the Monahan trade to Montreal (team gets a 1st to take a 1 year cap dump) will probably never happen again.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Personally, it's a lot easier being a fan of the Sharks now that the rebuild phase is actually ongoing. The way DW & Co. tried to hold on to the past and compete through a retool (or whatever you want to call that farce) was even more painful. No, rebuild is not a guarantee of success but I'd rather have a bit more hope.

Completely agree. It's now very clear towards what end I should be hoping for which is a loss every game. This is a not amazing feeling, but it's way better than the middling nonsense of years past.

 

[Cas]

Depends on the lottery but I imagine a lot of the offseason targets are going to be up front. Goaltending looks like it'll be Vanecek and Blackwood and there's a lot of blue liners still under contract. If we don't get Celebrini, we can afford to be patient for another season to tick down some contracts remaining but if there is pressure on Grier to compete, he may open up as many spots as he can and fill it with external acquisitions due to the amount of cap space we have to spend.

We are far too far away for Celebrini to matter materially to our record - we will remain one of the worst teams in the league next year unless a buncy of prospects all hit their maximum ceiling at the same time.

 

[TheBeard]

We'll free one retention slot after next season so I think we can overpay on anything with two or more years attached to it. The issue is if all we're going to get out of that are more of the Nico Sturms or Kyle Burroughs types of replacement level players then it's not going to get us much. It seems much harder to get players in that middle six forward or 2nd pairing defenseman level without giving them 4 or more years. At that point, you're basically trying to compete with them.

I think having that retention spot in two years will make it significantly easier to move a viable middle six piece for a bounty (whomever that is) on the last year of a deal. We'd def get more from those types than a Nico Sturm for cheap which wont require retention.

Completely agree. It's now very clear towards what end I should be hoping for which is a loss every game. This is a not amazing feeling, but it's way better than the middling nonsense of years past.

A direction is nice, but as we've seen from teams like Anaheim, just having good prospects doesn't mean all that much. It may, but nothing is guaranteed except our misery during the down times.

 

[TheBeard]

Patently false. The flat cap era is over. Something like the Monahan trade to Montreal (team gets a 1st to take a 1 year cap dump) will probably never happen again.

As we've seen with what teams do now to skirt around cap issues, it's not over. Teams will copy the Vegas template of overpaying for retention.