I know it's a team sport but the players who shoulder most of the blame are Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Bo Bichette - if these three guys had the seasons they were projected to have, the Jays could seriously be right up there with NYY. If you look up and down the roster, these three guys have been the most dissapointing by a landslide.
Kikuchi was signed to replace Matz but it hasn't happened at all. Matz had a 113 ERA+ last year as our #5 guy while Yusei has a 77 ERA+ as our #5 guy - he's got great stuff but he can't seem to be put it together
Berrios might be the biggest one to blame. Traded two top prospects to get him, paid him 9 figures over 7 years, and was our opening day start...yet he's pitching like someone who shouldn't even be in the majors for a lot of this season. He has the highest ERA among all starters in the whole league, he's surrendered the most home runs and earned runs in the entire league, and his ERA+ is 53 (!!!) points lower than it was last year. The team has had to play catch-up on so many occasions because of how many runs cross the plate when he's pitching
Bichette is also another big offender. His OPS+ is 15 points lower than last year, he's not getting on base, he's not stealing bases, he's a rally killer because he's been awful hitting with RISP, and his K rate is 6% higher than last years (he's about to match his total strikeout rate from last year and it's only mid-August) - dude can't put the ball in play consistently or even work a count and teams are catching onto this. If Bo cannot adjust, he'll become the next Javy Baez rather than the next Jose Altuve.
Everyone else has held up their end of the bargain. Sure, Vladdy's numbers are down but then again, you can't expect him to have such a legendary year every single season, he's still putting up elite numbers this year. Springer's production is a bit down but that's mostly because of his elbow injury, as long as he can get healthy again when things really matter, I'm not worried about him. Chapman and Teo got off to horrendous starts but have bounced back very strongly, can't complain about their production despite the high K rates (it's always been part of their profile). Kirk and Gurriel have been flat out elite. Espinal is doing everything you can ask for from a 8/9-hitter who plays excellent defense.
Manoah and Gausman have been tremendous and are easily one of the best 1-2 duos in the league. Ryu's injury sucks but honestly, Stripling's production this year has been better than anything Ryu has displayed since early on in 2021.
Unlike 2021, you can't even blame the bullpen that much. The guys that are supposed to be good have delivered for the most part from Romano, Cimber, Mayza, Bass, Pop, Phelps, Garcia etc. sure, Trevor Richards has been a disappointment but if you're relying on him to be a difference maker you're a fool lol. The bullpen has honestly not been as bad as I thought it would be and it's clearly no longer a glaring weakness for the team like it was last year.
Kikuchi is probably the odd one out once Stripling comes back as we now have Mitch White to be our #5 guy but Berrios and Bichette MUST get better if this team wants any chance at one, getting into the playoffs, and two, actually doing something in the playoffs.