Blue Jays GDT: 2022 v4 | Next: Sun, May 29 | @ LAA | 4:00pm ET/1:00pm PT | Berrios vs Sandoval

[lebdafor norris]

Eh, I give them a break when playing in crappy weather like that. Still made it close.


Apparently something about WAR or whatever. And cheaper than Grichuk or...something (which we didn't benefit from). You know, the usual armchair GM stuff. Stick with my posts if you want the good stuff.

Did get Pinto out of that deal though.

Tapia is barely a replacement lvl player if you look at his career WAR numbers and has been a below replacement level player for the Jays this year, trust me, fangraphs WAR has not been very flattering to Tapia.

 

[GoonieFace]

Or maybe the Jays telling him to not change his swing like the White Sox did unlocked the bat that was always there. Even since he's been colder he's still been hitting the ball really hard. There's a potential diamond there and moving him to a full-time DH/1B role could unlock even more as he'd no longer have to focus on catching at all, which he's terrible at.

You think Collins is a major league and Kirk is a minor leaguer? Enough said, you have no clue

 

[Bjindaho]

Collins has a 117 wRC+ right now. Of the guys who have 50PA or more the only guys better this year have been Vlad and Springer.

The negative fWAR is because he's an awful, horrible catcher, but the bat was legit to start, and he's still mashing balls even if they're not dropping. Him off the bench or in the DH spot is no issue whatsoever imo.

Tapia doesn't bring anything for me. Zimmer at least has +defense, and speed for a PR as he can't ever get on f***ing base. Heineman... is here because Jansen is hurt and Collins is so so bad defensively.

Collins also has a 42% K rate, meaning that he is due for a sharp regression. But Collins is far from the problem, because he is our 3rd catcher, and our starter is hurt, so he has to be here.

Heineman should not be here. At some point, we need to try one of our AAA guys who can play OF (or literally any other option) rather than trotting out Zimmer and Tapia every game. While either one is an asset by themselves, together they destroy the lineup. Teo coming back will alleviate a lot of this pressure, though.

I'm starting to understand that we've been limited in callups because Taylor has regressed back to the swing and miss (no idea what has changed), Lopez was late starting (so he's not up to speed), Groshans was hurt (so he's late on progress), Moreno isn't ready, Lukes is a question of whether he is hoping that the grass is greener.

I would really love to see Groshans force his way up at some point, because we have playing time that we could give him between resting infielders and potentially playing him at corner OF.

 

[Bjindaho]

Fully healthy, management makes lineup decisions easy. Not healthy, whomever is responsible for the lineup continues to make key mistakes (like leading Tapia off).

I guarantee Gurriel wouldn't say no to more AB so he could lead off if Bo and Vladdy didn't want to move up (but why the hell wouldn't they).

 

[Morgs]

Collins also has a 42% K rate, meaning that he is due for a sharp regression. But Collins is far from the problem, because he is our 3rd catcher, and our starter is hurt, so he has to be here.

Heineman should not be here. At some point, we need to try one of our AAA guys who can play OF (or literally any other option) rather than trotting out Zimmer and Tapia every game. While either one is an asset by themselves, together they destroy the lineup. Teo coming back will alleviate a lot of this pressure, though.

I'm starting to understand that we've been limited in callups because Taylor has regressed back to the swing and miss (no idea what has changed), Lopez was late starting (so he's not up to speed), Groshans was hurt (so he's late on progress), Moreno isn't ready, Lukes is a question of whether he is hoping that the grass is greener.

I would really love to see Groshans force his way up at some point, because we have playing time that we could give him between resting infielders and potentially playing him at corner OF.

I'd say it's more likely we see some positive regression with him.

His BB% is WAY down from his career numbers - 13% career, 4% this year, and his K% is WAY up this year 33.4% career, 42% on the season. He's swinging slightly less than his career but he's chasing slightly more.

The massive change this year and why I see the positive despite the increase in K's is that he simply isn't hitting the ball softly.... AT ALL. 3.8% soft contact. If he can cut down the K% at all and continue crushing the ball I cant see how he doesn't keep this up, especially if they use him as a RHP platoon.

 

[Discoverer]

Fully healthy, management makes lineup decisions easy. Not healthy, whomever is responsible for the lineup continues to make key mistakes (like leading Tapia off).

I guarantee Gurriel wouldn't say no to more AB so he could lead off if Bo and Vladdy didn't want to move up (but why the hell wouldn't they).

There seems to be something mystical about the leadoff spot where players are either comfortable there or they're not. It's weird. We kind of saw it play out with the 2015 team... a lineup loaded with star offensive players, but they all either didn't like hitting leadoff or struggled when they did. Thus, we got some extra Ben Revere.

 

[MS]

There seems to be something mystical about the leadoff spot where players are either comfortable there or they're not. It's weird. We kind of saw it play out with the 2015 team... a lineup loaded with star offensive players, but they all either didn't like hitting leadoff or struggled when they did. Thus, we got some extra Ben Revere.

Yeah, the simplest explanation for the horrific Tapia-leading-off stuff would be that Bichette just isn't comfortable leading off and has asked not to be put in that position.

The problem with that is that Bichette has actually raked in the leadoff spot over his career - .871 OPS vs. .800 in the #2 spot. It should be the most basic thing ever to just put Bichette-Guerrero 1-2 in the lineup when Springer is out.

 

[Eyedea]

There seems to be something mystical about the leadoff spot where players are either comfortable there or they're not. It's weird. We kind of saw it play out with the 2015 team... a lineup loaded with star offensive players, but they all either didn't like hitting leadoff or struggled when they did. Thus, we got some extra Ben Revere.

2015 was bad because Bautista honestly would've crushed leadoff as nobody was getting him out, but they went through the Reyes/Tulo carousel until they landed on Revere. 2016 was a little more creative but Bautista had a rather sharp decline so he wasn't super effective there. By the end of that season Zeke was miraculously the most effective option at leadoff (at least against righties).

 

[Vector]

Yeah, the simplest explanation for the horrific Tapia-leading-off stuff would be that Bichette just isn't comfortable leading off and has asked not to be put in that position.

The problem with that is that Bichette has actually raked in the leadoff spot over his career - .871 OPS vs. .800 in the #2 spot. It should be the most basic thing ever to just put Bichette-Guerrero 1-2 in the lineup when Springer is out.

If he were healthy, and managed to work his way into the lineup, then Biggio is worth another go around. He's most comfortable leading off and, at the very least, can take a lot of pitches. His best seasons were leading off.

 

[TGB]

Tapia is barely a replacement lvl player if you look at his career WAR numbers and has been a below replacement level player for the Jays this year, trust me, fangraphs WAR has not been very flattering to Tapia.

I know, and you don't need WAR to figure that out, but the WAR hounds around here were defending him when the trade was made or, more accurately, crapping on Grichuk (who is playing great right now). Not sure where they get their confidence from. They're never right and they love to hide in the rafters, coming down only to take pot shots at people when a player has ONE good game. And then they go back into hiding.

The thing is Tapia does have some potential, and serving as a backup during injuries is fine. He can't find his bat if he isn't playing. The real issue is HOW he's being used: they keep putting him high in the order. And then there is the compete level. Not very aggressive on fly balls and Kirk runs out ground balls harder than Tapia does.

If he were healthy, and managed to work his way into the lineup, then Biggio is worth another go around. He's most comfortable leading off and, at the very least, can take a lot of pitches. His best seasons were leading off.

Unfortunately, there aren't many other places to play him at this point. He is useful as a 5th outfielder and backup 2B/bonus lefty, but as a starter the only real good place for him takes Espinal out of the line-up or at DH which impacts a lot of other great batters. Not only that, but even at his best he works more as a low in the order batter, the kind of guy who doesn't hit for average, but gets on base a fair bit for the guys batting at the top of the order and has enough power to surprise any pitcher who assumes who underestimates his spot in the order. If he's pushing 400 OBP that's a different story, but he's been absolutely owned by umpires since he has reached the majors and that's never going to change until they implement electronic strike zones.

 

[Eyedea]

Moving on from Grichuk was fine because at his price tag and for what he brought, he just didn’t hold a lot of value as our 4th OF. Even though he’s been great offensively to start the year, how about his defence? (already -4 OOA)

Tapia was never a good hitter, all of us WAR nerds knew. We also knew Montoyo would give him regular rotation and fill in for Springer at leadoff to not mess around with guys in their regular spots. Nobody suspected we’d be in a position where we’d have to rely on Tapia and Zimmer for regular ABs at the same time though. One or the other (preferably Zimmer for plus defence), that’s all we ask.

 

[The Nemesis]

I am sure I have read posts praising him. I mean defensively he seems okay. But why do they keep playing him. We need more out of that position. And then to put im in the leadoff? I guess thats why I am not a manager. And Charlie is.

Most of the praising has been sarcasm outside of praise in the moment when he does something good.

In a perfect world he'd be what he was supposed to be: the 4th OF. But a perfect world isn't the one where Teoscar's been hurt most of the season so far and they still need to give Springer regular rest to ensure he doesn't hurt himself.

 

[The Nemesis]

Meanwhile, today's game has been postponed due to inclement weather and will be made up tomorrow in a "traditional" doubleheader. From what I understand, we're back to full 9-inning games for doubleheaders as well.

Game 1 is now scheduled to go at 2pm ET/11am PT with Stripling on the mound opposite Triston McKenzie. Game 2 has a TBA start time (likely 30-60 minutes after game 1 wraps) and there is no listed starter for either team.

Today's lost pitching matchup was Gausman vs Bieber, for whatever that's worth.

 

[trellaine201]

Perfect time for a day off IMO.

 

[Kurtz]

Moving on from Grichuk was fine because at his price tag and for what he brought, he just didn’t hold a lot of value as our 4th OF. Even though he’s been great offensively to start the year, how about his defence? (already -4 OOA)

Tapia was never a good hitter, all of us WAR nerds knew. We also knew Montoyo would give him regular rotation and fill in for Springer at leadoff to not mess around with guys in their regular spots. Nobody suspected we’d be in a position where we’d have to rely on Tapia and Zimmer for regular ABs at the same time though. One or the other (preferably Zimmer for plus defence), that’s all we ask.

Tapia's numbers away from Coors were just brutal. Really, really strange pickup.

The rain postponement gets Teo back into the lineup tomorrow, hopefully he can play both games and that's the last we hear from mr. Tapia for a while.

 

[Bjindaho]

Tapia's numbers away from Coors were just brutal. Really, really strange pickup.

The rain postponement gets Teo back into the lineup tomorrow, hopefully he can play both games and that's the last we hear from mr. Tapia for a while.

I expect Teo to DH one. I could see Springer DHing the other.

 

[MS]

Tapia's numbers away from Coors were just brutal. Really, really strange pickup.

The rain postponement gets Teo back into the lineup tomorrow, hopefully he can play both games and that's the last we hear from mr. Tapia for a while.

I just looked this up and holy jesus they're awful.

In both of his full seasons (2019 and 2021) he put up and OPS+ in the 50 range on the road. Which is right where he's at this year again.

When he hasn't been at Coors, he's generally hit at a level marginally better than Madison Bumgarner.

 

[GoodNewfieBoy]

Are double headers still 7 innings ?

 

[The Nemesis]

Are double headers still 7 innings ?

I don't think so. I think it's back to a standard 9 innings.

 

[Bjindaho]

Tapia's numbers away from Coors were just brutal. Really, really strange pickup.

The rain postponement gets Teo back into the lineup tomorrow, hopefully he can play both games and that's the last we hear from mr. Tapia for a while.

I think this was universally ignored because a guy who hits everything on the ground doesn't really benefit from Coors.

He's partially suffering from small sample size (we hope) because his walks are down and Ks are up).

He has hit a lot less grounders and his hard contact is up.

Note: I am not arguing that he's going to become better than a 4th OF, but using current stats with a guy who clearly has changed his swing ignores basic improvements as he refines his new swing.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Kurtz]

I think this was universally ignored because a guy who hits everything on the ground doesn't really benefit from Coors.

We have cold, hard, stats over several baseball seasons proving otherwise.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Lost his command = Pitching around Espinal and Kirk to face the useless useful Tapia probably

 

[The Nemesis]

It all comes down to Tapia. Just like Charlie planned it.

 

[The Nemesis]

What a hero. I knew he had it in him. He's the best.