Suntouchable13
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Remember how Semien started last year? Nobody thought he would hit 45 bombs. Just give it time, is my point.
Blue Jays GDT: 2022 v1 | Wed, Apr 13 | @ NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Cole
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Remember how Semien started last year? Nobody thought he would hit 45 bombs. Just give it time, is my point.
Through a paltry 5 games, he is 7th among 3B in Def score (Fangraphs).
You can't judge based on 5 games. Also FWIW, Bo is currently 7th among SS over the 5 games.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
To be fair any one of Biggio, Teoscar, or Springer could also set the strikeout record for the Jays if they had a full season of ABs. Just last year 10 guys matched or had more Ks than Bautista's 2017 season and 7 of them were ~3+ fWAR players (the others being Sano, Duvall, and Eugenio Suarez). Chapman has faults but is still a valuable player.
Bluelines
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I wonder if putting him higher in the line up would force opposing pitchers to give him more fastballs? The thinking is no one wants to face Bo, Teo or Vlad with runners on, so maybe pitchers challenge him more with fastballs. He strikes out so damn much I'm not sure you could afford to put him 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.
Suntouchable13
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Most studies on batter protection and lineup construction suggest that whatever the internal belief by various players is in terms of lineup protection existing or not, the actual effect that the batters around a guy have on his performance or the approach of pitchers against him is negligible at best and non-existent at worst and in its most pure, "true to the truism" form it's more significantly driven by the actions and behaviors of each individual pitcher in the situation than it is by a grand, unifying immutable law of baseball. There might be a marginal improvement for poor hitters who have good hitters ahead of them who are getting on base, but that's potentially more about the value of and alterations caused by men on base than it is the actual quality of the hitter. There might also be a tiny uptick in walk rate but Chapman already walks a very respectable ~10% of the time so it's not likely that he's going to suddenly see a big increase. And the one thing that a lot of lineup protection discussions seem to agree on is that it seems pretty concrete that protection doesn't automatically equate to more big, juicy fastballs to feast on.
And realistically speaking if he's batting 7th or 8th in the lineup then he's going to have times where he becomes a danger the pitchers have to deal with because there's a reasonable chance he could get on base for the 1-2 slots in the lineup when it turns over.
Honestly I think it's just fine to leave him where he is if he's cool with hitting there. If he has some kind of ego/confidence driven need to not hit 8th then maybe you deal with it. My ideal current lineup would probably be
Springer
Guerrero
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
Kirk
Espinal
Chapman
catcher when it's not Kirk/DH when it's not one of the other regulars (maybe Biggio)
further reading on lineup protection:
Leadoff Protection | Articles | Bill James Online
www.billjamesonline.com
Joey Votto and Protection Up Front
Twice this offseason, Joey Votto has uttered a comment that goes against the baseball orthodoxy that lineup protection is best done behind the hitter. Votto believes it is done in front of him…
Overthinking It: Robinson Cano and the Latest Debate About Lineup Protection | Baseball Prospectus
Has the Yankees' sole healthy slugger suffered because of the players batting behind him?
Lineup Protection Exists, Doesn't
The idea of lineup protection is a site where inherited wisdom clashes with sabermetric analysis, but neither side is wrong about it.
www.beyondtheboxscore.com
What Would Lineup Protection Look Like?
Bully for the 2012 Detroit Tigers. While the Tigers fell a little shy of winning the World Series, they did manage to accomplish more than 28 other teams, and they got as far as they did in large part…
Pitching Around Batters
A special excerpt from The Book, courtesy of co-author Tangotiger.
Let’s talk about lineup protection
How should Arizona build it's lineup behind Paul Goldschmidt?
insidethezona.com
Lineup Protection Exists
This post analyzes potential impacts of "reverse protection". It essentially asks whether good hitters help the batters in the lineup that hit behind them and how much of an impact this can make on a player's overall offensive productivity.
www.bluebirdbanter.com
Personally I think that lineup protection might exist in the way clutchness "exists": That is to say that the negative form of it is a thing that creates the illusion of the positive. Good hitters might not be helped by being insulated by equally good or better other hitters, but they may more definitively be hurt by being stuck in bad lineups. If the Jays were a lineup of Vladdy and 8 Joe Paniks then yeah he would be pitched around every single time because why not take your chances that you can get 3 Paniks out before they string together enough hits/walks to cash Vladdy in. But in a normal game with a normal lineup and normal distribution of talent Vladdy isn't going to see a ton more (and easier to hit) fastballs in the zone hitting with 2 of Springer/Bo/Teoscar around him than he would if he were hitting, say... 4th in this lineup and was backed up by Gurriel-Kirk-Chapman. Just the same as while I think there are absolutely guys who might come up short in tense, high leverage situations, I vehemently disagree with the notion that "clutch" players elevate their play in important situations because a history of evidence suggests that there are far too few players with sufficiently better high leverage situational splits in a significant enough sample size to draw any real conclusions from.
PanniniClaus
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Tufted Titmouse
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There is one exception to the rule. When a player has virtually no protection, there is no incentive to give them a real chance (ie if you face Cincy, Votto should see your lefties as much as humanly possible because they struggle w lefties)Most studies on batter protection and lineup construction suggest that whatever the internal belief by various players is in terms of lineup protection existing or not, the actual effect that the batters around a guy have on his performance or the approach of pitchers against him is negligible at best and non-existent at worst and in its most pure, "true to the truism" form it's more significantly driven by the actions and behaviors of each individual pitcher in the situation than it is by a grand, unifying immutable law of baseball. There might be a marginal improvement for poor hitters who have good hitters ahead of them who are getting on base, but that's potentially more about the value of and alterations caused by men on base than it is the actual quality of the hitter. There might also be a tiny uptick in walk rate but Chapman already walks a very respectable ~10% of the time so it's not likely that he's going to suddenly see a big increase. And the one thing that a lot of lineup protection discussions seem to agree on is that it seems pretty concrete that protection doesn't automatically equate to more big, juicy fastballs to feast on.
And realistically speaking if he's batting 7th or 8th in the lineup then he's going to have times where he becomes a danger the pitchers have to deal with because there's a reasonable chance he could get on base for the 1-2 slots in the lineup when it turns over.
Honestly I think it's just fine to leave him where he is if he's cool with hitting there. If he has some kind of ego/confidence driven need to not hit 8th then maybe you deal with it. My ideal current lineup would probably be
Springer
Guerrero
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
Kirk
Espinal
Chapman
catcher when it's not Kirk/DH when it's not one of the other regulars (maybe Biggio)
further reading on lineup protection:
Leadoff Protection | Articles | Bill James Online
www.billjamesonline.comJoey Votto and Protection Up Front
Twice this offseason, Joey Votto has uttered a comment that goes against the baseball orthodoxy that lineup protection is best done behind the hitter. Votto believes it is done in front of him…blogs.fangraphs.com
Overthinking It: Robinson Cano and the Latest Debate About Lineup Protection | Baseball Prospectus
Has the Yankees' sole healthy slugger suffered because of the players batting behind him?www.baseballprospectus.com
Lineup Protection Exists, Doesn't
The idea of lineup protection is a site where inherited wisdom clashes with sabermetric analysis, but neither side is wrong about it.What Would Lineup Protection Look Like?
Bully for the 2012 Detroit Tigers. While the Tigers fell a little shy of winning the World Series, they did manage to accomplish more than 28 other teams, and they got as far as they did in large part…Pitching Around Batters
A special excerpt from The Book, courtesy of co-author Tangotiger.Let’s talk about lineup protection
How should Arizona build it's lineup behind Paul Goldschmidt?Lineup Protection Exists
This post analyzes potential impacts of "reverse protection". It essentially asks whether good hitters help the batters in the lineup that hit behind them and how much of an impact this can make on a player's overall offensive productivity.
Personally I think that lineup protection might exist in the way clutchness "exists": That is to say that the negative form of it is a thing that creates the illusion of the positive. Good hitters might not be helped by being insulated by equally good or better other hitters, but they may more definitively be hurt by being stuck in bad lineups. If the Jays were a lineup of Vladdy and 8 Joe Paniks then yeah he would be pitched around every single time because why not take your chances that you can get 3 Paniks out before they string together enough hits/walks to cash Vladdy in. But in a normal game with a normal lineup and normal distribution of talent Vladdy isn't going to see a ton more (and easier to hit) fastballs in the zone hitting with 2 of Springer/Bo/Teoscar around him than he would if he were hitting, say... 4th in this lineup and was backed up by Gurriel-Kirk-Chapman. Just the same as while I think there are absolutely guys who might come up short in tense, high leverage situations, I vehemently disagree with the notion that "clutch" players elevate their play in important situations because a history of evidence suggests that there are far too few players with sufficiently better high leverage situational splits in a significant enough sample size to draw any real conclusions from.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Didn't realize this thread was over 1k. I'm not switching now though. It'll stay up until after tonight's game.
Stupid Rogers and their SN1 rip-off...
It's not that I won't subscribe to it. I did, then cancelled when I didn't need it anymore, but they just kept charging me for it.
It's not that I won't subscribe to it. I did, then cancelled when I didn't need it anymore, but they just kept charging me for it.
Forgotusername
Registered User
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Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Nice to see Vladdy get to Cole already. Hopefully rest of lineup can do so too and give us some cushion.
Seath The Scaleless
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Suntouchable13
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trellaine201
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