2022 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #5
- Thread starter Morgs
- Start date
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Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Holmberg. In two years he's gone from virtually a nothing prospect to a first line, .9 PPG, dominant 2-way C that has won playoff MVP in the 3rd best league in the world. Very excited to watch him impact our bottom-6 this upcoming season.
Add Lisowsky.
Add Lisowsky.
Holmberg, think he is sooooo underrated here. If he was coming as a signing everyone would be excited.
Add Ovchinnikov
Add Ovchinnikov
daethfromabove1979
Registered User
- Jun 20, 2006
- 2,215
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Isaac Nootin
Registered User
- Sep 28, 2017
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TheDoldrums
Registered User
Definitely gets challenging here. Going with Minten, I think he has the most plausible upside left with his age/size/position factored in.
Add Curtis Douglas
Add Curtis Douglas
Canada4Gold
Registered User
- Dec 22, 2010
- 43,235
- 9,426
Pontus. Like Morgs said, I think we sleep on this guy abit.
Add Kral.
I also think we’ll end up sleeping in RoniH
Add Kral.
I also think we’ll end up sleeping in RoniH
Apex Predator
Registered User
- Jun 21, 2019
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Magic Man
Registered User
Big drop-off after the top 4, gets a lot harder to rank for a bit.
IMO a case can be made for any of Minten, Holmberg, Abruzzese, Hirvonen or Steeves. Holmberg, Abruzzese and Steeves are the best/most NHL ready right now, but Holmberg and Abruzzese are both 23, Steeves is 22, and I believe they're all capped out at roughly mediocre middle 6 upside (as a rough ceiling - most likely outcome for all of them is more "borderline NHLer", in and out of the lineup). Hirvonen, similar upside IMO, but younger/less far along in his development.
I'll go Minten for the upside. 6'1", very good 2 way player, strong motor (great forechecker), good hockey IQ, effective down low/in front of the net. He hasn't shown a tonne offensively, but there are raw tools there, and he definitely needs to work on his skating, but the rest of his game is very good, and at 18 he still has plenty of time to improve that skating and get more aggressive offensively. Then obviously Leafs scouts like him, and we have pretty good scouts. I'm certainly not confident he'll end up better than Holmberg/Abruzzese/Hirvonen/Steeves, but I am confident none of those guys have particularly high upside, while Minten's upside is more uncertain at his age, could be the highest of the group. Keep in mind that he's really young, even for his draft year - he was 17 all of last season, only turned 18 two weeks ago, he's at an age where him taking massive leaps forward is quite likely.
IMO a case can be made for any of Minten, Holmberg, Abruzzese, Hirvonen or Steeves. Holmberg, Abruzzese and Steeves are the best/most NHL ready right now, but Holmberg and Abruzzese are both 23, Steeves is 22, and I believe they're all capped out at roughly mediocre middle 6 upside (as a rough ceiling - most likely outcome for all of them is more "borderline NHLer", in and out of the lineup). Hirvonen, similar upside IMO, but younger/less far along in his development.
I'll go Minten for the upside. 6'1", very good 2 way player, strong motor (great forechecker), good hockey IQ, effective down low/in front of the net. He hasn't shown a tonne offensively, but there are raw tools there, and he definitely needs to work on his skating, but the rest of his game is very good, and at 18 he still has plenty of time to improve that skating and get more aggressive offensively. Then obviously Leafs scouts like him, and we have pretty good scouts. I'm certainly not confident he'll end up better than Holmberg/Abruzzese/Hirvonen/Steeves, but I am confident none of those guys have particularly high upside, while Minten's upside is more uncertain at his age, could be the highest of the group. Keep in mind that he's really young, even for his draft year - he was 17 all of last season, only turned 18 two weeks ago, he's at an age where him taking massive leaps forward is quite likely.
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HockeyVirus
16/34/88/91/44 - Pathetic losers
- Nov 15, 2020
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One thing I noticed is Ty Voit is underrated around here. I think this has to be Minton given the Leafs are high enough on him to have him ranked as a first round pick (if we believe what they say).
After that though, Holmberg and Voit IMO are the next two in whichever order.
After that though, Holmberg and Voit IMO are the next two in whichever order.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Eh. Firstly just because the Leafs have him ranked there doesn't mean everyone else does. Some of us followed the draft for a year+ and I personally have Minten 7th in our pool behind Holmberg and Hirvonen and 47th in the draft, and I'm the one that was convincing everyone of his offensive upside in his thread. The Leafs drafted Moldenhauer at 96th (I had him 90th) and Lisowsky 218th (I had him 59th). I can tell you who I'll be voting for if it was between the two of them. To be honest if we gave Pano Fimis a contract tomorrow he'd be 6th ranked for me as I had him 41st.
As for Voit, I don't think he's overly underrated. He's a guy that's a borderline 2nd tier player at this point. For a guy who missed his entire D0, he came out strong for a late pick and had a very good D1 season on a low scoring team, virtually carrying it himself. The production though wasn't special, and although it certainly moved him up the rankings, he's [imo] still behind guys that have either been more impressive at similar ages, or guys with similar ceilings closer to the NHL level. Holmberg, Hirvonen, Minten, Abruzzese, Tverberg, and Steeves all have a case to be ahead of him relatively easily. He's on par with a Kokkonen, Lisowsky, Kral, who if you squint *could* be part of that listed group above. He needs a massive year of development here as he's definitely going back to the OHL, and needs to improve on a very good season with little help again to not have a Abramov-type stall to his production.
HockeyVirus
16/34/88/91/44 - Pathetic losers
- Nov 15, 2020
- 21,303
- 32,451
That's fair. I just think with all of the fair debates we have on here about our current front office, one thing we know for sure is they are excellent at finding first round talent in the top 60 of a draft. I haven't watched the players as much as you, but I think Minten has a lot more to give than he has shown.
One thing for sure we know is he has high IQ, plays a great two way game, and has grease to his game. He had an unsustainably low shooting% for the first half of his year. Despite the lack of scoring on paper, he produced very high 5v5 and had a high shot volume.
I think next season he will be talked about in the same way we talked about Roberston and Knies after their draft+1. They took him because they saw he was way better than he looked.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
It's extremely possible. The guys offensive upside is pretty massive as there's only a handful of guys that were able to put up .9 PPG in their U17 years in the WHL, and most ended up being top-15 picks, but he stagnated last year in a limited role on a great team. His profile is actually extremely similar to Knies imo; they both have a heavy shot used potentially too often, functional physicality, has issues with passing, above average-ish skater, solid foundation for a 2-way player, stagnated production in D0. The thing is though that Knies took a massive leap his D1, which caused the rise. Minten still has to do that, but he's also like 10 months younger than Knies was on draft day.
Maplebeasts
I See Demons!!!!!
daethfromabove1979
Registered User
- Jun 20, 2006
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If you vote for Lisowsky over Moldenhauer, you're saying you know more than the Leafs scouts and the other 31 teams that let Lisowsky go in the 7th round. Doesn't make much sense to me.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Lmao, that's a very literal take.
Or it means that of the hours I put into my draft rankings, I had one guy significantly higher than the other. I also had Niemela ~15 spots ahead of Hirvonen and 7 spots behind Amirov in 2020 and look at how everyone has them ranked now compared to where they were picked. For all we know the Leafs could have had them in the same group a couple picks apart from each other and because Lisowsky is small they felt there was a better chance he would fall to a later pick of theirs.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Hmm I thought I was a bigger fan of Holmberg than most...but I wouldn't put him top 5 in the system so I guess not.
I'll say that if you do think he's a top 5 prospect in the system then at age 23 this year you should be pencilling him as a full time NHLer this year.
I'll say that if you do think he's a top 5 prospect in the system then at age 23 this year you should be pencilling him as a full time NHLer this year.
PROUD PAPA
Registered User
- Sep 20, 2021
- 3,048
- 3,481
Minten add Villeneuve
I made it to a couple Blazers games last season but hope to attend more this season. It's nice having one of our better prospects in my backyard.
I made it to a couple Blazers games last season but hope to attend more this season. It's nice having one of our better prospects in my backyard.
I had the feeling he was in the mix competing for a spot with the 4 other *closest* Marlies.
Odds of him starting the season with the team took a bit of a hit with the Jarnkrok signing and Kerf still here, tho.
Scouts can make mistakes. In 2018, they drafted riley stotts in the 3rd round. His teammates were drafted as overagers and have done more than him. 2021, they drafted peksa, a very odd pick, when better players were available. The leafs drafted ryan tverberg after joe miller, schingoethe, and fusco. Knowing what we know now, there’s no way you take toyberg after those guys.
Most people voting on these prospect rankings have never seen more than 5 of these prospects play, but that’s ok as it’s all subjective and for fun. If someone selects lisowsky, more power to them.
I saw some brief shifts of lisowsky. He’s ok. I haven’t seen moldenhauer yet.
Also, look at our russian scouting. Lots of mistakes there.
