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Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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STL Shark said:
Now do ES points per 60 which is the truly telling stat on offensive contribution.

Dobson: 1.4
Karlsson: 2.5 (even "bad" Karlsson of past years under Boughner and his no playing offense style was around 1.5)

NYI had the 30th ranked PP in the NHL this year. Guess who played 3:20 per game on that PP unit?

You're NYI and have a 2-3 year window to win a Cup. You're banking on Dobson to be your 3rd pairing PP specialist over Karlsson to be the best offensive D-Man in the NHL for the next 2-3 years? That would be one of the dumbest bets of all time. Now also add in that they'd be getting Barabanov at $2.5M as their 6th top 6 player as well in the proposed deal...
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I think the biggest thing that we disagree on is that they have a window at all. They definitely could go on a run especially with Sorokin in net and guys like Barzal, Lee, and Horvat if everyone is playing over their heads. Issue is that’s a HUGE if. I also don’t think their window however small it’s open closes in 3 years if they keep Dobson. Yes they have to draft and draft well to keep it open.
 
I think @STL Shark is saying that this is the trade scenario if they want to go all in.
And they really should. I love that deal from Sharks perspective and NYI is competing, that Horvat trade has competing written all over it. NYI would look a lot better with Karlsson commanding their PP, offence all around and can make Barzal, Horvat etc. play to their potential with his playmaking.
Islanders have a very good defensive core, so Karlsson can take care of the offensive side almost 100%
 
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SJSharks72 said:
I think the biggest thing that we disagree on is that they have a window at all. They definitely could go on a run especially with Sorokin in net and guys like Barzal, Lee, and Horvat if everyone is playing over their heads. Issue is that’s a HUGE if. I also don’t think their window however small it’s open closes in 3 years if they keep Dobson. Yes they have to draft and draft well to keep it open.
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They have no prospect pool to speak of so what they've got in the NHL right now is all that they have for the next 3-5 years internally. Nelson is 31 with 2 years remaining on his deal. Scored 75 points last year. Lee is 32 with 3 years left on his deal and scored 50 points last year. Palmieri is 32 with 2 years left on his deal and scored 33 points in 55 games (50 point pace). Sorokin is a UFA after this year and will need a massive raise (which impedes their ability to make any splashy UFA adds). Pageau is 30 with 3 years left.

Their window is clearly not open beyond 3 years because those guys (all good players) are all basically gone sans Sorokin. We're also talking about Dobson like he's not merely a Shayne Gostibehere level player. Nice piece, but not top pairing material. Like I said previously, there's a reason he was last amongst their RD in ES TOI in heavily sheltered zone starts. He'd be our best RD by a longshot, but we're not a team that's trying to win. Lou and NYI should be all in to win or else they're stuck in the muddy middle with 2 ECF appearances and nothing else to show for all of his moves and a solid core group over 5+ years.
 
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Le Rosbeef said:
With every respect to Erik Karlsson, Dobson has 100 points in his last 158 games, including 26 goals.
He's at $4m for the next two seasons.

He's not at Erik Karlsson's level, of course, but it's hard to believe anyone in NY would want to see an asset like him, with that level of production, moved. Added to? Of course. But he's (their) high first round draft pick and is just 23 years old.

I have to be honest, if I was NYI - all else equal - I wouldn't trade him for EK straight up.
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All I know is that I hope Grier is trying EVERYTHING, even if it doesn't seem plausible at first glance. As we know with the Jumbo deal, you never know.
 
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Connor Brown would be a great pickup if he’s willing to sign with us. Fits how Grier/Quinn want the team to play and we can promise him top six minutes to rebuild his value after he missed most of last season.
 
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Id feel a little bad for Toronto fans if this happened but would also laugh. I can't help but feel like he's too behind the game to be a good choice.
 
hohosaregood said:


Id feel a little bad for Toronto fans if this happened but would also laugh. I can't help but feel like he's too behind the game to be a good choice.
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At least Doug isn’t afraid to go after big names. I imagine he’ll get the job, the Leafs will make a couple minor moves, make the conference finals and he’ll win GM of the year. It really won’t have anything to do with what he does. Just that he’s new and they have a decent core.
 
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Lebanezer said:
At least Doug isn’t afraid to go after big names. I imagine he’ll get the job, the Leafs will make a couple minor moves, make the conference finals and he’ll win GM of the year. It really won’t have anything to do with what he does. Just that he’s new and they have a decent core.
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The leafs have big names. What they need, DW has never been good at.... Depth
 
DW always struck me as a very smart, analytical guy. I think it’s easy to get stuck when you’re in one place for too long. I think he’s smart enough to have been able to see his mistakes and evaluate where the game is going enough to be a great GM — much better than a number of other names out there.

His time here is done but I’d love to see what he can do elsewhere. And you know if he goes to Toronto, he’s going to swing some giant trades for them.
 
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Doug would've been great to bring in if they traded Marner/Matthews last summer, not now. He's far too loyal, and one of those 2 needs to go if they ever hope to win. He'd keep that core together, bring in top line AHLers as depth and they'd continue failing. Armstrong isn't available but he really is the perfect guy for them.
 
DW would be a safe choice but I don’t expect them to actually bring him on. I thought he was stepping away for health reasons? It would appear that all of that has been cleared up; his health should be paramount before the next job. Idk. Kinda feels like the mix of names that were in it for us should be the ones that get this round of play as well. I kinda feel like a high pressure job like that would take a GM with thick skin and great personality. A real smooth talker like DW would thrive in Toronto. Saying a lot of things without saying anything at all would be perfect for the Leafs.
 
Sharkz4Fun said:
Doug would've been great to bring in if they traded Marner/Matthews last summer, not now. He's far too loyal, and one of those 2 needs to go if they ever hope to win. He'd keep that core together, bring in top line AHLers as depth and they'd continue failing. Armstrong isn't available but he really is the perfect guy for them.
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Wilson was loyal to players he liked and personally brought in. If there was no connection there then Wilson showed he could be cut throat to make the deal.

Setoguchi comes to mind.
 
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Here is my ideal semi-realistic offseason plan:
  • Karlsson ($2M/yr retained) to PIT for 2023 1st (14th overall), Granlund, Petry, Pickering
  • Future considerations to LA for Cal Petersen, 2024 2nd, 2025 3rd
  • Future considerations to NYI for Josh Bailey, 2024 2nd
  • Sign Zetterlund 2.5Mx2, Gregor 1.75Mx2, Peterson 0.95Mx1
  • Buy out Labanc
William Eklund - Tomas Hertl - Mikael Granlund
Josh Bailey - Logan Couture - Alexander Barabanov
Noah Gregor - Nico Sturm - Luke Kunin
Oskar Lindblom - Steven Lorentz - Fabian Zetterlund
Jacob Peterson

Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Jeff Petry
Mario Ferraro - Matt Benning
Henry Thrun - Radim Simek
Nikolai Knyzhov - Jacob MacDonald

Taanko Tankonen
Tank Tankersen

Total cap hit is 82.5M including all the dead money. We get 3 1sts in 2023 and 4 2nds in 2024 plus a truly awful roster top to bottom that should be the betting favorite to finish 32nd. Only significant commitments beyond 2024-25 are Hertl, Couture, Vlasic and Ferraro so there’s a path to dramatic improvement in just two seasons if we hit on our high picks the next few drafts.
 
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Buffalo has the cap space to make an EK65 deal work but A) don’t think he’d waive to go play for a team still on the cusp of being playoff caliber B) the cost of acquiring EK could possibly hamper their roster C) They aren’t to the point where I believe they’re ready to start trading away valuable prospects and picks. Although I think EK, Power and Dahlin would be quite enticing, both sides would have to really work together to make this a fair deal.
 
FishRFriendz86 said:
Buffalo has the cap space to make an EK65 deal work but A) don’t think he’d waive to go play for a team still on the cusp of being playoff caliber B) the cost of acquiring EK could possibly hamper their roster C) They aren’t to the point where I believe they’re ready to start trading away valuable prospects and picks. Although I think EK, Power and Dahlin would be quite enticing, both sides would have to really work together to make this a fair deal.
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There’s no reason for Karlsson on BUF. They need much more of a defensive presence
 
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