Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Juxtaposer]

Not sure if 2025 deadline was a typo but his contract ends in 2024. I do agree about the rest though.

Typo.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I changed my mind. Karlsson for Bobrovsky + is a great deal

 

[tiburon12]

The jumps in skill and quality between one level and the other were jarring for me. I went from being Nicklas Lidstrom to Uwe Krupp...

which level did you top out? I remember a friend going from Prep School hockey to D3 NCAA and even in that small jump he said he felt he had half as much time to make decisions. Incidentally, he was a contributing member to a prep school team that has a current NHLer and career AHLer, neither of whom were the best on the team at the time.

 

[Bizz]

I changed my mind. Karlsson for Bobrovsky + is a great deal

nah. he's playing well over his head at the moment. Zero chance he keeps this up into next season and beyond.

 

[STL Shark]

I would prefer not to trade Barabanov together with Karlsson. I think he’s likely to get more as a pending UFA at the 2025 trade deadline. I’d remove Barabanov and Wahlstrom and whatever pick needed to keep it fair personally. Labanc and Gregor trades are fine. As for the Murray trade, the Leafs traded 13th overall to dump one year of Marleau at $6.25M. Though I’m sure they didn’t imagine it to be 13th overall at the time, I think dumping Murray and only moving back from 28th to 36th would be a coup for Toronto. 28th and 36th are practically the same pick.

I think you'd be down to Dobson, Bailey, 2024 1st, and 2025 3rd as the Karlsson deal then. Seems light to me when you factor retention and cap dump in return. I think you can extract more for Barabanov this offseason than at the TDL because his cap hit is so small relative to his production the past two years. NYI has to be in go for it all mode right now and need help up front and on the back end (while not having money to do both without finding someone like Barabanov on a bargain deal).

Re: the Toronto deal, I used the Mrazek deal with Chicago last year as the basis. Toronto traded Mrazek and 25th overall to Chicago for 38th overall. That was for 2 years of Mrazek's money as well so think this is pretty darn fair from that standpoint given that deal as the comparable.

 

[Gecklund]

I think you'd be down to Dobson, Bailey, 2024 1st, and 2025 3rd as the Karlsson deal then. Seems light to me when you factor retention and cap dump in return. I think you can extract more for Barabanov this offseason than at the TDL because his cap hit is so small relative to his production the past two years. NYI has to be in go for it all mode right now and need help up front and on the back end (while not having money to do both without finding someone like Barabanov on a bargain deal).

Re: the Toronto deal, I used the Mrazek deal with Chicago last year as the basis. Toronto traded Mrazek and 25th overall to Chicago for 38th overall. That was for 2 years of Mrazek's money as well so think this is pretty darn fair from that standpoint given that deal as the comparable.

I’m very much doubting NYI is willing to move Dobson who is already at least a 3D if not top pair.

 

[STL Shark]

I’m very much doubting NYI is willing to move Dobson who is already at least a 3D if not top pair.

Dobson's ES points per 60 as an offense only D-Man were 1.4 this year on 65% OZ starts. Erik Karlsson's were 2.5 on 65% OZ starts. Islanders need more scoring from the back end and are entering the now or never portion of their contention window. Barzal is 25. Horvat is 28. Nelson is 31. Lee is 32. Pageau is 30. Palmieri is 32. Sorokin is 27. Pulock and Pelech are 28.

Their sole goal should be about maximizing the next 2-3 years before those guys start to taper down and their window closes. Erik Karlsson is a massive upgrade over Dobson in every facet for that timeframe. If they don't want to make that sort of deal, then they don't really have interest in winning anything plain and simple.

 

[Gecklund]

Dobson's ES points per 60 as an offense only D-Man were 1.4 this year on 65% OZ starts. Erik Karlsson's were 2.5 on 65% OZ starts. Islanders need more scoring from the back end and are entering the now or never portion of their contention window. Barzal is 25. Horvat is 28. Nelson is 31. Lee is 32. Pageau is 30. Palmieri is 32. Sorokin is 27. Pulock and Pelech are 28.

Their sole goal should be about maximizing the next 2-3 years before those guys start to taper down and their window closes. Erik Karlsson is a massive upgrade over Dobson in every facet for that timeframe. If they don't want to make that sort of deal, then they don't really have interest in winning anything plain and simple.

I mean don’t get me wrong Karlsson is better than Dobson. They just also lost in R1 this year, didn’t make the playoffs last year and aren’t particularly close to being real contenders. To me it doesn’t make sense to move the 23 year old RD that is close to being top pairing for a RD that is a definite upgrade that is 10 years older and signed for almost 3 times the price.

 

[STL Shark]

I mean don’t get me wrong Karlsson is better than Dobson. They just also lost in R1 this year, didn’t make the playoffs last year and aren’t particularly close to being real contenders. To me it doesn’t make sense to move the 23 year old RD that is close to being top pairing for a RD that is a definite upgrade that is 10 years older and signed for almost 3 times the price.

So you'd be content as an Islanders fan to just wither away in the middle after signing Horvat to a long-term deal rather than try and capitalize on their window? This team was also in back to back ECF in 2019-20 and 2020-21. They missed Barzal for a third of this season as well or else they'd have been able to avoid Carolina in the 1st round and probably win a round.

The issue in why they're not advancing further or winning is that they don't score goals. Adding Erik Karlsson allows you to score goals while the rest of the roster is basically already set to make a run. They're too deep into it to rebuild so it's either try and upgrade for the 2-3 years ahead with an elite Karlsson or sit in the middle and not get any closer to winning. Not saying Karlsson is the only way to do that, but they have limited assets and no prospects. Trading a Dobson type is about their only path to making any meaningful addition to the back end (especially given they have minimal cap space).

 

[Gecklund]

So you'd be content as an Islanders fan to just wither away in the middle after signing Horvat to a long-term deal rather than try and capitalize on their window? This team was also in back to back ECF in 2019-20 and 2020-21. They missed Barzal for a third of this season as well or else they'd have been able to avoid Carolina in the 1st round and probably win a round.

The issue in why they're not advancing further or winning is that they don't score goals. Adding Erik Karlsson allows you to score goals while the rest of the roster is basically already set to make a run. They're too deep into it to rebuild so it's either try and upgrade for the 2-3 years ahead with an elite Karlsson or sit in the middle and not get any closer to winning. Not saying Karlsson is the only way to do that, but they have limited assets and no prospects. Trading a Dobson type is about their only path to making any meaningful addition to the back end (especially given they have minimal cap space).

Karlsson isn’t going to make any difference if they’re advancing further or not if their top 3 forwards are Barzal, Horvat, and Lee. If anything they needed to add someone like Timo from us. Their defense isn’t the issue as you said but the fact that their top 9 has Engvall, Parise, Fasching, Pageau or in other words 2 guys who should be 4th liners and 2 others who really shouldn’t be counted on to score. Pair that with Palmieri who is declining and Nelson who can only play the same position as 2 of the top 3 and is a complimentary player. Their top 9 is trash.

You’re putting words into my mouth again too. I never said anything about whether they should or shouldn’t add Karlsson. I’m saying they shouldn’t trade their 23 year old RHD that is signed for a third of the price that is damn close to being top pairing for him.

I also have no idea what you’re talking about with the rest of the roster set to make a run. The only thing that’s set right now is their defense and goaltending. You’re saying they should tinker with that which doesn’t seem like a good plan. If they need scoring, they should trade for a forward.

 

[STL Shark]

Karlsson isn’t going to make any difference if they’re advancing further or not if their top 3 forwards are Barzal, Horvat, and Lee. If anything they needed to add someone like Timo from us. Their defense isn’t the issue as you said but the fact that their top 9 has Engvall, Parise, Fasching, Pageau or in other words 2 guys who should be 4th liners and 2 others who really shouldn’t be counted on to score. Pair that with Palmieri who is declining and Nelson who can only play the same position as 2 of the top 3 and is a complimentary player. Their top 9 is trash.

You’re putting words into my mouth again too. I never said anything about whether they should or shouldn’t add Karlsson. I’m saying they shouldn’t trade their 23 year old RHD that is signed for a third of the price that is damn close to being top pairing for him.

I also have no idea what you’re talking about with the rest of the roster set to make a run. The only thing that’s set right now is their defense and goaltending. You’re saying they should tinker with that which doesn’t seem like a good plan. If they need scoring, they should trade for a forward.

1) You're missing a huge cog in their operation by ignoring Brock Nelson and his 75 points this year... Their need for 1 more top 6 forward is also why Barabanov makes a ton of sense for them. They have $5M of cap space to work with and are not going to be able to trade for anyone better/cheaper due to lack of assets and are not going to be able to sign an impact UFA winger with that amount of cap space and needing to sign their RD that played the most minutes on the team last year in Scott Mayfield.

Dobson was a distant 3rd behind Mayfield and Pulock in even strength TOI last year and he's still $4M on the cap. If you send Bailey + Dobson + Wahlstrom out in the hypothetical Karlsson + Barabanov deal (in addition to the picks), you've upgraded your defense and forward group in a big way for $1.25-1.75M against the cap ($9.75M out and $11-11.5M in after the rumored $2.5-3M retention). There is not a more impactful move that they could make in their cap situation to address multiple needs.

If NYI aren't willing to take a swing on Karlsson, not sure what teams will. They're the picture perfect example of an organization that is close and he'd be willing to go to while also having a package to make it work cap wise and not kill the current roster.

 

[Gecklund]

1) You're missing a huge cog in their operation by ignoring Brock Nelson and his 75 points this year... Their need for 1 more top 6 forward is also why Barabanov makes a ton of sense for them. They have $5M of cap space to work with and are not going to be able to trade for anyone better/cheaper due to lack of assets and are not going to be able to sign an impact UFA winger with that amount of cap space and needing to sign their RD that played the most minutes on the team last year in Scott Mayfield.

Dobson was a distant 3rd behind Mayfield and Pulock in even strength TOI last year and he's still $4M on the cap. If you send Bailey + Dobson + Wahlstrom out in the hypothetical Karlsson + Barabanov deal (in addition to the picks), you've upgraded your defense and forward group in a big way for $1.25-1.75M against the cap ($9.75M out and $11-11.5M in after the rumored $2.5-3M retention). There is not a more impactful move that they could make in their cap situation to address multiple needs.

If NYI aren't willing to take a swing on Karlsson, not sure what teams will. They're the picture perfect example of an organization that is close and he'd be willing to go to while also having a package to make it work cap wise and not kill the current roster.

The big thing for me isn’t that NYI will not be interested in EK. That’s not my argument at all. I just don’t think they will pay the price.

The big team that I see paying that price is Seattle. I’m sure there are other on the cusp teams that are interested but I really think Seattle with where they are now, their prospect pool, and cap situation, they could afford to pay the price both cap wise and pool wise.

 

[LadyStanley]

Check out this Podcast: Bobrovsky powers the Panthers - Daily Faceoff LIVE - May 23 Bobrovsky powers the Panthers - Daily Faceoff LIVE - May 23

DFL has Marek talking Sharks offseason at end.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

We should target Dubas, wherever he lands

 

[LadyStanley]

Top 10 NHL free-agent goaltenders to watch this summer

There is no superstar expected to be on the open market, but some strong players and useful depth are available.

theathletic.com

Free agent goalies. Reimer nor Dell mentioned.

 

[LadyStanley]

Seven teams that could (and should) trade for Connor Hellebuyck

Elite goalies like Hellebuyck don't grow on trees and any team without a true No. 1 goaltender should be interested if he becomes available.

theathletic.com

Trade potential landing spots for Hellebuyck. Not the Sharks.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

nah. he's playing well over his head at the moment. Zero chance he keeps this up into next season and beyond.

Who, Karlsson? I agree, that's why I think it'd be a steal now.

 

[Bizz]

Who, Karlsson? I agree, that's why I think it'd be a steal now.

Was clearly talking about Bobs. EK65 is gonna be Elite for at least another 6 years.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Was clearly talking about Bobs. EK65 is gonna be Elite for at least another 6 years.

And I'll be the president in 6 years!

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Rate this seemingly realistic offseason (1-10):

Trades:
NYI - Karlsson ($3.25M retained) + Barabanov
SJ - Dobson, Bailey, Wahlstrom, 2023 2nd (49th overall), 2024 Top 5 protected 1st, 2025 3rd

WPG - Labanc + 2023 7th
SJ - 2023 3rd

EDM - Gregor
SJ - Yamamoto

TOR - 2023 2nd (36th overall)
SJ - Murray + 2023 1st (28th overall)

No substantial UFA/RFA activity other than signing our own RFAs.

Eklund - Hertl - Wahlstrom
Peterson - Couture - Yamamoto
Kaut/Svech - Sturm - Zetterlund
Lindblom - Lorentz - Kunin

Thrun - Dobson
Ferraro - Benning
Knyzhov - Vlasic

Kahkonen - Murray

Draft picks (13) - 4th, 26th, 28th, 49th, 82nd, 94th, 100th, 123rd, 131st, 132nd, 163rd, 197th, 207th

A few incoherent mumbles of mine:

NYI surely won't be trading Dobson unless he's told them he wants out. Remove him and I think it has more legs - in fact, I'd be tempted to do it for the picks, Wahlstrom and cap dump alone.

Can't see Winnipeg taking on Labanc without greater incentive. Am I being unfair?

Noah Gregor is an RFA and one I'd prefer to re-sign to play on that 3rd line. I like his speed. Yamamoto is an RFA at the end of next season and he's not going to get qualified on that $ by anyone... Besides, my red flag - he's only passed 26 points on an offensive juggernaut like the Oilers once in 6 seasons with a career average TOI of 16:25. 244 games into your career, I really don't see much upside now for what he'd cost in $.

I'd consider the Murray deal, for that compensation, not least as I expect him to play half a season in IR or play well enough to become an asset as a rental at the trade deadline.
But I also think Cal Petersen would be a smarter target if we're taking a goalie who has cost themselves out of a roster place. I'm not sold one bad year is the real potential there, plus the compensation would probably be a little better...

Like the effort that went into it though. 6. Props.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Check out this Podcast: Bobrovsky powers the Panthers - Daily Faceoff LIVE - May 23 Bobrovsky powers the Panthers - Daily Faceoff LIVE - May 23

DFL has Marek talking Sharks offseason at end.

21 minute mark for those who are lazy

 

[STL Shark]

A few incoherent mumbles of mine:

NYI surely won't be trading Dobson unless he's told them he wants out. Remove him and I think it has more legs - in fact, I'd be tempted to do it for the picks, Wahlstrom and cap dump alone.

Can't see Winnipeg taking on Labanc without greater incentive. Am I being unfair?

Noah Gregor is an RFA and one I'd prefer to re-sign to play on that 3rd line. I like his speed. Yamamoto is an RFA at the end of next season and he's not going to get qualified on that $ by anyone... Besides, my red flag - he's only passed 26 points on an offensive juggernaut like the Oilers once in 6 seasons with a career average TOI of 16:25. 244 games into your career, I really don't see much upside now for what he'd cost in $.

I'd consider the Murray deal, for that compensation, not least as I expect him to play half a season in IR or play well enough to become an asset as a rental at the trade deadline.
But I also think Cal Petersen would be a smarter target if we're taking a goalie who has cost themselves out of a roster place. I'm not sold one bad year is the real potential there, plus the compensation would probably be a little better...

Like the effort that went into it though. 6. Props.

Deal only works if Dobson is involved. NYI doesn't have cap space and they're also never going to have utility for 2 D-Men that both need 65% OZ starts. Karlsson will turn those heavy OZ starts into a ton of points while Dobson had only 30 ES points on the season (on top of being the QB of the league's 3rd worst PP). Karlsson had 50% more ES points than Dobson had total points. NYI is far better using that money to re-sign Mayfield (who they played way more at ES) than hold onto Dobson (who they played as a 3rd pairing PP specialist while not being special on the PP).

They also have nothing else that is remotely interesting to trade for in terms of value (might be the worst prospect pool in the league).

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Deal only works if Dobson is involved. NYI doesn't have cap space and they're also never going to have utility for 2 D-Men that both need 65% OZ starts. Karlsson will turn those heavy OZ starts into a ton of points while Dobson had only 30 ES points on the season (on top of being the QB of the league's 3rd worst PP). Karlsson had 50% more ES points than Dobson had total points. NYI is far better using that money to re-sign Mayfield (who they played way more at ES) than hold onto Dobson (who they played as a 3rd pairing PP specialist while not being special on the PP).

They also have nothing else that is remotely interesting to trade for in terms of value (might be the worst prospect pool in the league).

With every respect to Erik Karlsson, Dobson has 100 points in his last 158 games, including 26 goals.
He's at $4m for the next two seasons.

He's not at Erik Karlsson's level, of course, but it's hard to believe anyone in NY would want to see an asset like him, with that level of production, moved. Added to? Of course. But he's (their) high first round draft pick and is just 23 years old.

I have to be honest, if I was NYI - all else equal - I wouldn't trade him for EK straight up.

 

[tiburon12]

With every respect to Erik Karlsson, Dobson has 100 points in his last 158 games, including 26 goals.
He's at $4m for the next two seasons.

He's not at Erik Karlsson's level, of course, but it's hard to believe anyone in NY would want to see an asset like him, with that level of production, moved. Added to? Of course. But he's (their) high first round draft pick and is just 23 years old.

I have to be honest, if I was NYI - all else equal - I wouldn't trade him for EK straight up.

Yea logically it makes sense to not trade Dobson for Karlsson......but when you think about everything that just happened with the Panthers and bringing in a guy who fits the age of the core, it's an interesting core.

By next season, the following Islanders will be over 30:

F- Baily, Czizikas, Clutterbuck, Johnston, Lee, Martin, Nelson, Pageau, Palmieri
D - Mayfield, Pelech, Pulock

Notably, Sorokin and Horvat will be 29.

Karlsson fits their window much more than Dobson does. If they want to push the chips in and go for it, it makes sense. But it they want to be risk adverse and hope they can get in and maybe win a few rounds, they shouldn't make the trade

 

[STL Shark]

With every respect to Erik Karlsson, Dobson has 100 points in his last 158 games, including 26 goals.
He's at $4m for the next two seasons.

He's not at Erik Karlsson's level, of course, but it's hard to believe anyone in NY would want to see an asset like him, with that level of production, moved. Added to? Of course. But he's (their) high first round draft pick and is just 23 years old.

I have to be honest, if I was NYI - all else equal - I wouldn't trade him for EK straight up.

Now do ES points per 60 which is the truly telling stat on offensive contribution.

Dobson: 1.4
Karlsson: 2.5 (even "bad" Karlsson of past years under Boughner and his no playing offense style was around 1.5)

NYI had the 30th ranked PP in the NHL this year. Guess who played 3:20 per game on that PP unit?

You're NYI and have a 2-3 year window to win a Cup. You're banking on Dobson to be your 3rd pairing PP specialist over Karlsson to be the best offensive D-Man in the NHL for the next 2-3 years? That would be one of the dumbest bets of all time. Now also add in that they'd be getting Barabanov at $2.5M as their 6th top 6 player as well in the proposed deal...