Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[The Abusement Park]

So you aren't assuming the cap will be going up in coming years?

It’s going up 1mil for the next two years. Not much.

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

I think you're right about the window being a certain length but when you really dig into the facts, there's always a reason most contenders can't stay at the top or maintain that window for longer than the 5-7 years you're referring to. Every situation is different and throwing a blanket statement to include everyone together is just wrong.

Most teams, don't have a team as young as the Avs are currently to keep a contending window open longer than 7 years. They usually have a decent mix of youth infused with vets who are ready to win. A lot of times, those top guys contracts' come up and they can't afford to keep them or they become less effective as they get older.

Most of the time though, it's just bad roster management that does teams in as managers just tend to make mistakes. (Case-in-point : Doug Wilson - San Jose Sharks -> imagine if he had traded some of those guys to rejuvenate the team instead of doubling down thinking they'd be great FOREVER and signing them to max-term contracts?)

When you think about that 1st edition of the Avs in 1995-96, they ended up being a contender all the way up to 2003 and could have kept going another 2-3 years if it wasn't for the lockout and salary cap rollback to $39M.

Not everyone remembers 'the lumps' that team had to go through to eventually get over the hump. They came to Colorado ready to win but before that :

* In 92-93, the young Nordiques were favored over the Habs and lost in 6 games to the eventual Stanley Cup Champs.​

* In 93-94, they actually missed the playoffs which led to the hiring of Pierre Lacroix & Marc Crawford. They changed the complexion of their roster by trading Mats Sundin to Toronto.​

* In 94-95 they were the 2nd best team in the league but were still outed in the 1st round by andy vanhellemond and the New York Rangers. (Andy Van Hellemond, considered one of the NHL's best referees,)​

To me, those years were the building block years that are not unlike what the Avs have been through the past 3 years to get to this point. You can choose to view them as "contending years" if you want to, that's your perogative but most teams that end up truly contending have 'lead-up' years prior to becoming a true contender.

Back to your point that this is YEAR 4 of the contending window :

2018-19 -> this is Makar's intro into the NHL in the playoffs - sorry but you don't win the Cup without a true #1 D-Man which I don't think he was YET at that point with only 10 GP -> building year​

2019-20 -> I think the Avs had a great chance to get to the finals but were on their 3rd string goalie - bad luck - but I don't think they would have beaten Tampa Bay in the finals anyways.​

2020-21 -> I think at this point, the Avs are a true Stanley Cup contenders and should have gotten to the finals if it wasn't for some bad coaching and poor trade deadline acquisitions.​

It can be argued that 2019-20 was a contending year based on the final standings but that team needed to be re-inforced at the TDL and the Avs only added Namestnikov for a 4th round pick. Not exactly a massive endorsement from management that the team is all out to win it quite yet.

Even last season, management went out on the cheap at the TDL and acquired 2 former Avs that were washed up in Nemeth and Soderberg. They could have done so much more but it's important to keep in mind that if they had gone all in the past 2 years, then we wouldn't have drafted Barron and we wouldn't have drafted Olausson.

Contending windows can continue for a long time with shrewd management that know when to cut-bait and make the right moves. If Pierre Lacroix doesn't trade Mike Ricci to the Sharks for a 1st round pick that turns out to be Alex Tanguay and decides instead to sign him to a huge, long-term contract then who knows how that turns out in the end.

Great write up. I agree the Avs were too weak physically & thin depth wise to be serious contenders until this season. That said, they highly plausibly at least reach the WCF in 2019 if not for MacK injury game 7, & everyone dropping like flies v Dallas in 2020.

 

[Ararana]

Byram wasn't on the PP this year because he got hurt and was a rookie. Obviously Bednar is going to trust his guys in Toews/Girard first.

We've seen what Byram can do offensively and Bednar isn't a dummy, he knows what Bo is capable of. I think as early as next season we see Byram QBing PP2.

I think so too. Byram has been the first Dman up into the PP when there's an injury, it's bound to happen in a healthy roster sooner or later. Girard-Toews had a few weeks where that drop pass slapper was going in, but outside of that I'm not a big fan of either on the PP.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Ok, explain how the Avs can keep all of:


Landy
Mack
Mikko
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook


Makar
Toews
Byram
Girard


Kuemper
Francouz


And still ice a competitive roster. They will have literally no quality depth at all.



Or, they lose 2-3 of those guys but get some extra wiggle room to fill out the roster with actual decent players.

Debates on window are difficult because there's a lot of nuances and people go to extremes when they argue (not saying you specifically).

The fact that windows are not eternal is undisputable.

Rosters for contending teams will almost always be weaker at the start of season X+1 than the roster (incuding the rentals acquired at the trade dealine) at the end of year X.

That doesn't mean that the window is closing. The debates were mostly about going all in last year without regard to the future because there might not be another chance vs being more conservative with the "all in" and spread the wealth/trade chips over a period of a few years to be a cup contender for 3-5 years.

There isn't a chasm of difference between the two philosophies however. More like nuances.

 

[Foppa2118]

This Byram fanboy agrees with this 100%. Byram's potential was capped the moment he was drafted by the Avs. We all saw how f***ing good Byram was as the top Dman early in the season when both Makar and Toews were out. THAT is Byram's actual potential but he'll never realize it in Colorado playing second or third fiddle.

In two years Toews will probably walk, even if he doesn't I think Byram will get the top LHD spot at that point but he'll never get PP1 minutes or the most important offensive ice time when he's on a team with Cale Makar. Good for us Colorado fans, not great for Bo Byram.

I hate to say it because Bo is my favorite player but it would have been better for him if Bowman didn't stick his head all the way up his ass and pass on Byram. Byram could have been a Makar-lite for Chicago (exactly what they needed) and I would have hated every minute of it.

The inter-division Makar vs Byram battles would have been amazing to watch, very McDavid(Makar) vs MacKinnon(Byram) feeling IMO. All that said I'm thrilled he's in Colorado, even if it does limit him.

As a fellow Byram fanboy I have to disagree with ya here Ararana. I think Bo has at least another couple levels he can get to. And 20 year olds usually don't max out their potential in their rookie year. It's usually an upward progression and they get a bigger role as they gain more experience.

As mentioned, and you agreed with, he really hasn't had much PP time at all. On either unit. Really only a handful of games. But when he was on it, especially the top unit, he looked outstanding. Ran the PP very well, and I got a strong impression that while Cale was out, he noticed Bo having success moving the puck much quicker than he had been, and when he came back he started moving the puck quicker, and had more success because of it.

If G happens to get traded, I think we'll see Bo be the main guy on PP2, which will up his point totals a lot. He might earn his way into that role anyway, because he's better than G or Teows on the PP IMO.

Also he's just barely gotten his feet wet in the NHL. His early season games this year and the last one against LA were really the only time he's played with full confidence in the NHL. He was playing more of a safe game last year with the Avs. Not nearly as aggressive and on his toes as he has been this year.

The more comfortable he gets, and hopefully staying healthy and letting him play a lengthy stretch of games in the NHL, will only grow his confidence more. I've always thought 40 points and great defense is closer to his floor than his ceiling. I think he has 60 point potential or more. Esoeially in a career season. The way Bednar's Avs play is tailor made for his playing style.

 

[Ararana]

@Foppa2118 definitely not trying to say Bo is already capped. He’s going to get a lot better if he stays healthy. IMO he eventually becomes the clear #2 behind Makar eventually.

But I do think he will hit a ceiling due to lack of opportunity.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

The only guy ‘blocking’ Byram from opportunity is Devon Toews.

He’s the LHD on the top pair (deservedly so) and Byram needs to beat him out if he wants those minutes.

 

[Foppa2118]

@Foppa2118 definitely not trying to say Bo is already capped. He’s going to get a lot better if he stays healthy. IMO he eventually becomes the clear #2 behind Makar eventually.

But I do think he will hit a ceiling due to lack of opportunity.

I see what you're saying, maybe I misunderstood. Personally, I think his opportunity will increase in the next year or two. Especially if they move G. But if they kept both Toews and G long term and kept Bo in more of a defensive role, I can see what you're saying.

But I think they realize how good he is offensively now. I think he'll become a top pairing D man and a regular on PP2 that could also get shifts with Makar on PP1 from time to time. We've seen Bednar experiment with two D on PP1 this year.

He's averaging about 19 minutes right now. Had about 17:30 last year. I expect him to end up averaging around the 25 minutes Toews gets now. As soon as this playoffs or next year IMO. He's just got to stay healthy.

 

[dahrougem2]

The only guy ‘blocking’ Byram from opportunity is Devon Toews.

He’s the LHD on the top pair (deservedly so) and Byram needs to beat him out if he wants those minutes.

I don't think he has to beat him out at all. In the event Girard does get traded this summer I see no reason the Avs can't run a three headed monster on defence with Makar/Toews/Byram all playing roughly 23 minutes per night.

We know the Avs rotate their defensive pairings like crazy. Byram is going to get major minutes if he shows he can stay healthy. That is the only question at this point.

 

[Richard88]

If you want to get Byram onto PP1 the obvious move is to put MacKinnon in the bumper spot:

----------------- Landeskog --------------------
Byram ----- MacKinnon ----- Rantanen
-------------------- Makar -------------------------

Or:

----------------- Landeskog --------------------
Makar ----- MacKinnon ----- Rantanen
-------------------- Byram -------------------------

 

[Mgd31]

Are you guys going to re-sign Burakovsky? I was really impressed with him last night and I think he could be a good upgrade for the Devils over Zacha at LW. Thanks.

 

[Richard88]

Are you guys going to re-sign Burakovsky? I was really impressed with him last night and I think he could be a good upgrade for the Devils over Zacha at LW. Thanks.

The expectation from most Avs fans is that he'll price himself out, along with Kadri.

Nichuskin and Kuemper are by far the bigger priorities, and after those two are (hopefully) re-signed there will likely only be ~$5m for a top 6 forward, which is probably ~$1m short of what Burakovsky can get on the open market.

Then there's also the fact that the Avs will likely need that ~$5m again in 2023 to help cover some raises for MacKinnon, Newhook, Byram, and Meyers, which means that the Avs probably won't be too keen on handing out a lot of term (either to Burakovsky or someone else) to fill that 2RW spot.

Lastly Colorado have a carbon-copy of Burakovsky in their system in Olausson who should (hopefully) be able to replace Burakovsky in a year or two. Olausson has had a middling year in the OHL by not going PPG though, so it remains to be seen if he'll pan out.

Of course a lot would change if one or both of Kuemper and/or Nichuskin end up leaving in UFA.

 

[Mgd31]

The expectation from most Avs fans is that he'll price himself out, along with Kadri.

Nichuskin and Kuemper are by far the bigger priorities, and after those two are (hopefully) re-signed there will likely only be ~$5m for a top 6 forward, which is probably ~$1m short of what Burakovsky can get on the open market.

Then there's also the fact that the Avs will likely need that ~$5m again in 2023 to help cover some raises for MacKinnon, Newhook, Byram, and Meyers, which means that the Avs probably won't be too keen on handing out a lot of term (either to Burakovsky or someone else) to fill that 2RW spot.

Lastly Colorado have a carbon-copy of Burakovsky in their system in Olausson who should (hopefully) be able to replace Burakovsky in a year or two. Olausson has had a middling year in the OHL by not going PPG though, so it remains to be seen if he'll pan out.

Of course a lot would change if one or both of Kuemper and/or Nichuskin end up leaving in UFA.

Thanks! Yea I really liked him his game yesterday. Big, fast and skilled player.

 

[G2P]

Dreaming here:

We trade Johnson, let Burky walk and keep Kadri and Nuke.

But it was all a dream.

 

[AvsCOL]

Are you guys going to re-sign Burakovsky? I was really impressed with him last night and I think he could be a good upgrade for the Devils over Zacha at LW. Thanks.

He's great every 5th game or so. The other 4/5 he's completely useless.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

What are we thinking about Lekhonen’s next contract?

I think $3.5M is the low end of what it will cost, but wouldn’t be surprised if it costs $4M to get it done.

I’d be happy with a $3.8M X 5 contract. Even though I’m not a huge fine of longer term deals with role players, I think it makes sense to lock him up for several years with the lack of picks/prospects in the system.

 

[sethro109]

Dreaming here:

We trade Johnson, let Burky walk and keep Kadri and Nuke.

But it was all a dream.

EJ's money is going to MacK. He's just keeping it warm for him.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Are you guys going to re-sign Burakovsky? I was really impressed with him last night and I think he could be a good upgrade for the Devils over Zacha at LW. Thanks.

I would consider a trade involving Burakovsky's rights and Zacha. NJD gets that skilled/fast wing to complement their Cs. The Avs get another reclamation project with 2C upside.

 

[Mgd31]

I would consider a trade involving Burakovsky's rights and Zacha. NJD gets that skilled/fast wing to complement their Cs. The Avs get another reclamation project with 2C upside.

I wouldn't mind that. Zacha played well with the Hischier/Bratt duo and Hischier/Tatar duo this year so I am sure he would work well with your plethora of skilled forwards.

But for us, I think its just time for a change at this point.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I wouldn't mind that. Zacha played well with the Hischier/Bratt duo and Hischier/Tatar duo this year so I am sure he would work well with your plethora of skilled forwards.

But for us, I think its just time for a change at this point.

I was thinking that he might thrive on a line with Nichushkin (hopefully), Lehkonen, or both. Playing next to either or both of them can probably create a lot of opportunity open up the ice for him.

 

[Mgd31]

I was thinking that he might thrive on a line with Nichushkin (hopefully), Lehkonen, or both. Playing next to either or both of them can probably create a lot of opportunity open up the ice for him.

Oh yea he could definitely work well with those 2 guys. Zacha has all the tools to be a great player. Size, good shot, and decent speed and hands. I just don't think he will put it all together here and a change of scenery is needed.

 

[JH21]

82.5 million salary cap

Johnson is most likely being bought out. 4 million cap savings

Compher should be dealt. 3.5 mil cap savings.

That leaves us with $33.1 mil in cap savings.

Priority resignings:

Darcy Kuemper - 5 x 6.5m
Val Nichushkin - 6 x 5.75m

Others:

Josh Manson - 3 x 4.5m
Arturri Lehkonen - 3 x 3.9m
Nico Sturm - 2 x 1.75m
Nicolas Aube Kubel - 1 x 2.0m
Jack Johnson - 1 x 1.5m
Mikhail Maltsev - 1 x 950k

That leaves us with 6.3 mil in cap space with the following roster:

Landeskog- Mackinnon- Rantanen
Lehkonen- Newhook- Nichushkin
Meyers - Sturm - Aube Kubel
MacDermid - Maltsev - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - JJ

Kuemper
Francouz

Then in 2023/24 we have $20 million to pay Mackinnon, Byram, Newhook, Meyers and a few 4th line forwards.

That is absolutely a cup contending team. We could always flip Girard for a 2C improving our forward depth as well.

 

[Avaholic29]

I pretty much agree with everything you said here. IMO Byram will be a fantastic player if he can stay healthy, and the Avs are spoiled that they got to draft both Bo and Cale. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Byram being a supporting player to the best defenseman in the league.

But I do think his offensive potential is capped, to some degree, because he's playing behind not only Makar, but Toews-Girard as well - specifically on the power play. Byram's production this year has been almost entirely 5v5. Makar, Josi, Fox... all these guys get the benefit of stat padding from prime power play minutes.

47% of Fox's points have come on 211 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.
39% of Makar's points have come on 271 PP1 minutes. 15% of his overall TOI.
39% of Josi's points have come on 233 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.

7% of Byram's points have come on 22 power play minutes. 5% of his overall TOI.

The Avs will need to start feeding this kid power play time if they want him to get anywhere near the production he's capable of putting up. Fortunately for Byram he's a very good 5v5 producer, so even without the special teams time he's still contributing. But for those of you who didn't watch much of Byram in the WHL, holy shit that kid is good on the power play when he gets extra space.

* Today I leaned Byram as the same number of goals as Seider in 53 less games. lol what the ass. Seider has 216 power play minutes this season, I don't watch Detroit so I have no idea what's going on there.

He’s playing behind them because he’s 20 and has 42 nhl games of experience. To say he’s capped out offensively at 20 and 42 games played is just mind blowing to me. Miro heiskanen still isn’t on Dallas pp1 and effects the game the most on that dcore.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

82.5 million salary cap

Johnson is most likely being bought out. 4 million cap savings

Compher should be dealt. 3.5 mil cap savings.

That leaves us with $33.1 mil in cap savings.

Priority resignings:

Darcy Kuemper - 5 x 6.5m
Val Nichushkin - 6 x 5.75m

Others:

Josh Manson - 3 x 4.5m
Arturri Lehkonen - 3 x 3.9m
Nico Sturm - 2 x 1.75m
Nicolas Aube Kubel - 1 x 2.0m
Jack Johnson - 1 x 1.5m
Mikhail Maltsev - 1 x 950k

That leaves us with 6.3 mil in cap space with the following roster:

Landeskog- Mackinnon- Rantanen
Lehkonen- Newhook- Nichushkin
Meyers - Sturm - Aube Kubel
MacDermid - Maltsev - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - JJ

Kuemper
Francouz

Then in 2023/24 we have $20 million to pay Mackinnon, Byram, Newhook, Meyers and a few 4th line forwards.

That is absolutely a cup contending team. We could always flip Girard for a 2C improving our forward depth as well.

I knew you were bad at math but I didn't realize you were this bad at it


EDIT: I didn't even see the Sturm contract. So you think after turning down a 4x2.75M extension with the Wild, Sturm is going to turn around and sign for almost half as much, for half the length with us.


That roster is so bad.

 

[Balthazar]

Johnson is most likely being bought out. 4 million cap savings

"most likely"