Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think that’s an overly pessimistic view to say we’ll be on the outside looking in 3 years from now. Three years from now based on your arguments and our current contracts we’ll have a core of:

MacKinnon
Landeskog
Rantanen
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook
Makar
Byram
Keumper

Our entire top 3 defenseman will be in their prime, only Keumper, Landy and Nuke will be 30 or older and we still have some okay prospect who have shots in Behrens and Olausson.

Our true contender window might close, especially without better drafting, but to me that is still a playoff team.

I think that’s an overly pessimistic view to say we’ll be on the outside looking in 3 years from now. Three years from now based on your arguments and our current contracts we’ll have a core of:

MacKinnon
Landeskog
Rantanen
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook
Makar
Byram
Keumper

Our entire top 3 defenseman will be in their prime, only Keumper, Landy and Nuke will be 30 or older and we still have some okay prospect who have shots in Behrens and Olausson.

Our true contender window might close, especially without better drafting, but to me that is still a playoff team.

That's probably a worst case scenario, I agree. But its possible.

Chicago managed to quickly go from winning 3 Stanley Cups in 5 years, to being a first round exit back to back years and then outside looking in pretty much every year since. Conveniently, the first year those 10.5M contract extensions kicked in for Toews and Kane was the same year the team depth they had in the 5 years prior suddenly shriveled away and instead they were hoping the core of superstars they had kept in tact would pan out for them. And I'm sure that 2015/16 Chicago team still believed they were a top tier cup contender as well... A team that featured:


Patrick Kane(Who won the Hart trophy that year)
Artemi Panarin
Jonathan Toews
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook
Marian Hossa
Corey Crawford


Likewise with the LA Kings. In a 5 year span they made playoffs all 5 years, won 2 cups, and had a conference finals in between the cup wins. The very next year after they won the 2nd cup, they missed the playoffs. And haven't made it out of the first round in the 6 years since then.

The Kings the year they won the 2nd cup had a core of Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Doughty, Quick, Voynov, Muzzin, Martinez, stud rookie Tyler Toffoli I'm sure they still believed the cup window was wide open that next year still having Kopitar/Carter/Doughty/Toffoli/Quick/Muzzin/ etc. all on the team again. Instead, they missed playoffs altogether.


Basically any team you go and look at that was a dominant powerhouse at some point in the salary cap era... They only had a true cup contending window of about 5-6 years, before they regressed or had to retool or rebuild completely.


San Jose, Boston, Nashville, Washington, etc. etc.


The Avs will make the playoffs for a 5th straight year this year, 3 years from now would be 8 straight years. No team in the NHL has an active streak longer then that at the moment.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Makar is definitely at his peak. There's nowhere higher to go. He's already the best Dman in hockey. Now he probably has another 5-6 solid years of playing at that peak, but there's not much room left to go up when you're already the best.

With Byram and Newhook.... Personally I dont think there's a lot of room left for Byram either. He's already a really solid #2/3 sort of Dman. I dont think he has much higher upside then that. If he can stay healthy for a full year and get over the injury stuff there's growth to be had just from getting him for an entire 82 games though.

With Newhook, I hope and do believe there's room to grow. Right now he's essentially a ~35 point forward. I hope he can develop into a 55-65 point 2nd line guy, but that also means we're going to have to pay him accordingly as well. Which likely means a ~5M bridge deal after his elc expires next year. Assuming he takes those steps forward and becomes a 2nd line quality player next year. IF he doesn't well that just another completely different problem at that point anyways. With Kadri and Bura both likely cap casualties this summer, Newhook needs to step up next year and if he doesn't our depth is already taking a significant hit.


But here's another thing perhaps you're not considering.... Landeskog turns 30 later on this year. Mackinnon turns 27, and will be 28 when his next contract kicks in. How many more years of elite superstar play do these guys have left? For Landy, his first drop in play could honestly happen any day now. Hopefully we get another 2-3 solid years from him, but we might not.

Disagree on Byram, I think he's a top pairing all star dman at his peak. At least in terms of talent, just not easy to get that opportunity.

I agree that landeskog will eventually decline. That's the key risk in my mind for our window length. Not whether or not we can afford a few secondary talent.

I think Byram's growth offsets Landeskog's decline and that maintains our current position until landeskog reached an age where decline accelerates or we lose Toews to UFA. Mack's decline is far off enough that it's not worth worrying about.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't think Maltsev will be playing in the organization next season lol.

What makes you say that? Am I forgetting something or do you just think he's going back to Russia?

He looked pretty good in his later season callups this year. Was good on the forecheck, good on face-offs, and put up good numbers with the Eagles.

He just got caught in a numbers game with one way contracts ahead of him this year, but I think he'll have a much better opportunity next year. Might even see him in the playoffs this year too.

 

[dahrougem2]

What makes you say that? Am I forgetting something or do you just think he's going back to Russia?

He looked pretty good in his later season callups this year. Was good on the forecheck, good on face-offs, and put up good numbers with the Eagles.

He just got caught in a numbers game with one way contracts ahead of him this year, but I think he'll have a much better opportunity next year. Might even see him in the playoffs this year too.

He just doesn't seem like a Jared Bednar player, and we know when Bednar isn't a fan of a particular player that player isn't getting a sniff.

Just look at his ice time totals this season. They're extremely low when he was playing up here and I agree with you that I thought he looked good. Despite that Bednar clearly didn't trust the guy.

I just have a hunch Maltsev will be asking his agent to do whatever he can to get him out of Colorado so he can get a fresh start with a different organization willing to give him a chance.

 

[Foppa2118]

He just doesn't seem like a Jared Bednar player, and we know when Bednar isn't a fan of a particular player that player isn't getting a sniff.

Just look at his ice time totals this season. They're extremely low when he was playing up here and I agree with you that I thought he looked good. Despite that Bednar clearly didn't trust the guy.

I just have a hunch Maltsev will be asking his agent to do whatever he can to get him out of Colorado so he can get a fresh start with a different organization willing to give him a chance.

I think early on he wasn't playing the style Bednar wants, but in his last callups I think he was. He was quite good on the forecheck and he was making good second and third efforts in his battles. That's what Jared wants to see.

We'll see though. You might be right, but Joe has shown not to be a guy who just caves to trade demands. He took his time with both Duchene and Jost. If Maltsev wants another opportunity he might have to go back to Russia.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Disagree on Byram, I think he's a top pairing all star dman at his peak. At least in terms of talent, just not easy to get that opportunity.

I agree that landeskog will eventually decline. That's the key risk in my mind for our window length. Not whether or not we can afford a few secondary talent.

I think Byram's growth offsets Landeskog's decline and that maintains our current position until landeskog reached an age where decline accelerates or we lose Toews to UFA. Mack's decline is far off enough that it's not worth worrying about.

On Byram, that's fair. I just dont agree. I think he's overrated in terms of his upside at least here with the Avs. He's never going to get Makar's spot on the Top PP unit and IMO he's never going to get the #1 LD minutes over Toews either. At least not anytime soon. Maybe if he ends up being traded he grows into a bigger role but I really think his peak upside is a #2 Dman and I think here with the Avs he's going to be a #3. A great dman, and he's already basically that level of player for us and obviously makes us quite a bit better when he's playing.


I also wouldn't say Macks decline is far off to the point where its not worth worrying about. Again this entire discussion is about 2 years from now when Macks new deal has kicked in, and he's going to be 28 that first season. This day and age most guys peak around 22-27 years old. Mack is already at the end of that peak age now.

Throw in that he's a guy who relies heavily on his physical skillset and talent to be as good as he is, and not so much on his brain(He's always been labeled here as having lower hockey IQ, especially for a superstar of the game), and those physical skills are what get hit the most as player ages.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mack's decline start around 29/30. Again, that's probably in the realm of worst case scenario, but it is a scenario with a real possibility of playing out.



I know I've seen a few posters mention it here before me.... But there's a pretty good chance that next Mackinnon contract is going to f***ing suck a lot for us. Its most likely going to be an 8 years deal in the neighborhood of 12-13M a year. It wont start until Nate is 28 and it wont expire until he's 35 years old. There's a very good chance the last 2-3 years of that deal are absolutely putrid for us.


There's no choice about it, we have to bite the bullet and sign him first chance we get this summer to whatever contract he wants. But its probably going to be an ugly deal the 2nd half of it(Kind of like how Tavares contract is looking worse and worse).

 

[Ararana]

On Byram, that's fair. I just dont agree. I think he's overrated in terms of his upside at least here with the Avs. He's never going to get Makar's spot on the Top PP unit and IMO he's never going to get the #1 LD minutes over Toews either. At least not anytime soon. Maybe if he ends up being traded he grows into a bigger role but I really think his peak upside is a #2 Dman and I think here with the Avs he's going to be a #3. A great dman, and he's already basically that level of player for us and obviously makes us quite a bit better when he's playing.

This Byram fanboy agrees with this 100%. Byram's potential was capped the moment he was drafted by the Avs. We all saw how f***ing good Byram was as the top Dman early in the season when both Makar and Toews were out. THAT is Byram's actual potential but he'll never realize it in Colorado playing second or third fiddle.

In two years Toews will probably walk, even if he doesn't I think Byram will get the top LHD spot at that point but he'll never get PP1 minutes or the most important offensive ice time when he's on a team with Cale Makar. Good for us Colorado fans, not great for Bo Byram.

I hate to say it because Bo is my favorite player but it would have been better for him if Bowman didn't stick his head all the way up his ass and pass on Byram. Byram could have been a Makar-lite for Chicago (exactly what they needed) and I would have hated every minute of it.

The inter-division Makar vs Byram battles would have been amazing to watch, very McDavid(Makar) vs MacKinnon(Byram) feeling IMO. All that said I'm thrilled he's in Colorado, even if it does limit him.

 

[Balthazar]

The path for Byram is possibly to replace Girard as soon as next year and then eventually replace Toews.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

On Byram, that's fair. I just dont agree. I think he's overrated in terms of his upside at least here with the Avs. He's never going to get Makar's spot on the Top PP unit and IMO he's never going to get the #1 LD minutes over Toews either. At least not anytime soon. Maybe if he ends up being traded he grows into a bigger role but I really think his peak upside is a #2 Dman and I think here with the Avs he's going to be a #3. A great dman, and he's already basically that level of player for us and obviously makes us quite a bit better when he's playing.


I also wouldn't say Macks decline is far off to the point where its not worth worrying about. Again this entire discussion is about 2 years from now when Macks new deal has kicked in, and he's going to be 28 that first season. This day and age most guys peak around 22-27 years old. Mack is already at the end of that peak age now.

Throw in that he's a guy who relies heavily on his physical skillset and talent to be as good as he is, and not so much on his brain(He's always been labeled here as having lower hockey IQ, especially for a superstar of the game), and those physical skills are what get hit the most as player ages.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mack's decline start around 29/30. Again, that's probably in the realm of worst case scenario, but it is a scenario with a real possibility of playing out.



I know I've seen a few posters mention it here before me.... But there's a pretty good chance that next Mackinnon contract is going to f***ing suck a lot for us. Its most likely going to be an 8 years deal in the neighborhood of 12-13M a year. It wont start until Nate is 28 and it wont expire until he's 35 years old. There's a very good chance the last 2-3 years of that deal are absolutely putrid for us.


There's no choice about it, we have to bite the bullet and sign him first chance we get this summer to whatever contract he wants. But its probably going to be an ugly deal the 2nd half of it(Kind of like how Tavares contract is looking worse and worse).

I think Byram not getting the opportunity to be a top pairing D doesn't mean his talent isn't.

Your point about Mack is totally fair. Mack's bull in the China shop style doesn't age well, he's no Patrick Kane or Lidstrom. That being said, he's also just ridiculously motivated like a Kobe, I think he'll maintain his body to the point that he'll squeeze out a couple of more good years than most expect. For me it's hard to say until you see a sigh of him slowing down which I haven't seen.

 

[Richard88]

Tampa Bay certainly does. Mostly because they simply draft better then us and get regular contributions from prospects that we don't.

Boston are pretty good too, mainly as a result of having their top three forwards on steal contracts.

 

[Perratrooper]

That's probably a worst case scenario, I agree. But its possible.

Chicago managed to quickly go from winning 3 Stanley Cups in 5 years, to being a first round exit back to back years and then outside looking in pretty much every year since. Conveniently, the first year those 10.5M contract extensions kicked in for Toews and Kane was the same year the team depth they had in the 5 years prior suddenly shriveled away and instead they were hoping the core of superstars they had kept in tact would pan out for them. And I'm sure that 2015/16 Chicago team still believed they were a top tier cup contender as well... A team that featured:


Patrick Kane(Who won the Hart trophy that year)
Artemi Panarin
Jonathan Toews
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook
Marian Hossa
Corey Crawford


Likewise with the LA Kings. In a 5 year span they made playoffs all 5 years, won 2 cups, and had a conference finals in between the cup wins. The very next year after they won the 2nd cup, they missed the playoffs. And haven't made it out of the first round in the 6 years since then.

The Kings the year they won the 2nd cup had a core of Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Doughty, Quick, Voynov, Muzzin, Martinez, stud rookie Tyler Toffoli I'm sure they still believed the cup window was wide open that next year still having Kopitar/Carter/Doughty/Toffoli/Quick/Muzzin/ etc. all on the team again. Instead, they missed playoffs altogether.


Basically any team you go and look at that was a dominant powerhouse at some point in the salary cap era... They only had a true cup contending window of about 5-6 years, before they regressed or had to retool or rebuild completely.


San Jose, Boston, Nashville, Washington, etc. etc.


The Avs will make the playoffs for a 5th straight year this year, 3 years from now would be 8 straight years. No team in the NHL has an active streak longer then that at the moment.

When you look at Chicago though, their core was much older than Kane and Toews. If Byram and Makar stay healthy we will be competitive as long as they are on the team. I also really don’t buy into Byram and Makar having hit their peaks. Makar may have hit his offensive peak, but he could easily continue to get better defensively. While it might not be a substantial difference, every so often a player comes along that there is so very clearly a gap between him and the next best that there’s no argument about who is #1. I don’t think Cale is there yet and he may never get there, but he still has the potential to be that.

Byram as crazy as this might sound, looks just as good if not better than Makar at the same age. Now he doesn’t have the same dynamic skating ability, but he’s no slouch either. If he can stay healthy (huge IF) we might have two of the top 10 defenders on this planet. If Sakic can convince Byram to sign long term at a reasonable number (Girard’s contract) I think both sides would take it given the risk.

Now I could definitely see us having a year where we miss playoffs, get a high pick and re-bound in the next 3-5 years, but I think as long as he have Byram and Makar we will be a force.


In addition to this, forwards tend to translate into the NHL much quicker than defense. If the Avs can put an emphasis on drafting forwards we can open a second window while having this elite defense.

 

[Avaholic29]

When Kadri went down with injury, he was leading our team with 83 points. Obviously he isn't now since he's missed time though he's still 2nd and only 3 points behind Mikko.


Sturm and Newhook played together tonight, guess who was the Center. I'll give you a hint, it wasn't Newhook. In fact, since Nico Sturm came to the Avs, only Nathan Mackinnon has taken more faceoffs then Sturm.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

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Nico Sturm is and will be the 3rd line Center when Kadri comes back. Newhook is and will be a winger for the duration of this season and the playoff run.



Dont worry, nobody takes anything you post seriously anyway so it's all good.

Newhook and sturm played together cause of injuries. Kadri leading in points at one stage isn’t “leading GOAL scorer”.

Bura - Mack - rantanen
Landy - Kadri - Nuke
Lehkonen - Newhook - Compher
Cogliano -Sturm - O’Connor

Sakic clearly stated lehkonen and Newhook would play together. Sturm isn’t the 3C on this team. The entire board is opposing your opinion so maybe look in the mirror about who’s posts don’t get taken seriously lolol

 

[The Abusement Park]

Newhook and sturm played together cause of injuries. Kadri leading in points at one stage isn’t “leading GOAL scorer”.

Bura - Mack - rantanen
Landy - Kadri - Nuke
Lehkonen - Newhook - Compher
Cogliano -Sturm - O’Connor

Sakic clearly stated lehkonen and Newhook would play together. Sturm isn’t the 3C on this team. The entire board is opposing your opinion so maybe look in the mirror about who’s posts don’t get taken seriously lolol

Sturm has very clearly been the 3C since he has been acquired?

 

[John Mandalorian]

Sturm has very clearly been the 3C since he has been acquired?

It's like the inverse of trading Pena in Moneyball.

 

[Avaholic29]

Sturm has very clearly been the 3C since he has been acquired?

So Compher to 4th line? We’ve had injuries up and down the line up since we acquired him. Newhook, lehkonen are a lock for the third line.

 

[The Abusement Park]

So Compher to 4th line? We’ve had injuries up and down the line up since we acquired him. Newhook, lehkonen are a lock for the third line.

I mean I think there’s a pretty good chance Newhook won’t be at C for the playoffs. If he isn’t playing there with all injuries why would he when the roster is fully healthy?

 

[dahrougem2]

This Byram fanboy agrees with this 100%. Byram's potential was capped the moment he was drafted by the Avs. We all saw how f***ing good Byram was as the top Dman early in the season when both Makar and Toews were out. THAT is Byram's actual potential but he'll never realize it in Colorado playing second or third fiddle.

In two years Toews will probably walk, even if he doesn't I think Byram will get the top LHD spot at that point but he'll never get PP1 minutes or the most important offensive ice time when he's on a team with Cale Makar. Good for us Colorado fans, not great for Bo Byram.

I hate to say it because Bo is my favorite player but it would have been better for him if Bowman didn't stick his head all the way up his ass and pass on Byram. Byram could have been a Makar-lite for Chicago (exactly what they needed) and I would have hated every minute of it.

The inter-division Makar vs Byram battles would have been amazing to watch, very McDavid(Makar) vs MacKinnon(Byram) feeling IMO. All that said I'm thrilled he's in Colorado, even if it does limit him.

Byram is going to be on PP2, probably as early as next season. No, it's not PP1 but if he proves he can stay healthy the Avs aren't going to have a reason to run Makar/Toews into the ground anymore since Byram will be more than capable of playing 23+ per night.

I just don't see why people think his potential is capped here. The only thing that is capped is PP1 time, yes. There still is no reason Byram can't be a 40+ point defensemen while being the top shutdown guy. That is an incredible defensemen.

Everyone can't be Cale Makar. Guys need different roles. Again, provided he stays healthy next season I'll bet Bo Byram is the guy Bednar is turning to in order to shut down the opposition and to primarily kill penalties/close out games.

 

[Avaholic29]

I mean I think there’s a pretty good chance Newhook won’t be at C for the playoffs. If he isn’t playing there with all injuries why would he when the roster is fully healthy?

I don’t see bednar sending Compher to Center the fourth but maybe. That’s the only way sturm plays 3C though.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Byram is going to be on PP2, probably as early as next season. No, it's not PP1 but if he proves he can stay healthy the Avs aren't going to have a reason to run Makar/Toews into the ground anymore since Byram will be more than capable of playing 23+ per night.

I just don't see why people think his potential is capped here. The only thing that is capped is PP1 time, yes. There still is no reason Byram can't be a 40+ point defensemen while being the top shutdown guy. That is an incredible defensemen.

Everyone can't be Cale Makar. Guys need different roles. Again, provided he stays healthy next season I'll bet Bo Byram is the guy Bednar is turning to in order to shut down the opposition and to primarily kill penalties/close out games.

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the Avs go back to a more traditional 3F 2D setup if Byram forces the issue with his play.

 

[dahrougem2]

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the Avs go back to a more traditional 3F 2D setup if Byram forces the issue with his play.

That might be too difficult given the current PP setup. You aren't taking MacKinnon off of the left half wall, and you aren't moving Makar away from the middle point. You don't want Byram in the slot, and Mikko isn't leaving the right half wall.

I don't see room for him on PP1.

 

[Ararana]

Byram is going to be on PP2, probably as early as next season. No, it's not PP1 but if he proves he can stay healthy the Avs aren't going to have a reason to run Makar/Toews into the ground anymore since Byram will be more than capable of playing 23+ per night.

I just don't see why people think his potential is capped here. The only thing that is capped is PP1 time, yes. There still is no reason Byram can't be a 40+ point defensemen while being the top shutdown guy. That is an incredible defensemen.

Everyone can't be Cale Makar. Guys need different roles. Again, provided he stays healthy next season I'll bet Bo Byram is the guy Bednar is turning to in order to shut down the opposition and to primarily kill penalties/close out games.

I pretty much agree with everything you said here. IMO Byram will be a fantastic player if he can stay healthy, and the Avs are spoiled that they got to draft both Bo and Cale. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Byram being a supporting player to the best defenseman in the league.

But I do think his offensive potential is capped, to some degree, because he's playing behind not only Makar, but Toews-Girard as well - specifically on the power play. Byram's production this year has been almost entirely 5v5. Makar, Josi, Fox... all these guys get the benefit of stat padding from prime power play minutes.

47% of Fox's points have come on 211 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.
39% of Makar's points have come on 271 PP1 minutes. 15% of his overall TOI.
39% of Josi's points have come on 233 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.

7% of Byram's points have come on 22 power play minutes. 5% of his overall TOI.

The Avs will need to start feeding this kid power play time if they want him to get anywhere near the production he's capable of putting up. Fortunately for Byram he's a very good 5v5 producer, so even without the special teams time he's still contributing. But for those of you who didn't watch much of Byram in the WHL, holy shit that kid is good on the power play when he gets extra space.

* Today I leaned Byram as the same number of goals as Seider in 53 less games. lol what the ass. Seider has 216 power play minutes this season, I don't watch Detroit so I have no idea what's going on there.

 

[Bender]

I mean you're not wrong... These are problems all contenders face.



But I guess what people here really struggle with, is the hard reality that cup contenders windows are really only ~5-7 years for the majority of teams.


And the Avs are in year 4 of being a contender right now. Hence there's only a couple years left.


I guess as Avs fans we want to be different from the normal trends but especially with our drafting ability, we aren't going to be different.

I think you're right about the window being a certain length but when you really dig into the facts, there's always a reason most contenders can't stay at the top or maintain that window for longer than the 5-7 years you're referring to. Every situation is different and throwing a blanket statement to include everyone together is just wrong.

Most teams, don't have a team as young as the Avs are currently to keep a contending window open longer than 7 years. They usually have a decent mix of youth infused with vets who are ready to win. A lot of times, those top guys contracts' come up and they can't afford to keep them or they become less effective as they get older.

Most of the time though, it's just bad roster management that does teams in as managers just tend to make mistakes. (Case-in-point : Doug Wilson - San Jose Sharks -> imagine if he had traded some of those guys to rejuvenate the team instead of doubling down thinking they'd be great FOREVER and signing them to max-term contracts?)

When you think about that 1st edition of the Avs in 1995-96, they ended up being a contender all the way up to 2003 and could have kept going another 2-3 years if it wasn't for the lockout and salary cap rollback to $39M.

Not everyone remembers 'the lumps' that team had to go through to eventually get over the hump. They came to Colorado ready to win but before that :

* In 92-93, the young Nordiques were favored over the Habs and lost in 6 games to the eventual Stanley Cup Champs.​

* In 93-94, they actually missed the playoffs which led to the hiring of Pierre Lacroix & Marc Crawford. They changed the complexion of their roster by trading Mats Sundin to Toronto.​

* In 94-95 they were the 2nd best team in the league but were still outed in the 1st round by andy vanhellemond and the New York Rangers. (Andy Van Hellemond, considered one of the NHL's best referees,)​

To me, those years were the building block years that are not unlike what the Avs have been through the past 3 years to get to this point. You can choose to view them as "contending years" if you want to, that's your perogative but most teams that end up truly contending have 'lead-up' years prior to becoming a true contender.

Back to your point that this is YEAR 4 of the contending window :

2018-19 -> this is Makar's intro into the NHL in the playoffs - sorry but you don't win the Cup without a true #1 D-Man which I don't think he was YET at that point with only 10 GP -> building year​

2019-20 -> I think the Avs had a great chance to get to the finals but were on their 3rd string goalie - bad luck - but I don't think they would have beaten Tampa Bay in the finals anyways.​

2020-21 -> I think at this point, the Avs are a true Stanley Cup contenders and should have gotten to the finals if it wasn't for some bad coaching and poor trade deadline acquisitions.​

It can be argued that 2019-20 was a contending year based on the final standings but that team needed to be re-inforced at the TDL and the Avs only added Namestnikov for a 4th round pick. Not exactly a massive endorsement from management that the team is all out to win it quite yet.

Even last season, management went out on the cheap at the TDL and acquired 2 former Avs that were washed up in Nemeth and Soderberg. They could have done so much more but it's important to keep in mind that if they had gone all in the past 2 years, then we wouldn't have drafted Barron and we wouldn't have drafted Olausson.

Contending windows can continue for a long time with shrewd management that know when to cut-bait and make the right moves. If Pierre Lacroix doesn't trade Mike Ricci to the Sharks for a 1st round pick that turns out to be Alex Tanguay and decides instead to sign him to a huge, long-term contract then who knows how that turns out in the end.

 

[dahrougem2]

I pretty much agree with everything you said here. IMO Byram will be a fantastic player if he can stay healthy, and the Avs are spoiled that they got to draft both Bo and Cale. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Byram being a supporting player to the best defenseman in the league.

But I do think his offensive potential is capped, to some degree, because he's playing behind not only Makar, but Toews-Girard as well - specifically on the power play. Byram's production this year has been almost entirely 5v5. Makar, Josi, Fox... all these guys get the benefit of stat padding from prime power play minutes.

47% of Fox's points have come on 211 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.
39% of Makar's points have come on 271 PP1 minutes. 15% of his overall TOI.
39% of Josi's points have come on 233 PP1 minutes. 12% of his overall TOI.

7% of Byram's points have come on 22 power play minutes. 5% of his overall TOI.

The Avs will need to start feeding this kid power play time if they want him to get anywhere near the production he's capable of putting up. Fortunately for Byram he's a very good 5v5 producer, so even without the special teams time he's still contributing. But for those of you who didn't watch much of Byram in the WHL, holy shit that kid is good on the power play when he gets extra space.

* Today I leaned Byram as the same number of goals as Seider in 53 less games. lol what the ass. Seider has 216 power play minutes this season, I don't watch Detroit so I have no idea what's going on there.

Byram wasn't on the PP this year because he got hurt and was a rookie. Obviously Bednar is going to trust his guys in Toews/Girard first.

We've seen what Byram can do offensively and Bednar isn't a dummy, he knows what Bo is capable of. I think as early as next season we see Byram QBing PP2.

 

[JH21]

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

So you aren't assuming the cap will be going up in coming years?

 

[Hasbro]

So you aren't assuming the cap will be going up in coming years?

He'll national inflation will do that on it's own.