I have literally done the scenarios countless times.
It is the reason I am confident we will be in a major crunch soon enough.
Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed
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I have literally done the scenarios countless times.
It is the reason I am confident we will be in a major crunch soon enough.
I mean you're not wrong... These are problems all contenders face.
But I guess what people here really struggle with, is the hard reality that cup contenders windows are really only ~5-7 years for the majority of teams.
And the Avs are in year 4 of being a contender right now. Hence there's only a couple years left.
I guess as Avs fans we want to be different from the normal trends but especially with our drafting ability, we aren't going to be different.
GirardSpinorama
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So have I, its why I think we will be fine. But then again, we might have a different idea of what a major crunch even means. Do you consider losing Saad, Graves, Donskoi and Grubs a major cap crunch?
GirardSpinorama
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We have good pro scouts that make up for the drafting concerns. How many 2nd round picks turn into a Toews? Remember we got Nuke for nothing. Not exactly easy to draft a Nuke.
And we got Byram in a great trade, so it really made up for poor drafting. We just happened to get him with Ottawa's pick but its still a better first round pick than most.
Nope.
I think we'll end up losing one of Girard or Byram, and one of Nuke or Lehkonen.
Actually if I'm being honest I think we lose Nuke this summer as much as I dont want to lose him.
Yeah that's what I said....You think the Avalanche can’t get a 4C for under $2million?
Also just FYI Sturm is the 3C here, and nope we definitely aren't getting a 3C(At least not a good one) for under 2M
GirardSpinorama
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We will trade Girard and get a butt load for him.
I don't think we're losing Nuke, its Kadri and Burakovsky that we will lose.
Seriously, I can't think of another team other than Carolina that manages the cap as well as us.
Tampa Bay certainly does. Mostly because they simply draft better then us and get regular contributions from prospects that we don't.
GirardSpinorama
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Tampa definitely draft better. They draft better than pretty much any team. But they didn't get Nuke or Toews either.
No, they got Coleman and Goodrow and won 2 cups with them, then went and got the best value contract at the deadline again this year with Hagel.
GirardSpinorama
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You can make every team look bad comparing them to the back to back champs. Not really a good argument though since Tampa paid 4 first round picks a 1 first round pick prospect for those 3 players. We got Nuke for free. Toews for two 2nd round picks. Even Tampa didn't get Coleman/Hagel/Goodrew for free.
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This is pretty telling really. The Avs are already tied for the 3rd longest active playoff streak in the league right now at 4 years. Only Washington(7) and Boston(5) have longer streaks and neither team is considered to be a legit cup contender right now. Boston maybe is a dark horse.
The Avs will mark 5 years this year, and 6 years next year in the last year before the Mack contract kicks in...
After that... History is simply not on the Avs side.
Avaholic29
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Kadri isn’t our leading goal scorer lol. As long as our core is locked up we are a contender, as you’ve been seeing without landeskog and Kadri we are still a powerhouse one way or another. Just sit back and enjoy the ride you’re the only one spouting this nonsense too lol.
Avaholic29
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Yeah that's what I said....
Also just FYI Sturm is the 3C here, and nope we definitely aren't getting a 3C(At least not a good one) for under 2M
Newhook is the 3C. Kadri is hurt and the lines are out of whack. You claimed Kadri is our leading goal scorer and think sturm is the 3C. Not sure how I’m supposed to take your claims seriously, you seem to lack the knowledge on avs hockey.
When Kadri went down with injury, he was leading our team with 83 points. Obviously he isn't now since he's missed time though he's still 2nd and only 3 points behind Mikko.
Sturm and Newhook played together tonight, guess who was the Center. I'll give you a hint, it wasn't Newhook. In fact, since Nico Sturm came to the Avs, only Nathan Mackinnon has taken more faceoffs then Sturm.
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Nico Sturm is and will be the 3rd line Center when Kadri comes back. Newhook is and will be a winger for the duration of this season and the playoff run.
Dont worry, nobody takes anything you post seriously anyway so it's all good.
Could you confirm someone talking shit about you any more? Lol, bro, love you as a fellow fan, but you do usually have a darker outlook.
Can't dismiss it's going to be difficult, but there are paths. Obvious with some luck, but every team needs that at this level.
I haven't said there's no hope or no way out. Just that they are going to lose core pieces(Girard or Byram at least), and will likely at least have to go through a couple year recycle where they aren't as competitive. Every contender has had to do it.
The difference will be whether the Avs can go through that 1-2 year retool, and come out on the other side still as a contender, like Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh were able to do, or if they cant get back to that level and fall into the pit of mediocrity for years. Like how teams like Nashville, Washington, and Winnipeg are right now, and how LA, Chicago, Detroit, and Montreal were for years before finally tearing it all down.
Where I am especially pessimistic, is that the Avs scouting and drafting f***ing sucks and there's absolutely no signs of it getting any better. If it doesn't get better, things dont look great beyond the next couple of years.
GirardSpinorama
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What you didn't consider is that Byram and Newhook are no where near their peak yet. And that we're already a contender without Byram's contributions. Even Makar isn't at his peak. And we're not losing a RFA with no arbitration rights. Just not a lot of historical examples of that.
Even if one good piece is traded, we have a proven track record of doing very well on trades. So it won't be a net loss in talent.
I honestly felt last off season losing donskoi, Saad, graves and grubs is a tougher cap crunch than the upcoming Mack extension.
Agreed that we need better scouting, but luckily That's where we did so well with the Byram trade. Managed to get that one extra high end draft pick even as a playoff teams. A very rare circumstance. If Byram was a low first round pick, we'd considered a much better drafting team finding the bluest chip, but is it really any different. We got a blue chip, don't care how.
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I also am well aware I'm not the only person who shares these opinions. Henchy has stated many of the same things many times before. Many different posters were screaming at Sakic for weeks leading up to the deadline this year to do something and that we have to be absolutely "all in" this deadline as well because they all knew this year was our best chance at a cup as well.
I think the difference is most of those posters get tired of fighting the same arguments with people when it ultimately just falls on deaf ears. Instead just opting to stay quiet, enjoy the good years while we have them, and unfortunately be the ones to say "I told you so" in 3 years from now when its game 75 of the season and we're 3 points out of a playoff spot fighting to stay relevant.
I think the difference is most of those posters get tired of fighting the same arguments with people when it ultimately just falls on deaf ears. Instead just opting to stay quiet, enjoy the good years while we have them, and unfortunately be the ones to say "I told you so" in 3 years from now when its game 75 of the season and we're 3 points out of a playoff spot fighting to stay relevant.
Makar is definitely at his peak. There's nowhere higher to go. He's already the best Dman in hockey. Now he probably has another 5-6 solid years of playing at that peak, but there's not much room left to go up when you're already the best.
With Byram and Newhook.... Personally I dont think there's a lot of room left for Byram either. He's already a really solid #2/3 sort of Dman. I dont think he has much higher upside then that. If he can stay healthy for a full year and get over the injury stuff there's growth to be had just from getting him for an entire 82 games though.
With Newhook, I hope and do believe there's room to grow. Right now he's essentially a ~35 point forward. I hope he can develop into a 55-65 point 2nd line guy, but that also means we're going to have to pay him accordingly as well. Which likely means a ~5M bridge deal after his elc expires next year. Assuming he takes those steps forward and becomes a 2nd line quality player next year. IF he doesn't well that just another completely different problem at that point anyways. With Kadri and Bura both likely cap casualties this summer, Newhook needs to step up next year and if he doesn't our depth is already taking a significant hit.
But here's another thing perhaps you're not considering.... Landeskog turns 30 later on this year. Mackinnon turns 27, and will be 28 when his next contract kicks in. How many more years of elite superstar play do these guys have left? For Landy, his first drop in play could honestly happen any day now. Hopefully we get another 2-3 solid years from him, but we might not.
Perratrooper
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I think that’s an overly pessimistic view to say we’ll be on the outside looking in 3 years from now. Three years from now based on your arguments and our current contracts we’ll have a core of:
MacKinnon
Landeskog
Rantanen
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook
Makar
Byram
Keumper
Our entire top 3 defenseman will be in their prime, only Keumper, Landy and Nuke will be 30 or older and we still have some okay prospect who have shots in Behrens and Olausson.
Our true contender window might close, especially without better drafting, but to me that is still a playoff team.
dahrougem2
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