Rumor: 2022-2022 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part 14: Sakic goes back to bed

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Obviously no one was saying that it was now or toast... people need to leave the extremes aside in those discussions...

But there was definitely a big group last year saying that Sakic needed to go all in last year because it was gonna be their best chance, that afterward it was going to be a downhill trajectory and that the window was going to start closing. Winnipeg was used a lot as an example.

But no one was saying that in 21-22 the Avs would miss the playoffs either... its all nuances and shades of grey...

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

 

[Foppa2118]

Thank you.

 

[Perratrooper]

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

Pretty large assumption that he’ll ask for $13m, especially when he stated how important it is for players to take discounts in order for a team to succeed (similar to what Crosby did in Pits). I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed a contract similar to what Barkov did. 2.5-3 mill less is massive long term. I would honestly be shocked if he signed for more than what McDavid did.

 

[Foppa2118]

It's fine, I'm guessing that was when he was struggling a little, probably no better time to see if he was willing to take a little security. I don't see any problem there.

Yeah that was my guess as well. That it was around when Darcy was struggling a bit. Joe probably just gave it a shot when his value was the lowest, but probably didn't expect it to work.

Makes for interesting speculation though on whether Joe would prefer a one year deal, or if he just offered that as an incentive so Darcy could have another year to boost his value.

If it's the former, that would be more indication they could pursue Varly who only has one year left, if it doesn't work out with Darcy.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Pretty large assumption that he’ll ask for $13m, especially when he stated how important it is for players to take discounts in order for a team to succeed (similar to what Crosby did in Pits). I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed a contract similar to what Barkov did. 2.5-3 mill less is massive long term. I would honestly be shocked if he signed for more than what McDavid did.

Not an assumption at all. He'll reset the UFA market for forwards.

The far bigger assumption is thinking Mack is going to sign for 10M simply because Barkov signed for that contract.

13M would be giving the Avs a discount as a UFA and one of the two or three best forwards in the league. When McDavid is a UFA he's going to get 15M+ and Matthews will get the same.

 

[John Mandalorian]

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

Not really. Except for this year, the Avs have been a 1 line team for the past several years. For the longest time, it was 9296 carrying the Avs. And they still do to a large extent. So now, this year you have 2nd line players having outlier seasons during contract years. I think we all expect Kadri to revert back to the player who frustrated us in 2021.

The MacKinnon contract gave them time and money to play with. But Kadri was an alternative to losing Barrie for free. Burakovsky was had with 2nd round picks.

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

Not really. But you be you.

 

[Balthazar]

Mack's next contract (approx.): 12.5M X 8 = 100M

Mack's current AAV = 6.3M
EJ's current AAV (expiring) = 6M

6.3 + 6 = 12.3

12.5M - 12.3M = 200k.

The new contract is not the end of the window and will require very minor changes in the roster to make it work.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

Not an assumption at all. He'll reset the UFA market for forwards.

The far bigger assumption is thinking Mack is going to sign for 10M simply because Barkov signed for that contract.

13M would be giving the Avs a discount as a UFA and one of the two or three best forwards in the league. When McDavid is a UFA he's going to get 15M+ and Matthews will get the same.

I don't believe that thinking $10M is a real possibility is far fetched at all. The only comparison there is after the COVID crunch is the Barkov contract. None of the players making above $10M signed their contracts since the cap crunch. There have been 27 ppg players over the 4 years and a few have gotten recent contracts Barkov, Kaprizov, Zibanejad, Makar and Point. They got 10, 9, 8.5, 9 and 9.5 respectively. Now I know that MacKinnon is more on the top end of that list than any of the others but Barkov isn't that far off and it could be argued that with his defense he is a better all around player. I get he can ask for anything but even making the McDavid and Matthews comparison to try to push for the top end the easy response in negotiations is those players are better than MacKinnon so he shouldn't be making more than them and the cap hasn't adjusted for contract inflation since those contracts. That and some of his comments about taking a discount makes me think he will be happy with $10M as a nice round number making the most on the team with and 8 year term.

I would bet money it's closer to $10M AAV than $13M.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Mack's next contract (approx.): 12.5M X 8 = 100M

Mack's current AAV = 6.3M
EJ's current AAV (expiring) = 6M

6.3 + 6 = 12.3

12.5M - 12.3M = 200k.

The new contract is not the end of the window and will require very minor changes in the roster to make it work.

It's not the end of the window. But the team won't be in nearly as good of position to win as it was before. It's just going to be a lot tighter going forwards and there will 100% casualties in the future.

 

[Bender]

It is the Mackinnon contract.


Hard for some people to hear, but it is true. When Macks new ~13M contract kicks in, this team will step backwards. And so far our drafting has shown no signs at all of being able to quickly retool and be competitive quickly afterwards.

I'll be pretty surprised if it's 13M but hey you never know.

I think he'll sign for $11m per year for 8 years on July 1st.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not really. Except for this year, the Avs have been a 1 line team for the past several years. For the longest time, it was 9296 carrying the Avs. And they still do to a large extent. So now, this year you have 2nd line players having outlier seasons during contract years. I think we all expect Kadri to revert back to the player who frustrated us in 2021.

The MacKinnon contract gave them time and money to play with. But Kadri was an alternative to losing Barrie for free. Burakovsky was had with 2nd round picks.

Not really. But you be you.

Ok, explain how the Avs can keep all of:


Landy
Mack
Mikko
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook


Makar
Toews
Byram
Girard


Kuemper
Francouz


And still ice a competitive roster. They will have literally no quality depth at all.



Or, they lose 2-3 of those guys but get some extra wiggle room to fill out the roster with actual decent players.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'll be pretty surprised if it's 13M but hey you never know.

I think he'll sign for $11m per year for 8 years on July 1st.

Even if it's 11M... $2M isn't going to make a big difference.


It's also not the Mackinnon contract itself that will necessarily be the problem causer.


That same summer Mack is a UFA, Byram and Newhook are also RFAs and now so is Meyers as well.


If Newhook and Byram continue on the upward trend, even a bridge deal for both of them will cost at least 5M each.


In other words, even if we say Mack only signs for 11.3M for a 5M raise from what he makes now... Both Byram and Newhook are getting at least 4M raises as well.


Which means, we're spending at least 13M more on just 3 players that are already currently on a roster that is right up against the cap right now, while having Kuemper making just 4.5M this year, Nuke making just 2.5M, Lehkonen just 2.3M.



The math simply does not add up.

 

[Balthazar]

It's not the end of the window. But the team won't be in nearly as good of position to win as it was before. It's just going to be a lot tighter going forwards and there will 100% casualties in the future.

So you think swapping EJ for another JJ who makes 800k = "not nearly as good as it was before"?

 

[CobraAcesS]

Even if it's 11M... $2M isn't going to make a big difference.


It's also not the Mackinnon contract itself that will necessarily be the problem causer.


That same summer Mack is a UFA, Byram and Newhook are also RFAs and now so is Meyers as well.


If Newhook and Byram continue on the upward trend, even a bridge deal for both of them will cost at least 5M each.


In other words, even if we say Mack only signs for 11.3M for a 5M raise from what he makes now... Both Byram and Newhook are getting at least 4M raises as well.


Which means, we're spending at least 13M more on just 3 players that are already currently on a roster that is right up against the cap right now, while having Kuemper making just 4.5M this year, Nuke making just 2.5M, Lehkonen just 2.3M.



The math simply does not add up.

I've seen plenty of rosters people have made that work. A lot of those guys can be spread out to impact younger players too.

It's tight, but it's not going to get any easier for any other teams, and we're not carrying bad contracts for much longer.

 

[The Abusement Park]

So you think swapping EJ for another JJ who makes 800k = "not nearly as good as it was before"?

I mean you still have to re sign Bo and Newhook. And if we get a 2C this year that's going to be 4/5mil. And a halfway decent goalie will be 5mil. It's not just simple as the only thing adding to the cap is Macks contract.

 

[Balthazar]

I mean you still have to re sign Bo and Newhook. And if we get a 2C this year that's going to be 4/5mil.

Don't we already have that issue with Mack and EJ in the lineup? How is that going to change?

What part of Mack taking EJ's money is that hard to understand?

We won't be able to spend EJ's money on other players, that's it. JTC's contract will expire as well, so that's probably Newhook money. Other players will leave and we'll have new guys coming in, as usual.

Byram was always going to be tricky.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I mean you still have to re sign Bo and Newhook. And if we get a 2C this year that's going to be 4/5mil. And a halfway decent goalie will be 5mil. It's not just simple as the only thing adding to the cap is Macks contract.

I can only imagine what argument you're responding too(I have them on ignore).


But yeah pretty much. Between Mack, Newhook, and Byram.... The Avs are going to be adding ~15M in additional cap hit in the summer of 2023.


Simply put there's just not 15M in cap space coming off the books that summer. Even if we assume both EJ and JTC stay here until contracts end, that's only 7.5M in cap space freed up(Since we would still need guys to replace them even at league minimum).



Math is hard for some but this isn't even hard math

 

[Frenchy]

LeBrun says that Sakic offered a 1 year extension to Kuemper earlier this year but his agent didn't bite.

1 year?! Jesus...

Did they say anything about a counter offer from his agent ?

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

If you have competent management, you can fill out the depth positions.

This management group has proven they can find diamonds in the rough via trade and free agency. They’ll just have to keep doing that.

The Avs will be a contender until, one of MacK, or Makar falls off.

 

[Foppa2118]

Did they say anything about a counter offer from his agent ?

Why would his agent tell Leburn what his counter offer was?

 

[Frenchy]

Why would his agent tell Leburn what his counter offer was?

i know , but something like : Sakic made a one year offer and they refused , but that was the call that started some negociations between the two sides .

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If you have competent management, you can fill out the depth positions.

This management group has proven they can find diamonds in the rough via trade and free agency. They’ll just have to keep doing that.

The Avs will be a contender until, one of MacK, or Makar falls off.

I think the most likely scenario is one of Girard or Byram gets traded in the next two years, and probably one of Lehkonen or Nichushkin as well.



It might hurt the top of the lineup a little, but would help keep the quality of the depth in tact sort of thing. Without losing any of Landy/Mack/Mikko/Cale/Toews who are IMO by far the most important guys on the team. Though I am tempted to include Nuke in that group at this point as well.

 

[Foppa2118]

Girard is the most likely to be dealt IMO and it will ensure the team can afford some depth and contend during Nate's second contract.

Bridge deals for Byram and Newhook will play a part. As will signing vet UFA's looking to go Cup hunting. As will EJ's contract coming off the books. I think this was always the plan.

I don't think moving Girard was always part of the plan. I think that happened when Toews fell in their lap and Byram made the team full time.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Don't we already have that issue with Mack and EJ in the lineup? How is that going to change?

What part of Mack taking EJ's money is that hard to understand?

We won't be able to spend EJ's money on other players, that's it. JTC's contract will expire as well, so that's probably Newhook money. Other players will leave and we'll have new guys coming in, as usual.

Byram was always going to be tricky.

Because that's not the only money that will be added? Not really sure what's so complicated about that?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Ok, explain how the Avs can keep all of:


Landy
Mack
Mikko
Nuke
Lehkonen
Newhook


Makar
Toews
Byram
Girard


Kuemper
Francouz


And still ice a competitive roster. They will have literally no quality depth at all.



Or, they lose 2-3 of those guys but get some extra wiggle room to fill out the roster with actual decent players.

That team is already competitive and a cup contender.

Remember we've iced Mcdermaid for 50+ games and JJ for 50+ games. Not exactly high paid quality depth.