I’d really like to see Husso take a couple big steps forward. Ideally, you’d like a back-up who can shoulder the starter’s load for a stretch…and that is a pretty uncomfortable prospect right now with Husso. Can he assert himself? If not, I could see the team making a move mid-season to replace him.
I agree that Husso needs to be better this season than he was last season, especially early in games. One thing that tends to get lost in the discussion about his play, though, is that he was 9-6-1. In other words, we banked 59.4% of the possible points in his starts. If you look around the league and back in time and compare that against the backups for contenders current and prior, that is a pretty good clip of points banked when you give your starter a rest. Ideally, I think he gets 24 starts this season (leaving 58 for Binnington) and if he can go something like 14-8-2 in those starts, I really don't care what his SP and GAA are to be honest. Wins and points are all that matters.
I agree with Yappi that we need Husso to take a step forward. While he went 9-6-1, I don't think that this record is very predictive of team success moving forward (especially if Binner has a small injury that forces Husso to start several games in a row rather than sheltered spot starts). Husso got a good chunk of goal support in his wins, so I view his record as a reflection of the team overcoming having the backup in net than his ability to help us bank points.
Here are the scores for each of his wins:
4-1 (ANA), 5-4 (ARI), 7-6* (SJS), 5-4 (ANA), 3-2 (LAK), 5-2 (SJS), 3-2 (MIN), 5-4 (MIN), 4-0 (MIN). The asterisk is that crazy SJ game where he relieved Binner. Husso allowed 2 goals in half a game for a 7-6 win. Worth noting that one of his wins was not in a start, but a relief effort. He went 8-6-1 in his 15 starts. His points percentage in
starts is 56.67%. The win as the backup with SJ shouldn't be discounted, but it is worth noting because it tends to skew the data a touch. He deserves credit for hanging in tight, but it is also a bit tough to give him credit for getting 2 of 2 possible points there and not factoring his other relief appearance into the equation at all. Regardless, his points percentage is good and the difference between 56% or 59% isn't what I'm worried about.
Ultimately, he got 4+ goals of support in 7 of his 9 wins. He got 5+ goals of support in 5 of his 9 wins. 3 of his 9 wins saw him allow 4 goals but get the win because our team scored 5. Binner only had 2 such games despite playing nearly triple the games as Husso. Husso allowed 4+ goals in 6 of his 15 starts and went 3-3 in those games. Plus the relief appearance where he allowed 2 goals in half a game but got the win. That is just not sustainable. To compare, Binner went 2-4-4 (plus the SJ no decision) in the 11 starts where he allowed 4+ goals. Husso allowed 4+ goals in 40% of his starts. At that rate, we'd expect him to allow 4+ in 9 or 10 starts out of a proposed 24 start schedule. If that happens, I think it is very unlikely that we bank 9-10 points in those games. Especially if they come in a stretch where we aren't able to strategically insert him into games against weaker teams or against better teams who are also starting their backup.
He had moments last season where he was shaky early and then made "that key save" at the right time to hold a lead in a high scoring affair. He deserves credit for that. His ability to park some early mistakes and keep battling is probably the reason he still has an NHL job. But his good record was very reflective of being used in favorable situations against teams where you can outscore a shaky night from your goalie. If he has to take the net for a couple weeks, it is very, very unlikely that we'll be able to outscore soft goaltending as often.
Mook, I get your point that all you really want out of a backup is to be good enough to put some points in the bank. I just think that his results/success doing it last year aren't sustainable unless he takes a step forward. In a full 82 game schedule, the odds of your starter dealing with something minor (or losing his mojo and needing a couple nights off to reset) for a week or two are pretty high. It is harder to shelter your backup for a full 82 game season than in a 56 game season where you are playing 2 game sets in every city you go to and half the teams on your schedule are bottom 5-10 teams in the league. Given those considerations, I think we need him to take a step forward in order to bank 50-55% or more of the available points when he plays.
