Holding and letting the contract run out would be terrible asset management. This summer, Army either needs to trade or extend Vlad. No middle ground.
Let's say you're Army and Tarasenko's agent comes to you today and says "if my client is not traded by this year's trade deadline, he will rescind any existing NTC waiver and refuse to waive his NTC in the future. Either he is moved in the next 2 months or he is going to play out his contract in St. Louis. He will not be signing an extension." What do you do?
Because if Tarasenko still wants out sooner than later, that is absolutely what his agent should do. Since bungling the issue this summer, that has really been the only plausible card left to play. You let Tarasenko pump up his value and then force the Blues into a situation where they have to move him quickly or commit to holding him through the contract. Players take on a lot of risk going from a good situation to an unknown situation in a UFA year. If he has a slow start in 2022/23 while he acclimates to a new team/system, that could cost him millions of dollars on the next deal. Tarasenko still holds a full NTC and his primary concern is his future. There is a decent chance that he isn't interested in a trade this summer. If that's the case, I'd rather hold him for this 2 year window with Thomas/Kyrou/Barby on budget deals than trade him now. He has fully demonstrated that he is a professional and won't let the off-ice stuff impact his job performance.
Even if he would okay a trade this summer, I'm not sold that holding him for another push in 2022/23 and letting him walk is a terrible option. I believe that the trade return on him would be good and make it worth moving him in the summer. However, it wouldn't be worth it if it is simply for futures. We are in a
massive cap crunch for 2023/24. We can't really replace him with an asset that makes $5M+ beyond 2023 because we need to worry about large raises for multiple guys (or acquiring replacements for major contributors). We can't use the freed up cap space from moving him on a UFA, because those require a multi-year commitment. If our only options are to noticeably downgrade the 2022/23 roster (to gain futures) or keep him for 2022/23 and lose him for nothing, my choice is to keep him.
Here is my top strategic choice: quickly use futures assets to acquire a legit top 4 LHD that is cost controlled for the next 2-4 years. My primary target is Chychrun, but I'm open to other options if they meet that criteria. It wouldn't be the first time Army has pulled an unexpected move out of seemingly nowhere. Keep Tarasenko, make the cap work this season as best as you can, accept that we'll be taking an overage into next season and then trade Tarasenko for futures at the draft to offset the acquisition cost of the LHD as much as possible. However, to go this route, there needs to be long talk with Tarasenko and his agent to ensure that he is comfortable with that. We need a firm commitment that he is comfortable playing out the season and then being traded at the draft. If he is not willing to commit to that, then you need to make a decision about trading him now or being willing to let him walk as a UFA.