Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[ULF_55]

Hirvonen has 6 points in 3 games... great tournament for him so far.
Knies has 2 points in 4 games. he's played well, but the results haven't been there.

Does anyone believe that Hirvonen is the better NHL propect? Don't get too worked up positively, or negatively about a few games, in a summer tournament.

Neither Hirvonen 59 nor Knies 57 were top picks, they were both near the end of the 2nd. round.

Same with Niemela at 64.

If these guys make it great!

Can't really compare them top 5 picks.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

He doesn't seem to mesh well with Cooley hopefully they're on different lines at Minnesota

Not sure if it will be permanent going forward but it seemed like the lines were switched up in the third. Slaggert ended up on the line with Cooley and Coronato and Knies was with Bordeleau and Mazur.

 

[Stephen]

Cooley seems like an interesting case. You don’t really hear of players being too much of puck hogs. Not sure if this is a Leaf bias because we want him to dish to Knies but a Center who isn’t distributing is an interesting problem.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Cooley seems like an interesting case. You don’t really hear of players being too much of puck hogs. Not sure if this is a Leaf bias because we want him to dish to Knies but a Center who isn’t distributing is an interesting problem.

I think we’re biased. Cooley has made some slick passes and found open guys over the course of the round-robin. Knies and him just can’t connect. Hope they don’t play together at Minnesota if this is how it’s going to be.

 

[rocketman588]

Cooley seems like an interesting case. You don’t really hear of players being too much of puck hogs. Not sure if this is a Leaf bias because we want him to dish to Knies but a Center who isn’t distributing is an interesting problem.

Wonder if it's a USA thing that'll be ironed out at minny

Not sure if it will be permanent going forward but it seemed like the lines were swished up in the third. Slaggert ended up on the line with Cooley and Coronato and Knies was with Bordeleau and Mazur.

If permanent hopefully it ends up being to the benefit of Knies. Would love to see him on a more cohesive unit

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Cooley seems like an interesting case. You don’t really hear of players being too much of puck hogs. Not sure if this is a Leaf bias because we want him to dish to Knies but a Center who isn’t distributing is an interesting problem.

Cooley is a bit annoying to watch, but it hasn't stopped Coronato from producing. Knies just has to be more assertive out there

 

[rocketman588]

I think we’re biased. Cooley has made some slick passes and found open guys over the course of the round-robin. Knies and him just can’t connect. Hope they don’t play together at Minnesota if this is how it’s going to be.

That or hopefully their system helps them work together better there. Unfortunately it's a weird match ATM.

 

[Petes2424]

Knies obviously played much better against Sweden. Real good pace, and he was their most physical player. Really good on the walls and down low. Crashed the net 2-3 times, etc.

Played to his strengths and really was as good as anyone (on either team) without the puck.

If you’re an American, enjoy what he brings to the table in this tournament. If you’re a Leafs fan, enjoy it while hoping he develops and gets better every game.

When it comes to physical stature and make-up, Knies has what you look for.

Still though, anyone assuming he’s going to step right into a Top 6 role with the Leafs after Minnesota’s season, or even to start the 23-24’ season, is likely going to be disappointed.

He still needs to develop or he’s not scoring in the NHL like people are hoping. Many, even assuming.

There were 3-4 opportunities in the slot against Sweden, when they were controlling play in the o-zone, but instead of rolling off the dman, getting his stick on the ice, and finding space, his first reaction is ALWAYS to physically battle dmen for space. Even higher in the slot.

If you seen the interview he gave this last weekend…. I think it was NHL Network… he even talks about his strengths right now. He admits very openly, that he physically outmuscles smaller players who haven’t filled out yet.

That won’t work in the NHL. It didn’t work for Tom Wilson, who is probably the most physically strong player we’ve seen in the last 20-25 years. It didn’t work for him, and he was already creating his own space and finding the seams, during his draft year in Plymouth. If he didn’t have that skill already, he would’ve likely been a late 2nd round pick, maybe lower as many teams seen him as a complete nutbag.

Funny story on Wilson and how strong he was/is…

There’s a large rink complex in the Detroit suburbs that used to allow what we called Pro Beer League games in the summer on Thursday nights.. Just high end pickup games late at night, by invite only. These guys would be drinking on the lake all day long, then head to the rink late at night to play. So it really was a beer league type thing. Fun times. Very informal, no refs, no checking most of the time. You had to be a current/former Pro, College or a FORMER Junior player, to play. Two former NHL goalies ran it.

Let’s just say this was the last night they played these games, as nobody wanted to be sued. Another high-end Junior Whaler at the time, used to train with some of the college players, a few Detroit based NHL players, etc…. and even though he was underage, he used to beg them to play. They finally said yes and that night, they were short another player so they asked this junior player if he could bring another player. Oh, he did alright…. The moron he brought, flat out attacked a former pro from the Devils organisation who was a career AHLer, and played in Europe too. He may have played 5-10 NHL games in ten years, but was as strong as they come. Like nobody messed with him. My kid was a tough player but he was smart enough never to call this player out. Wilson though? He just went after him for fun.

After the brawl the normal group were at the bar and obviously it was the subject of the night. The Captain of an NHL team at the time, the career minor leaguer who was attacked and those older college kids who Wilson trained with sometimes too, all said the same thing. They couldn’t understand how a 17 year old kid was that tough and strong.

So if a young kid like Wilson couldn’t walk into the NHL at 20 years old and use his strength to overpower his way into scoring, nobody is going to be able to.

For all you analytics people, it’s funny, and managers and scouts laugh about this exact subject. Why do you think a player with Knies’ physical attributes, is drafted in the 2nd Rd? Why is someone with Carter Mazur’s physical attributes, drafted in the 3rd Rd?

Both players will obviously have a certain amount of 1st Rd forward picks (from the 2021 draft) who are similar to their size and share their physical attributes.

So why was Mazur a 3rd Rounder and Knies a 2nd Rounder?

Because teams and Central Scouting didn’t know if they’d develop into being able to score in the NHL. They currently didn’t have the skills to find seams, create open ice, etc. The skill that separates NHL player from each other. Those who can, end up Top 6 players. Those who can’t, end up bottom six players because all these players in the NHL are very, very skilled players.

It’s why guys line Zadina and Kakko are still struggling. They still haven’t developed the way their teams hoped.

Everything to do with where a forward is drafted, generally depends on ONE factor that Trumps every other factor. One analytics can’t judge, even though it’s easy to physically see.

The secondary factors like size, speed, strength, skating, tendencies, etc, are how teams rate players into certain rounds. Then they ask themselves, does this player create his own shot? Does he find the seams? Does he find open ice and put himself in position to score?

They then move those players into their first round graded players.

It really is that simple. It’s also why we had so much bad information from Central Scouting with the 2021 draft. They had so little information on many of the North American kids. On some, they likely only watched brief film on, and maybe that kid didn’t have a good game, or didn’t show he could create his own shot, etc.

For Knies and Mazur though, they were probably rated about where they needed to be.

Knies was a 2nd rounder all day long. His physical attributes tell us, if he can’t score in the NHL because he doesn’t find the open ice, he’s still likely to be a very good 3rd line wing.

Mazur isn’t as physically gifted. So for him, without that skill to find open ice, he’s not a lock because he doesn’t have the same physical attributes. So they’d keep trying to develop him for longer and hope.

It’s not strange but it’s also not the norm, that a player develops this skill in only a few months, as Mazur has.

So right now, Knies doesn’t create his own space, and doesn’t find those seams to be a scoring forward. Remember, even depending solely on his physical strength, he’s never scored 20 goals.

The concern is the Leafs ruin him and don’t let him develop, OR, like Zadina, they try to allow him to do it at the NHL level. That never works out. Even if guys ultimately do, it usually takes them longer, than biting the bullet and forcing the player to play a full season in the AHL, against men and against good Dmen.

Right now, if Knies doesn’t figure it out, and 75-80% of forwards never do, he’s likely to be a Justin Abdelkader.

So whether they keep him in the NHL next year or not, that won’t change if he doesn’t develop properly.

Yea, the Leafs need a couple guys with his physical tools and style, in their bottom six. That’s the scary part. That Dubas, who’s starting to feel some pressure, keeps him in the NHL on the 3rd line, hoping he figures it out. Sometimes that ruins a player but most of the time it just stunts their growth and they end up a 3rd/4th line player for their career.

A full year in the AHL at 20 years old, is not going to make or break the Leafs. It can however, be the difference in the players career. In this case, being a Justin Abdelkader, or a 60-70 point, Top 6 wing.

Let’s hope the Leafs make the right decision if he doesn’t develop these skills before going pro. It’s a disservice to the player, if they push him into a place he’s not ready to assume.

 

[stickty111]

So far what we have seen from Knies is he can play on an NHL 3rd line. His physical attributes with his ability to close in physically can cause issues to the opposition. The offense might not come right away but the skills are there. Another thing and this is a complement to his potential, he's better served when he is more involved on the puck on offense. Playing with Cooley and Coronato, he plays like the 3rd wheel and while he can play that role, he's better when more of a focal point.

Basically, NHL ready on present who would look fine on the 3rd line. It's clear why Leafs wanted him because he can play in the NHL with his current skill set

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Cooley is a bit annoying to watch, but it hasn't stopped Coronato from producing. Knies just has to be more assertive out there

They can thank Knies for doing what he does. Maybe it is not showing up points-wise, but those guys are not succeeding without Knies' help in front of the net and along the boards.

And if Knies decides to skill it up a little bit more rather than be the grinder, he likely gets more points and his line mates likely struggle to find space. In the end, he may be more successful but his line likely won't be.

It is good that he is worried more about team success than individual success. It is the same type of leadership and behaviour that Tavares displays (and results in constant and harsh criticism) to drive his line.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Knies obviously played much better against Sweden. Real good pace, and he was their most physical player. Really good on the walls and down low. Crashed the net 2-3 times, etc.

Played to his strengths and really was as good as anyone (on either team) without the puck.

If you’re an American, enjoy what he brings to the table in this tournament. If you’re a Leafs fan, enjoy it while hoping he develops and gets better every game.

When it comes to physical stature and make-up, Knies has what you look for.

Still though, anyone assuming he’s going to step right into a Top 6 role with the Leafs after Minnesota’s season, or even to start the 23-24’ season, is likely going to be disappointed.

He still needs to develop or he’s not scoring in the NHL like people are hoping. Many, even assuming.

There were 3-4 opportunities in the slot against Sweden, when they were controlling play in the o-zone, but instead of rolling off the dman, getting his stick on the ice, and finding space, his first reaction is ALWAYS to physically battle dmen for space. Even higher in the slot.

If you seen the interview he gave this last weekend…. I think it was NHL Network… he even talks about his strengths right now. He admits very openly, that he physically outmuscles smaller players who haven’t filled out yet.

That won’t work in the NHL. It didn’t work for Tom Wilson, who is probably the most physically strong player we’ve seen in the last 20-25 years. It didn’t work for him, and he was already creating his own space and finding the seams, during his draft year in Plymouth. If he didn’t have that skill already, he would’ve likely been a late 2nd round pick, maybe lower as many teams seen him as a complete nutbag.

Funny story on Wilson and how strong he was/is…

There’s a large rink complex in the Detroit suburbs that used to allow what we called Pro Beer League games in the summer on Thursday nights.. Just high end pickup games late at night, by invite only. These guys would be drinking on the lake all day long, then head to the rink late at night to play. So it really was a beer league type thing. Fun times. Very informal, no refs, no checking most of the time. You had to be a current/former Pro, College or a FORMER Junior player, to play. Two former NHL goalies ran it.

Let’s just say this was the last night they played these games, as nobody wanted to be sued. Another high-end Junior Whaler at the time, used to train with some of the college players, a few Detroit based NHL players, etc…. and even though he was underage, he used to beg them to play. They finally said yes and that night, they were short another player so they asked this junior player if he could bring another player. Oh, he did alright…. The moron he brought, flat out attacked a former pro from the Devils organisation who was a career AHLer, and played in Europe too. He may have played 5-10 NHL games in ten years, but was as strong as they come. Like nobody messed with him. My kid was a tough player but he was smart enough never to call this player out. Wilson though? He just went after him for fun.

After the brawl the normal group were at the bar and obviously it was the subject of the night. The Captain of an NHL team at the time, the career minor leaguer who was attacked and those older college kids who Wilson trained with sometimes too, all said the same thing. They couldn’t understand how a 17 year old kid was that tough and strong.

So if a young kid like Wilson couldn’t walk into the NHL at 20 years old and use his strength to overpower his way into scoring, nobody is going to be able to.

For all you analytics people, it’s funny, and managers and scouts laugh about this exact subject. Why do you think a player with Knies’ physical attributes, is drafted in the 2nd Rd? Why is someone with Carter Mazur’s physical attributes, drafted in the 3rd Rd?

Both players will obviously have a certain amount of 1st Rd forward picks (from the 2021 draft) who are similar to their size and share their physical attributes.

So why was Mazur a 3rd Rounder and Knies a 2nd Rounder?

Because teams and Central Scouting didn’t know if they’d develop into being able to score in the NHL. They currently didn’t have the skills to find seams, create open ice, etc. The skill that separates NHL player from each other. Those who can, end up Top 6 players. Those who can’t, end up bottom six players because all these players in the NHL are very, very skilled players.

It’s why guys line Zadina and Kakko are still struggling. They still haven’t developed the way their teams hoped.

Everything to do with where a forward is drafted, generally depends on ONE factor that Trumps every other factor. One analytics can’t judge, even though it’s easy to physically see.

The secondary factors like size, speed, strength, skating, tendencies, etc, are how teams rate players into certain rounds. Then they ask themselves, does this player create his own shot? Does he find the seams? Does he find open ice and put himself in position to score?

They then move those players into their first round graded players.

It really is that simple. It’s also why we had so much bad information from Central Scouting with the 2021 draft. They had so little information on many of the North American kids. On some, they likely only watched brief film on, and maybe that kid didn’t have a good game, or didn’t show he could create his own shot, etc.

For Knies and Mazur though, they were probably rated about where they needed to be.

Knies was a 2nd rounder all day long. His physical attributes tell us, if he can’t score in the NHL because he doesn’t find the open ice, he’s still likely to be a very good 3rd line wing.

Mazur isn’t as physically gifted. So for him, without that skill to find open ice, he’s not a lock because he doesn’t have the same physical attributes. So they’d keep trying to develop him for longer and hope.

It’s not strange but it’s also not the norm, that a player develops this skill in only a few months, as Mazur has.

So right now, Knies doesn’t create his own space, and doesn’t find those seams to be a scoring forward. Remember, even depending solely on his physical strength, he’s never scored 20 goals.

The concern is the Leafs ruin him and don’t let him develop, OR, like Zadina, they try to allow him to do it at the NHL level. That never works out. Even if guys ultimately do, it usually takes them longer, than biting the bullet and forcing the player to play a full season in the AHL, against men and against good Dmen.

Right now, if Knies doesn’t figure it out, and 75-80% of forwards never do, he’s likely to be a Justin Abdelkader.

So whether they keep him in the NHL next year or not, that won’t change if he doesn’t develop properly.

Yea, the Leafs need a couple guys with his physical tools and style, in their bottom six. That’s the scary part. That Dubas, who’s starting to feel some pressure, keeps him in the NHL on the 3rd line, hoping he figures it out. Sometimes that ruins a player but most of the time it just stunts their growth and they end up a 3rd/4th line player for their career.

A full year in the AHL at 20 years old, is not going to make or break the Leafs. It can however, be the difference in the players career. In this case, being a Justin Abdelkader, or a 60-70 point, Top 6 wing.

Let’s hope the Leafs make the right decision if he doesn’t develop these skills before going pro. It’s a disservice to the player, if they push him into a place he’s not ready to assume.

Yup, if he doesn't develop his skills, he won't meet his potential.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

They can thank Knies for doing what he does. Maybe it is not showing up points-wise, but those guys are not succeeding without Knies' help in front of the net and along the boards.

And if Knies decides to skill it up a little bit more rather than be the grinder, he likely gets more points and his line mates likely struggle to find space. In the end, he may be more successful but his line likely won't be.

It is good that he is worried more about team success than individual success. It is the same type of leadership and behaviour that Tavares displays (and results in constant and harsh criticism) to drive his line.

That's true, but I think Knies is a bit too talented for a role like that in this tournament. I liked his play better when he was with Mazur and Bordeleau, because they can contribute in multiple areas of the game

 

[stickty111]

Overall nice showing by Knies and it's clear he will look fine on the 3rd line late in the year, but don't put Cooley and Knies together in Minnesota.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

That's true, but I think Knies is a bit too talented for a role like that in this tournament. I liked his play better when he was with Mazur and Bordeleau, because they can contribute in multiple areas of the game

That is why I think he would work well with Tavares and Nylander. He pairs up well with both in a different way. Whereas with a pair of undersized perimeter players like Coronato and Cooley, he had to overcompensate for the lack of "in-tight" ability (I don't want to say "size" because I think guys like Bunting prove you don't need to be big or even overly physical to do the job) on that line and was forced into a role in a similar way that Tavares was when he was paired with Kerfoot and Nylander.

I think Knies and Cooley can work together at the University of Minnesota, but they need a guy who can work in tight so Knies doesn't have to do it all the time. Coronato is not that guy. Doesn't even need to be anyone good; just someone who will share some of the dirty work... And then Knies will be absolutely spoiled when he can work with a guy like Tavares who is also extremely skilled on top of doing the dirty work, much like himself.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Overall nice showing by Knies and it's clear he will look fine on the 3rd line late in the year, but don't put Cooley and Knies together in Minnesota.

Why the 3rd line? I'd put him 2nd line with Tavares and Nylander and if he can't handle it, then maybe move him down or out.

The 2nd line is probably the best place for him, even if he is going up against tougher competition. He is also playing with much better players, it is not a line which needs to handle super heavy defensive minutes, and I actually think it would be a more straight forward role for him. Keep your head up, get to the right spots, and work hard. That is all he needs to do to be an excellent player on that line.

Plus I think putting him with Tavares is a great way for Knies to learn the ropes from an elite NHL veteran who actually plays a game which is not too dissimilar from his own.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I don't see how this tournament is considered anything other then a disappointment for Knies. He didn't make enough of an impact for his team regardless of reasons or excuses for why he didn't get anything done. This isn't some indictment on what I think his future is, I think he will be a very good NHL player. He wasn't good enough this week though.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Random summer tournament, wouldn't take a ton out of it.

How excited would we be right now if we had Kulich though?

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Will look really good crashing the puck home when jt and nylander take it to the net. He's exactly what they need and any growing pains will be off set by two all stars doing 90% of the work. Knies competes hard with his 10% and he will have a good season (whatever fraction he plays)

 

[Mess]

Random summer tournament, wouldn't take a ton out of it.

How excited would we be right now if we had Kulich though?

Matthew Knies had a pretty ordinary tournament with 3 assists in 5 games, no WOW moments and his favoured USA team got upset.

Now of course young Czech forward Jiri Kulich [2022 round 1 #28 overall by Buffalo Sabres] was putting on a clinic in this tournament and game against USA with 1 goal and 2 assists in the upset and 2-4-6 poinits in 5 games so far.

How exciting would it be if both Kniews and Kulich were Leafs prospects?

Sadly we had to trade away our 1st rounder (#25th overall) in 2022 to clean up another GM mistakes with Mrazek. But all those that keep making excuses for the GM, as "No Big deal", then Jiri Kulich is just one such player that is saying it is a big deal.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Matthew Knies had a pretty ordinary tournament with 3 assists in 5 games, no WOW moments and his favoured USA team got upset.

Now of course young Czech forward Jiri Kulich [2022 round 1 #28 overall by Buffalo Sabres] was putting on a clinic in this tournament and game against USA with 1 goal and 2 assists in the upset and 2-4-6 poinits in 5 games so far.

How exciting would it be if both Kniews and Kulich were Leafs prospects?

Sadly we had to trade away our 1st rounder (#25th overall) in 2022 to clean up another GM mistakes with Mrazek. But all those that keep making excuses for the GM, as "No Big deal", then Jiri Kulich is just one such player that is saying it is a big deal.

Kulich seems like a good bet to be a 2-3C

Hopefully Minten has a good D+1 season.

 

[Mess]

Kulich seems like a good bet to be a 2-3C

Hopefully Minten has a good D+1 season.

I'm hoping Knies has a big season at Univ. of Minnesota and builds off last year as he is being counted on in Toronto to be a success story.

He is off to a slow start to the year as he wasn't much of a factor a Leafs rookie camp earlier (based on reports and comments) and this tournament left a lot to be desired as Leafs #1 prospect in the system.

The way Matthew played in this tournament didn't look like he was ready to step into an NHL role and make an impact, like we had originally hoped after his last season in college when his star was burning brighter.

WJC is small tournament in length, but is usually seen as a big deal to scouts though, when they get to see all these top players from there own countries go head to head best of their age class.

Was excited to see Knies play, but performance didn't meet expectations for me. His linemates Matt Coronato (5 games 4-3-7 points) and Logan Cooley (5 games 2-4-6 points) where putting on a show, but Knies was clearly the 3rd wheel and passenger of that trio with a disappointing 3 assists as USA 2nd line in this tournament.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I hoping Knies has a big season at Univ. of Minnesota and builds off last year as he is being counted on in Toronto to be a success story.

He is off to a slow start to the year as he wasn't much of a factor a Leafs rookie camp earlier (based on reports and comments) and this tournament left a lot to be desired.

The way Matthew played in this tournament didn't look like he was ready to step into an NHL role and make an impact, like we had originally hoped after his last season in college when his star was burning brighter.

WJC is small tournament in length, but is usually seen as a big deal to scouts though, when they get to see all these top players from there own countries go head to head best of their age class.

Was excited to see Knies play, but performance didn't meet expectations for me. His linemates Matt Coronato (5 games 4-3-7 points) and Logan Cooley (5 games 2-4-6 points) where putting on a show, but Knies was clearly the 3rd wheel and passenger of that trio with a disappointing 3 assists as USA 2nd line in this tournament.

From what others have said on here, he didn't have a ton of chemistry with the 2.

I could also see Knies being much more effective in the NHL when he's able to ramp up the physicality.

 

[Leaf Fans]

From what others have said on here, he didn't have a ton of chemistry with the 2.

I could also see Knies being much more effective in the NHL when he's able to ramp up the physicality.

Knies was very good in the tournament.

 

[andora]

Knies obviously played much better against Sweden. Real good pace, and he was their most physical player. Really good on the walls and down low. Crashed the net 2-3 times, etc.

Played to his strengths and really was as good as anyone (on either team) without the puck.

If you’re an American, enjoy what he brings to the table in this tournament. If you’re a Leafs fan, enjoy it while hoping he develops and gets better every game.

When it comes to physical stature and make-up, Knies has what you look for.

Still though, anyone assuming he’s going to step right into a Top 6 role with the Leafs after Minnesota’s season, or even to start the 23-24’ season, is likely going to be disappointed.

He still needs to develop or he’s not scoring in the NHL like people are hoping. Many, even assuming.

There were 3-4 opportunities in the slot against Sweden, when they were controlling play in the o-zone, but instead of rolling off the dman, getting his stick on the ice, and finding space, his first reaction is ALWAYS to physically battle dmen for space. Even higher in the slot.

If you seen the interview he gave this last weekend…. I think it was NHL Network… he even talks about his strengths right now. He admits very openly, that he physically outmuscles smaller players who haven’t filled out yet.

That won’t work in the NHL. It didn’t work for Tom Wilson, who is probably the most physically strong player we’ve seen in the last 20-25 years. It didn’t work for him, and he was already creating his own space and finding the seams, during his draft year in Plymouth. If he didn’t have that skill already, he would’ve likely been a late 2nd round pick, maybe lower as many teams seen him as a complete nutbag.

Funny story on Wilson and how strong he was/is…

There’s a large rink complex in the Detroit suburbs that used to allow what we called Pro Beer League games in the summer on Thursday nights.. Just high end pickup games late at night, by invite only. These guys would be drinking on the lake all day long, then head to the rink late at night to play. So it really was a beer league type thing. Fun times. Very informal, no refs, no checking most of the time. You had to be a current/former Pro, College or a FORMER Junior player, to play. Two former NHL goalies ran it.

Let’s just say this was the last night they played these games, as nobody wanted to be sued. Another high-end Junior Whaler at the time, used to train with some of the college players, a few Detroit based NHL players, etc…. and even though he was underage, he used to beg them to play. They finally said yes and that night, they were short another player so they asked this junior player if he could bring another player. Oh, he did alright…. The moron he brought, flat out attacked a former pro from the Devils organisation who was a career AHLer, and played in Europe too. He may have played 5-10 NHL games in ten years, but was as strong as they come. Like nobody messed with him. My kid was a tough player but he was smart enough never to call this player out. Wilson though? He just went after him for fun.

After the brawl the normal group were at the bar and obviously it was the subject of the night. The Captain of an NHL team at the time, the career minor leaguer who was attacked and those older college kids who Wilson trained with sometimes too, all said the same thing. They couldn’t understand how a 17 year old kid was that tough and strong.

So if a young kid like Wilson couldn’t walk into the NHL at 20 years old and use his strength to overpower his way into scoring, nobody is going to be able to.

For all you analytics people, it’s funny, and managers and scouts laugh about this exact subject. Why do you think a player with Knies’ physical attributes, is drafted in the 2nd Rd? Why is someone with Carter Mazur’s physical attributes, drafted in the 3rd Rd?

Both players will obviously have a certain amount of 1st Rd forward picks (from the 2021 draft) who are similar to their size and share their physical attributes.

So why was Mazur a 3rd Rounder and Knies a 2nd Rounder?

Because teams and Central Scouting didn’t know if they’d develop into being able to score in the NHL. They currently didn’t have the skills to find seams, create open ice, etc. The skill that separates NHL player from each other. Those who can, end up Top 6 players. Those who can’t, end up bottom six players because all these players in the NHL are very, very skilled players.

It’s why guys line Zadina and Kakko are still struggling. They still haven’t developed the way their teams hoped.

Everything to do with where a forward is drafted, generally depends on ONE factor that Trumps every other factor. One analytics can’t judge, even though it’s easy to physically see.

The secondary factors like size, speed, strength, skating, tendencies, etc, are how teams rate players into certain rounds. Then they ask themselves, does this player create his own shot? Does he find the seams? Does he find open ice and put himself in position to score?

They then move those players into their first round graded players.

It really is that simple. It’s also why we had so much bad information from Central Scouting with the 2021 draft. They had so little information on many of the North American kids. On some, they likely only watched brief film on, and maybe that kid didn’t have a good game, or didn’t show he could create his own shot, etc.

For Knies and Mazur though, they were probably rated about where they needed to be.

Knies was a 2nd rounder all day long. His physical attributes tell us, if he can’t score in the NHL because he doesn’t find the open ice, he’s still likely to be a very good 3rd line wing.

Mazur isn’t as physically gifted. So for him, without that skill to find open ice, he’s not a lock because he doesn’t have the same physical attributes. So they’d keep trying to develop him for longer and hope.

It’s not strange but it’s also not the norm, that a player develops this skill in only a few months, as Mazur has.

So right now, Knies doesn’t create his own space, and doesn’t find those seams to be a scoring forward. Remember, even depending solely on his physical strength, he’s never scored 20 goals.

The concern is the Leafs ruin him and don’t let him develop, OR, like Zadina, they try to allow him to do it at the NHL level. That never works out. Even if guys ultimately do, it usually takes them longer, than biting the bullet and forcing the player to play a full season in the AHL, against men and against good Dmen.

Right now, if Knies doesn’t figure it out, and 75-80% of forwards never do, he’s likely to be a Justin Abdelkader.

So whether they keep him in the NHL next year or not, that won’t change if he doesn’t develop properly.

Yea, the Leafs need a couple guys with his physical tools and style, in their bottom six. That’s the scary part. That Dubas, who’s starting to feel some pressure, keeps him in the NHL on the 3rd line, hoping he figures it out. Sometimes that ruins a player but most of the time it just stunts their growth and they end up a 3rd/4th line player for their career.

A full year in the AHL at 20 years old, is not going to make or break the Leafs. It can however, be the difference in the players career. In this case, being a Justin Abdelkader, or a 60-70 point, Top 6 wing.

Let’s hope the Leafs make the right decision if he doesn’t develop these skills before going pro. It’s a disservice to the player, if they push him into a place he’s not ready to assume.

Just wanted to say thabk you for the post and the story

This is incredibly accurate

 

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From what others have said on here, he didn't have a ton of chemistry with the 2.

I could also see Knies being much more effective in the NHL when he's able to ramp up the physicality.

Top prospect Logan Cooley drafted #3 overall by Arizona will be joining Knies at Univ. of Minnesota this year.

Going to be interesting how that changes that team dynamics this college season. Does Knies take a step up or take more of a backseat playing with or playing behind teammates.

Playing with Cooley would elevate his play and production, but because of this tournament and chemistry issues they might not play together and only see PP time together.