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Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft 1st Overall Pick, Alexis Lafreniere, LW

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Thirty One said:
He did purposely come in leaner. I didn’t clock him before and after, though.
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Well another possible angle to that is that, as guys get older they realize that heavy muscle mass is more difficult to maintain and leaning down can be beneficial to remaining as fast and agile as you were at a younger age. Also, after a blood clot, it’s not surprising to see someone assess whether they’re carrying an optimal body weight or more mass than they need to. You can be really lean, shredded, at 5’7 250 if you want to be (with a metric ton of hard work, discipline, steroids, etc) but that’s not really a healthy weight to be walking around at long term, even if you look like a god.

On an unrelated note, blood clots are a common side effect of exogenous testosterone use and there seems to be a higher than average incidence of young healthy males with blood clot issues in the NHL.
 
Chytilmania said:
Did he though? (I'm asking honestly because I wasn't aware of that)

We don't have access to his body composition pre and post blood clot so it's speculation.
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"A lean and mean machine, that’s the new and improved Chris Kreider, who is at least a step faster after having dropped about 15 pounds in the aftermath of his rib resection. Kreider, who had been playing at 235 pounds, intends to maintain his physique going forward.
“What I’ve learned is that by getting to the puck even a millisecond sooner, you have such an advantage in battles because you have the leverage,” Kreider told The Post. “I don’t think I’m giving up anything in my ability to be physical, either. So this is a good weight for me. I’m not looking to put it back on in my offseason training.”"

https://nypost.com/2018/03/21/this-skinny-chris-kreider-is-even-more-indispensable-to-rangers/

From his own mouth.
 
GoAwayStaal said:
"A lean and mean machine, that’s the new and improved Chris Kreider, who is at least a step faster after having dropped about 15 pounds in the aftermath of his rib resection. Kreider, who had been playing at 235 pounds, intends to maintain his physique going forward.
“What I’ve learned is that by getting to the puck even a millisecond sooner, you have such an advantage in battles because you have the leverage,” Kreider told The Post. “I don’t think I’m giving up anything in my ability to be physical, either. So this is a good weight for me. I’m not looking to put it back on in my offseason training.”"

https://nypost.com/2018/03/21/this-skinny-chris-kreider-is-even-more-indispensable-to-rangers/

From his own mouth.
Click to expand...

At 6’3, 235lbs is well into the realm of diminishing returns. 10 guys in the entire NHL were 235 or above last season and 3 people on that list were 6’7 or above (Chara, Oleksiak, Boyle). It also includes Chris Stewart and Roman Polak who are both done.

One of the things Kreider mentioned in that excerpt was “the right weight”. There are a lot of guys in the NHL who are in this 6’2-6’3 185-190 weight range and I think that, if they did the right kind of training, virtually all of them would benefit from getting up around 205lbs, and really not lose anything. But getting up as high as 225-235, is a different story. As Kreider said, it’s about what is optimal.

On the flip side, the process of getting as big and as strong as he did on his way up to 235 probably contributed to how fast he is and now dropping weight makes him faster. If he’d never weighed more than 215lbs, I’d wager he wouldn’t be as fast as he is having put in the work to get up to 235 and then trimming down to 220.
 
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Loki Dog 74 said:
At 6’3, 235lbs is well into the realm of diminishing returns. 10 guys in the entire NHL were 235 or above last season and 3 people on that list were 6’7 or above (Chara, Oleksiak, Boyle). It also includes Chris Stewart and Roman Polak who are both done.

One of the things Kreider mentioned in that excerpt was “the right weight”. There are a lot of guys in the NHL who are in this 6’2-6’3 185-190 weight range and I think that, if they did the right kind of training, virtually all of them would benefit from getting up around 205lbs, and really not lose anything. But getting up as high as 225-235, is a different story. As Kreider said, it’s about what is optimal.

On the flip side, the process of getting as big and as strong as he did on his way up to 235 probably contributed to how fast he is and now dropping weight makes him faster. If he’d never weighed more than 215lbs, I’d wager he wouldn’t be as fast as he is having put in the work to get up to 235 and then trimming down to 220.
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Agreed with all of this. And I will say even at 6'3 it's hard to be 235 and shredded. It's likely he dropped a lot of fat when he lost weight.
 
GoAwayStaal said:
"A lean and mean machine, that’s the new and improved Chris Kreider, who is at least a step faster after having dropped about 15 pounds in the aftermath of his rib resection. Kreider, who had been playing at 235 pounds, intends to maintain his physique going forward.
“What I’ve learned is that by getting to the puck even a millisecond sooner, you have such an advantage in battles because you have the leverage,” Kreider told The Post. “I don’t think I’m giving up anything in my ability to be physical, either. So this is a good weight for me. I’m not looking to put it back on in my offseason training.”"

https://nypost.com/2018/03/21/this-skinny-chris-kreider-is-even-more-indispensable-to-rangers/

From his own mouth.
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He's right. Dropping weight definitely made him faster. It's highly likely he dropped a lot of body fat. It's hard to be shredded at 235.
 
Levitate said:
I'm allowing myself to be slightly excited we'll see him play this year.

Camps need to start soon for that though right? Right??
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I think camp likely starts December 31st if it is a 2 week camp and the season starts on January 13th. There must be a reason they picked the 13th as a target date. So I think it might not even be a 2 week “active” camp when taking into account the 7 day quarantine rule prior to arriving and having to navigate around Christmas too. I think the breakdown is going to be Dec. 27th-January 2nd players must be in their home cities quarantining. January 3rd-January 12th camp. Maybe 1-2 exhibition games but highly unlikely. First couple days are phyiscals and fitness test. Only leaves a week to train.
 
Levitate said:
if he's 200 lbs right now he's not gonna put on 10 lbs of anything but water in less than a month
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Lol he won't put on 10 lbs of muscle over the next month but c'mon just water weight?
The benefit of strength training right now is having peak maximal strength for the beginning of the season. Athletes do not lift as vigorously during the season so they need to start the season as strong as possible. Then during the season you want to maintain that strength and muscle mass as long as possible. Losing a bit is inevitable.
 
Chytilmania said:
Agreed with all of this. And I will say even at 6'3 it's hard to be 235 and shredded. It's likely he dropped a lot of fat when he lost weight.
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It's more likely he lost a lot of muscle. He wasn't training when he was out... He was recovering from blood clot surgery and couldn't do any intense physical activity.

Impossible to maintain muscle and lose fat if you're not working out for an extended period of time.
 
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Profet said:
It's more likely he lost a lot of muscle. He wasn't training when he was out... He was recovering from blood clot surgery and couldn't do any intense physical activity.

Impossible to maintain muscle and lose fat if you're not working out for an extended period of time.
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there certainly is a way and there was a study on it as well ;)
But definitely not what kreider did for sure.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejm199607043350101

Little old but good study and good read if you’re into this kinda stuff
 
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Levitate said:
if he's 200 lbs right now he's not gonna put on 10 lbs of anything but water in less than a month
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Depends on where he falls within the "ish" part of 200-ish.

If he's hovering closer to 205 in late November, you could have him at 208/209 by mid-January --- I mean all of this being give or take a few pounds here and there.

The overall point that he'll likely be bigger than the 6'1, 193 listing that most people are used to seeing. The question is how much bigger.
 
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So two of the questions I keep getting asked the most are:

1. How high is Lafreniere's potential?
2. How does he compare to past first overall picks, namely MacKinnon.

The answer to the first question is that I think you're looking at a player with legit franchise-level potential. He's that good.

The answer to the second question is little harder to pin point, but I think Lafreniere holds his own quite well at the same age.

MacKinnon is a natural comparison because they both came from Q, they both have physical/competitive side, and they have very good physical frames as well.

Frankly, having seen both players as teenagers, I honestly think Lafreniere is right where MacKinnon was at the roughly the same ages. Obviously it's impossible to say if Lafreniere will hit the levels that MacKinnon has, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility either. It's certainly not wish-casting.

Play wise, both guys dominated. That's a given.

But even if we just look at the numbers, and adjust for games played, the results at the same age are remarkably similar. Again, that's not the sole gauge for future success, but it is at least worth looking at.

I removed Lafreniere's draft season, because he was almost a year older than MacKinnon at that point in time. But if we line up Lafreniere's D-2 and D-1 seasons, he's only about 5 weeks younger than MacKinnon was. If we just do a simple adjustment for regular season and playoff games played, we get this result in a blind sampling of statistical results:

upload_2020-12-12_21-46-42.png
 
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Edge said:
Not out of the realm of possibility.

Preliminary reports (unconfirmed) have Lafreniere at around 6'2, 200-ish right now.
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Interesting. The chances of a late 18 year old growing another inch are under 10%. He was last measured for the WJC to my knowledge. A lot of the reports I read leading up to the draft was that he was extremely filled out for his body type and there wasn’t a lot of weight gain expected.
 
QJL said:
Interesting. The chances of a late 18 year old growing another inch are under 10%. He was last measured for the WJC to my knowledge. A lot of the reports I read leading up to the draft was that he was extremely filled out for his body type and there wasn’t a lot of weight gain expected.
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I think the challenge is also that people view these things as hard, exact numbers.

So a guy is 6'1 1/4 and 193 pounds, and subsequently listed at 6'1, 195. He then grows to 6'1 3/4 and 198 so it becomes 6'2, 200. On paper it shows up as an inch and 5 pounds, when in reality it could only be 1/2 an inch and a few pounds. So it's never quite as exact as we discuss or team's list.
 
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Edge said:
I think the challenge is also that people view this things as hard, exact numbers.

So a guy is 6'1 1/4 and 193 pounds, and subsequently listed at 6'1, 195. He then grows to 6'1 3/4 and 198 so it becomes 6'2, 200. On paper it shows up as an inch and 5 pounds, when in reality it could only be 1/2 an inch and a few pounds. So it's never quite as exact as we discuss or team's list.
Click to expand...

Another reason you guys should just switch to the metric system
 
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