HF Habs: 2020 Montreal Canadiens Off-Season Thread part 3

[mynamejeff420]

Mike Reilly and Ollofsson were good too in Minny.....

Not really, Reilly had worse defensive numbers than either one of Edmundson or Soucy in Minnesota (a trend that continued in Montreal and Ottawa) and Olofsson has been injured forever so we haven't really seen if his good defensive numbers in Minnesota would've translated to Montreal (since he only played 3 games with the Habs).

 

[mynamejeff420]

TSN was saying he will likely get 3M ish so not really much cheaper.

Even if he wasn't going to be that much cheaper, he's still a better player than Edmundson, so 3.5m for him is better than 3.5m for Edmundson.

 

[mynamejeff420]

Wrong on all accounts.

If you watched any players play you would not use stats to form your opinion.

Why is it bad to use stats to enhance my opinions of players I've watched play?

 

[DAChampion]

Why is it bad to use stats to enhance my opinions of players I've watched play?

Here's a metaphor.

James visited an elementary school in Netherlands. He found that the average height of the boys was 4'6.

John visited a high school in Japan. He found that the average height of the boys is 5'7.

Jack is a hockey fan who dabbles in "advanced stats". He finds out about what James and John did, and he concludes that people in Japan are taller than people in the Netherlands.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Never watched Soucy, so I don't know if he's good or not or if he's better than Edmundson or not. But I doubt he brings anything of significance more than Edmundson does. Edmundson also brings more experience.

 

[Zorba]

Here's a metaphor.

James visited an elementary school in Netherlands. He found that the average height of the boys was 4'6.

John visited a high school in Japan. He found that the average height of the boys is 5'7.

Jack is a hockey fan who dabbles in "advanced stats". He finds out about what James and John did, and he concludes that people in Japan are taller than people in the Netherlands.

Every one knows the Netherlands has the shortest people in the world.
Look at their speed skaters...

 

[mynamejeff420]

Here's a metaphor.

James visited an elementary school in Netherlands. He found that the average height of the boys was 4'6.

John visited a high school in Japan. He found that the average height of the boys is 5'7.

Jack is a hockey fan who dabbles in "advanced stats". He finds out about what James and John did, and he concludes that people in Japan are taller than people in the Netherlands.

Good thing we're comparing NHL players and not elementary schoolers and high schoolers.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Never watched Soucy, so I don't know if he's good or not or if he's better than Edmundson or not. But I doubt he brings anything of significance more than Edmundson does. Edmundson also brings more experience.

But, but, but his RAPD and his LMFAO/WAP are so much better than Edmundson's.....

 

[Habs Halifax]

After signing Domi,not much cap left to make an offer though.

Agreed. We added Allen and Edmundson so there is really no room. Without Domi, I think we have around $7.8M in cap room after Juulsen and Mete are signed. And lets face it... Bergevin loves to keep his depth on D.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Agreed. We added Allen and Edmundson so there is really no room. Without Domi, I think we have around $7.8M in cap room after Juulsen and Mete are signed. And lets face it... Bergevin loves to keep his depth on D.

We’re going after the big fish, cap isn’t an issue. With Weber, Petry, Chariot, Romanov, Edmundson, and Kulak, we are definitely moving some young defensemen. 2 of Mete/Fleury/Juulsen are being moved.

 

[angusyoung]

Agreed. We added Allen and Edmundson so there is really no room. Without Domi, I think we have around $7.8M in cap room after Juulsen and Mete are signed. And lets face it... Bergevin loves to keep his depth on D.

That's not much at all and Domi would eat a fair chunk of that. Wonder if habs offer Mete and NJ 2 way contracts,seems like they have the 6 starters planned already and no room for them.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We’re going after the big fish, cap isn’t an issue. With Weber, Petry, Chariot, Romanov, Edmundson, and Kulak, we are definitely moving some young defensemen. 2 of Mete/Fleury/Juulsen are being moved.

Habs will run with 8 guys on D, not 6.

If you go after a big fish, you have to move Byron and maybe Domi too.... depending on who you bring in. So easier said than done. Mete, Kulak, and Juulsen are just depth and don't chew up that much space. You need a 22/23 man roster, not 20

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's not much at all and Domi would eat a fair chunk of that. Wonder if habs offer Mete and NJ 2 way contracts,seems like they have the 6 starters planned already and no room for them.

I have Juulsen around $800K and Mete around $1M - $1.25M range. Both 2 year deals. Moving one of them won't clear that much space and if you think 22/23 man rosters, you will have to replace them so it's not a gain in space. Bergevin will want to run with 8 guys on D. Not 6

Byron is the guy that clears up a decent chunk. You can replace him with Poehling. Both Byron and Domi moved out? That's a 21 man roster with $11M in cap space (+/-). That would be still 8 guys on D. One big fish at $8M (for example), one guy around $1M and then $2M in space.

 

[angusyoung]

I have Juulsen around $800K and Mete around $1M - $1.25M range. Both 2 year deals. Moving one of them won't clear that much space and if you think 22/23 man rosters, you will have to replace them so it's not a gain in space. Bergevin will want to run with 8 guys on D. Not 6

Byron is the guy that clears up a decent chunk. You can replace him with Poehling. Both Byron and Domi moved out? That's a 21 man roster with $11M in cap space (+/-).

Byron would be one to move and Weal if possible,but that's still not enough to get some scoring with some oomph. If they could throw in Alzner somehow somewhere and eat some of his cap,at least that frees up a wee bit more. Still trying to wrap my head around signing Allen when they have some many tenders in the system and could find another for less.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Habs will run with 8 guys on D, not 6.

If you go after a big fish, you have to move Byron and maybe Domi too.... depending on who you bring in. So easier said than done. Mete, Kulak, and Juulsen are just depth and don't chew up that much space. You need a 22/23 man roster, not 20

One of Domi/Danault is gone. Mete likely too. We have guys on ELCs who can fill out the roster.

Lehkonen-KK-(Laine?)
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Drouin-Suzuki-Armia
Byron-Evans-Weal/Belzile/Poehling/VetMin

Chariot-Weber
Edmondson-Petry
Romanov-Fleury
Mere/Kulak/Juulsen/Folin/Oellete

Price
Allen

 

[Habs Halifax]

Byron would be one to move and Weal if possible,but that's still not enough to get some scoring with some oomph. If they could throw in Alzner somehow somewhere and eat some of his cap,at least that frees up a wee bit more. Still trying to wrap my head around signing Allen when they have some many tenders in the system and could find another for less.

I'm fine with Allen and Edmundson. Of course I'd love to bring in the big fish (Laine type) but lets face it... the probability is low. A guy like Rakell is a more realistic option we can pull off and still keep Domi. I'd be down with that

 

[Habs Halifax]

One of Domi/Danault is gone. Mete likely too. We have guys on ELCs who can fill out the roster.

Lehkonen-KK-(Laine?)
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Drouin-Suzuki-Armia
Byron-Evans-Weal/Belzile/Poehling/VetMin

Chariot-Weber
Edmondson-Petry
Romanov-Fleury
Mere/Kulak/Juulsen/Folin/Oellete

Price
Allen

How it looks without Domi and Mete and with a $8M winger. 22 man roster, not 23. No room for potential performance bonuses on Suzuki, Kotkanimi, Romanov and if they do reach target levels, we might have $2M - $4M range to defer to 21/22 which is a bad idea!

"I can Score" Who dat? .

IMO, if you add a big fish, you got to move Byron in a separate deal.

 

[DAChampion]

Good thing we're comparing NHL players and not elementary schoolers and high schoolers.

You missed the point.

In general you're coming off as a complete troll with your exaggerated misuse of not-remotely-advanced stats to push contrarians viewpoints.

If you just want to stick to stats, here's a second-year undergraduate concept that is more advanced than anything the so called advanced stats people use: The Bayesian Information Criterion. Colloquially translated it means that if you're looking at a hundred different stats you're bound to find one that supports your viewpoint, and you keep doing that. Another translation is that you can support any argument by applying a completely irrelevant model with a million parameters. In many of your posts you refer to untold numbers of stats, many of which you don't explain how they're defined, which means they have no value.

Circling back to your "points", no, Byron is not better than Joe Pavelski. You'll notice Pavelski just had 19 points in 27 playoff games, and he's always been a playoff warrior. That is something that is common among high-talent players that aren't necessarily regular season warriors - they can raise their scoring in the playoffs. Meanwhile Byron cannot. You'll notice that Phil Danault said that playing with Byron and Lehkonen was a nightmare situation offensively.

Which brings us to your Danault worship. No, the Habs are not better served by have ng Danault as a 1st line center. There's the obvious issue that he can't play on the power play, and the Habs were awful there this year. Trying to win games 2-1 is also completely useless when being behind 2-1 or 3-1 in the third period. But the actual issue is that it screws up the lineup, and having Danault on the third lineup contributes to the rest of the lineup playing badly, as it screws up the structure of the team. Having Suzuki on the first line would yield two separate improvements to the team: Suzuki would be a better 1st like center than Danault, and Danault would be a better third line center than Suzuki. Suzuki, like Pavelski, also has better playoff potential than Danault.

 

[le_sean]

Wrong on all accounts.

If you watched any players play you would not use stats to form your opinion.

We should bring back Tom Gilbert and Raphael Diaz.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Good thing we're comparing NHL players and not elementary schoolers and high schoolers.

Remember what was said about Chiarot? Don't you think it sounds the same about Edmundson? A good 4/5 guy? I know of Edmundson but have not watched him closely enough for a large sample size to know. Same with Chiarot. I bet you most don't know cause who watches middle of the line-up players from all teams?

You say you watched Edmundson and he sucks defensively? How much have you watched him, How many games a year?

 

[DAChampion]

But, but, but his RAPD and his LMFAO/WAP are so much better than Edmundson's.....

Edmundson is a good example of the "advanced" stats people ignoring context.

They will look up God knows which stats to argue that teams are bad when Edmundson is on the ice, ignoring the fact that part of the benefit of having Edmundson on the ice for 18 minutes a game is that the rest of the team will play better in the other 42 minutes.

Bergevin has explicitly said that Edmundson has been brought in to be Petry's partner. So just that there helps the team, as it pushes Romanov, Kulak, Mete, Juulsen, to the third pairing, where their relative effectiveness will be greater. It may also help the three younger guys better transition to the NHL . Whenever a team adds a player, it may get more benefit from other players being pushed down the depth chart than from the added player himself.

The other thing is that Edmundson is a good PKer, whereas the Habs are not good PKers. They were 19th in the league last year, that's bad. Having Edmundson play on the PK will improve the PK, improve the team, and improve the Habs at 5on5 and at 5on4 because the other D will be more rested.

Defensemen are not like forwards. There are only three defense pairings. That means that it's very, very hard for a team to carry a defender like Victor Mete who is a 5on5 specialist. Every defenseman needs to be able to contribute to either the PK, the PP, or both.

Bonus: Other players are less likely to ram into Price if Edmundson is on the ice.

 

[TopTenPlayz]

Do not compare the Rangers and Habs. NYR is able to attract big name UFA like Panarin. MTL: no.

Gallagher will get a big contract. If not in MTL, elsewhere for sure. Many, many teams are looking for players like Gally on their top-six.

I know man I know. The point is they were and still are freaking proactive in changing their team. What is Bergevin doing? Signing a bottom pair dman who will play on our 2nd pair because we suck ass at LD. Paying a backup goalie at 4.5M because our team sucks so bad that we also need an elite back up goalie. Now, signing Gallagher to be our highest paid forward and saying he doesn't to use his cap cuz he wants to re-sign others in the coming years. Re-sign who? Tatar, Domi, Drouin, Armia? They all f*****suck and are a dime a dozen players in the league. Can be replaced at any time. Other teams try hard to acquire elite talents, this guy always makes excuses of how hard it is to do so. That's bargainbin for ya.

Each team has different needs. If gally signs a big deal in Toronto, Pitts, Vancouver, or wherever, then let him do it. He'll be a good complimentary player to their top players. That's what he is; a complimentary player. The little guy got a big heart no doubt but his skillset is f****** limited. In no shape or form should he be the highest paid forward on any team. Definition of insanity is doing same shit over and over again and expect different results. This team keeps losing over and over and over because the offensive talent is not there and yet the donkey GM keeps doing the same thing over and over again and expect different results

 

[Sterling Archer]

Edmundson is a good example of the "advanced" stats people ignoring context.

They will look up God knows which stats to argue that teams are bad when Edmundson is on the ice, ignoring the fact that part of the benefit of having Edmundson on the ice for 18 minutes a game is that the rest of the team will play better in the other 42 minutes.

Bergevin has explicitly said that Edmundson has been brought in to be Petry's partner. So just that there helps the team, as it pushes Romanov, Kulak, Mete, Juulsen, to the third pairing, where their relative effectiveness will be greater. It may also help the three younger guys better transition to the NHL . Whenever a team adds a player, it may get more benefit from other players being pushed down the depth chart than from the added player himself.

The other thing is that Edmundson is a good PKer, whereas the Habs are not good PKers. They were 19th in the league last year, that's bad. Having Edmundson play on the PK will improve the PK, improve the team, and improve the Habs at 5on5 and at 5on4 because the other D will be more rested.

Defensemen are not like forwards. There are only three defense pairings. That means that it's very, very hard for a team to carry a defender like Victor Mete who is a 5on5 specialist. Every defenseman needs to be able to contribute to either the PK, the PP, or both.

Bonus: Other players are less likely to ram into Price if Edmundson is on the ice.

Habs had Weber, Chiarot and Petry to protect in the final minutes of a 1 goal game or on the PK. Adding a guy like Edmundson makes them much better than throwing in Kulak and Mete who couldn't box out a happy meal. He also makes going to the net much harder and helps stop the cycle. All major issues we had last year. For what we needed in that aspect of the game, he checks all the boxes. Now just hope Romanov can be a transitional force and be more of a PMD sooner than later and Norlinder makes the jump soon as well to address that lacking aspect of the Habs game. Posters shouldn't conflate the two and get pissed Edmundson isn't a PMD, he's not. He is what he is and he's very good at that.

 

[Habs Icing]

Here's a metaphor.

James visited an elementary school in Netherlands. He found that the average height of the boys was 4'6.

John visited a high school in Japan. He found that the average height of the boys is 5'7.

Jack is a hockey fan who dabbles in "advanced stats". He finds out about what James and John did, and he concludes that people in Japan are taller than people in the Netherlands.

C'mon, you rigged your example. You made Jack a moron. The most inept statistics student would know the dif between elementary and high school students. And I'm not a big fan of analytics.

 

[DAChampion]

C'mon, you rigged your example. You made Jack a moron. The most inept statistics student would know the dif between elementary and high school students. And I'm not a big fan of analytics.

Hyperbole is a legitimate narrative device. The point is that a lot of the analytics posters completely ignore context and selection effects.