Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VI

[mas0764]

All that implies is that these teams have two top line wingers that are better than him? So friggin' what? Who cares? All that would mean is that said team would have fantastic depth as they would have a top line player on the second line? Isn't that a good thing?

That still does not change the fact that yes he is a top liner.

I think maybe this is our problem here... I didn't deny he's a first liner. I'm not really sure what you are taking issue with that I'm saying frankly, I do not think we are that far apart.

He's a low-end first liner, yes. For a good team, he's more likely a second liner. I also said and as that article I posted demonstrates, on true contenders, he's a decent option on a second line... on some teams he'd be the third best overall winger, only a few he would be worse than the third overall winger (this relates to his overall quality but also how much you can afford to pay him).

That doesn't change many other things about his situation here though, namely that he is going to be surpassed quite soon by Lafreniere and already is behind Panarin at LW, and therefore out of the top 6, possibly as soon as the end of this season. And even if we move Panarin to the right side or something, and Kreider extends his time in the top 6 (ie, Lafreniere is LW1, Kreider is LW2, Panarin is RW1, Kakko is RW2), all of Panarin, Kakko and Lafreniere are due big, big money during the length of that Kreider contract.

Ok, isn't that what he is on the Rangers? If so, isn't that what you are arguing for? He is on the second line. That seems to me like fantastic depth. That seems to be what you are after. If so, then what is the debate about?

The debate is that if Kreider is staying at $6m a year, he will be doing so as an eventual third line winger at some point in the first half of his 7 year extension. Too many kids are GOING TO pass him, there is no point is saying "Well, who is it?" or otherwise denying it. We have too many top prospects inbound, and already we know that he is behind in importance Panarin, Kakko and Lafreniere. None of those three will be sacrificed for Kreider absent catastrophic failure. So if just one more player passes him - Kravtsov is an easy guess, for one, at some point in the next 2 years or so - Kreider is a third liner (another guess would be Chytil, should we draft or trade for another center, Chytil becomes a RW and also probably passes Kreider in the next 2-3 years). But at the same time, Kreider is not paid as a third liner. He's paid more in line with the top 5-6 contracts on the entire team for most of those contenders I cited. Not just top 5-6 winger contracts, but the entire top 5-6 player salaries, including goalies.

As a result, Kreider is going to be overpaid for his eventual role here, despite his quality (which is low end first liner on a lesser team, decent 2nd line option on a contender). He's great depth, yes, but for the guys we have to keep, he will end up being very, very expensive for us. Is that a problem? Yes. Is it the end of the world? No, not in a vacuum.

But it does mean you cannot afford Strome and Buch long term. If they were each locked up for four years on cheap contracts, great, keep 'em and let 'em be third liners all. But they aren't. Buch is going to be looking for Kreider money after his contract ends after next season. Strome is gonna want a similar commitment after potting nearly 70 points, before everyone figures out he's a Panarin beneficiary. They are going to strike while the iron is hot, and they are going to get substantial offers elsewhere on the market. But we can't afford to give Buch 4-6 years at $5m-$6m. Same for Strome. Think they are just gonna take 2 years deals at $3m again? I don't think so. Someone will offer more, and the Rangers should not match.

Given that Kreider is staying and he will eventually be a third liner with a low end first liner salary, and given that Strome and Buch are gonna price themselves beyond what the Rangers should pay within the next two offseasons (this one we are in now, and the next), they should be traded relatively soon (either trade Strome now or at the deadline if you can bring him back for another 1 year deal, Buch probably at the deadline as well, if you can't or won't put him in a package for a center or to move up in this draft). If you are intent on keeping Buch, then Kreider should not have been re-signed. Too many other young players gonna need contracts and extensions in the next 5-7 years.

If that means they have to be traded a little early and we are left with a temporary hole, so be it. That's the price of overpaying Kreider.

 

[mas0764]

To your point, I will be shocked if there aren’t “reaches” that disrupt the so-called consensus.

That happens every year. This year feels especially ripe for teams to do their own thing.

I can make a sound argument for two guys being the second pick.

I could point to another 10 players ranked between 4 and 14 who could each be the best of that particular bunch.

I could make an argument that the guy picked 35th is just as good as the guy picked 15th.

The guy picked 45th could better than the 10 guys picked prior.

It’s fairly wide open.

And hopefully that gives us an opening to move up for a player we love.

 

[NYRangers0723]

I think maybe this is our problem here... I didn't deny he's a first liner. I'm not really sure what you are taking issue with that I'm saying frankly, I do not think we are that far apart.

He's a low-end first liner, yes. For a good team, he's more likely a second liner. I also said and as that article I posted demonstrates, on true contenders, he's a decent option on a second line... on some teams he'd be the third best overall winger, only a few he would be worse than the third overall winger (this relates to his overall quality but also how much you can afford to pay him).

That doesn't change many other things about his situation here though, namely that he is going to be surpassed quite soon by Lafreniere and already is behind Panarin at LW, and therefore out of the top 6, possibly as soon as the end of this season. And even if we move Panarin to the right side or something, and Kreider extends his time in the top 6 (ie, Lafreniere is LW1, Kreider is LW2, Panarin is RW1, Kakko is RW2), all of Panarin, Kakko and Lafreniere are due big, big money during the length of that Kreider contract.



The debate is that if Kreider is staying at $6m a year, he will be doing so as an eventual third line winger at some point in the first half of his 7 year extension. Too many kids are GOING TO pass him, there is no point is saying "Well, who is it?" or otherwise denying it. We have too many top prospects inbound, and already we know that he is behind in importance Panarin, Kakko and Lafreniere. None of those three will be sacrificed for Kreider absent catastrophic failure. So if just one more player passes him - Kravtsov is an easy guess, for one, at some point in the next 2 years or so - Kreider is a third liner (another guess would be Chytil, should we draft or trade for another center, Chytil becomes a RW and also probably passes Kreider in the next 2-3 years). But at the same time, Kreider is not paid as a third liner. He's paid more in line with the top 5-6 contracts on the entire team for most of those contenders I cited. Not just top 5-6 winger contracts, but the entire top 5-6 player salaries, including goalies.

As a result, Kreider is going to be overpaid for his eventual role here, despite his quality (which is low end first liner on a lesser team, decent 2nd line option on a contender). He's great depth, yes, but for the guys we have to keep, he will end up being very, very expensive for us. Is that a problem? Yes. Is it the end of the world? No, not in a vacuum.

But it does mean you cannot afford Strome and Buch long term. If they were each locked up for four years on cheap contracts, great, keep 'em and let 'em be third liners all. But they aren't. Buch is going to be looking for Kreider money after his contract ends after next season. Strome is gonna want a similar commitment after potting nearly 70 points, before everyone figures out he's a Panarin beneficiary. They are going to strike while the iron is hot, and they are going to get substantial offers elsewhere on the market. But we can't afford to give Buch 4-6 years at $5m-$6m. Same for Strome. Think they are just gonna take 2 years deals at $3m again? I don't think so. Someone will offer more, and the Rangers should not match.

Given that Kreider is staying and he will eventually be a third liner with a low end first liner salary, and given that Strome and Buch are gonna price themselves beyond what the Rangers should pay within the next two offseasons (this one we are in now, and the next), they should be traded relatively soon (either trade Strome now or at the deadline if you can bring him back for another 1 year deal, Buch probably at the deadline as well, if you can't or won't put him in a package for a center or to move up in this draft). If you are intent on keeping Buch, then Kreider should not have been re-signed. Too many other young players gonna need contracts and extensions in the next 5-7 years.

If that means they have to be traded a little early and we are left with a temporary hole, so be it. That's the price of overpaying Kreider.

. I think think resigning Kreider was the right move. Despite what some say that contract isn’t bad. If they want to they can get out of it after his NMC ends after year 4

 

[mas0764]

. I think think resigning Kreider was the right move. Despite what some say that contract isn’t bad. If they want to they can get out of it after his NMC ends after year 4

The contract isn't terrible in a vacuum. It's bad for our circumstances I think.

 

[bbny]

Simplify it. To get 20th, need an ECF of Isles-Habs and a WCF of Van-Cgy/Dal. If none of these team make the conf finals, it is 24. For each one that does, it moves up 1 spot.

I can't bring myself to pull for the Isles just to move up 1 spot late in the first round.

 

[Rangers394]

I think the right move would have been to trade Kreider and get more assets back. Nobody expected to win 1st overall but it's too late now. Doubt we can trade him now

 

[TopShelf86]

I think the right move would have been to trade Kreider and get more assets back. Nobody expected to win 1st overall but it's too late now. Doubt we can trade him now

Right nobody thought it would actually happen.
Maybe experiment with him on the right of Zib

But then you have to trade Buch because then you have a Logjam at RW
Kakko needs top six minutes
And VK needs top 9 minutes...after his preseason get earned epit. They screwed him and it messed with his confidence. Let him develop on the 3rd line with Laf in the left and chytil centering. That's a good 3rd line. Idk maybe quinn can let them do that for more than 2 shifts?

 

[cwede]

I think the right move would have been to trade Kreider and get more assets back. Nobody expected to win 1st overall but it's too late now. Doubt we can trade him now

Glad Kreider's still here.
Not worried about which wings play where, it all works out when the games start

 

[Ola]

Watching the Dec 26 2019 game between Canada and the USA from the WJC. Haven’t seen it before. God I missed hockey, our short stint wasn’t enough. I love it. So exciting to watch Laf.

 

[NYRangers0723]

The contract isn't terrible in a vacuum. It's bad for our circumstances I think

.

. Agree to disagree

 

[TopShelf86]

Glad Kreider's still here.
Not worried about which wings play where, it all works out when the games start

Does it work out tho? Lol
Eventually someone hast to get traded because you're not gonna have kreider or laf on the 3rd line....maybe for the first couple months but eventually someone is gonna have to get moved/traded

Buch seems the odd man out. Especially if Kreider is moved over to RW
VK should get 3rd RW. He played so well during preseason to at least deserve big club time. Also during Covid Camp coach said he impressed so there's that too.

I watched his highlights during preseason on youtube. I'm no expert on talent but man can he pass and score. He always seems to find the open man. Watch out for him to shine.
I'm willing to let buch and fast go. Cant keep everybody, wish we could.

This is where it gets tricky in the rebuild.

 

[Ola]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Parker Ford? He is a kid who got the ability profile that fits to a T what we should be looking for at center in later rounds. Definitely think he could be a good option in the 3rd round if he lasts that long (I think he could).

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Parker Ford? He is a kid who got the ability profile that fits to a T what we should be looking for at center in later rounds. Definitely think he could be a good option in the 3rd round if he lasts that long (I think he could).

I prefer Brett Berard if we're targeting undersized forwards in the 3rd.

I think both are committed to Providence next year.

 

[eco's bones]

Does it work out tho? Lol
Eventually someone hast to get traded because you're not gonna have kreider or laf on the 3rd line....maybe for the first couple months but eventually someone is gonna have to get moved/traded

Buch seems the odd man out. Especially if Kreider is moved over to RW
VK should get 3rd RW. He played so well during preseason to at least deserve big club time. Also during Covid Camp coach said he impressed so there's that too.

I watched his highlights during preseason on youtube. I'm no expert on talent but man can he pass and score. He always seems to find the open man. Watch out for him to shine.
I'm willing to let buch and fast go. Cant keep everybody, wish we could.

This is where it gets tricky in the rebuild.

You lost me with Kravtsov and Buchnevich. Pavel has been making progress season to season--he's no longer a liability defensively and he's stronger and more physical. Vitali had a shit year last year--I don't think there's any other way of parsing it. Do I expect him to rebound? Yeah. Do I expect him to beat out Buch? No. I think one of the issues that Vitali has is an issue that Pavel had his first 2/3 years--he needs to put on a bit more weight and get stronger. It's partly maturation.

 

[TopShelf86]

You lost me with Kravtsov and Buchnevich. Pavel has been making progress season to season--he's no longer a liability defensively and he's stronger and more physical. Vitali had a shit year last year--I don't think there's any other way of parsing it. Do I expect him to rebound? Yeah. Do I expect him to beat out Buch? No. I think one of the issues that Vitali has is an issue that Pavel had his first 2/3 years--he needs to put on a bit more weight and get stronger. It's partly maturation.

I completely agree on him putting on weight. 100 % And I like Buch

But somethings gotta give. Who's it gonna be?
OR and I am in favor of this but it's not financially viable unless the stars align
But allowing Buch and Kreider to man the 3rd line with Chytil
That's a VERY expensive 3rd line but Oh that Depth could make this team absolutely lethal.
Only works if the money is right and with Stall, Smith, Hank eating 19mil plus 7mil of Deads space OUCH!

 

[Edge]

What is everyone’s thoughts on Parker Ford? He is a kid who got the ability profile that fits to a T what we should be looking for at center in later rounds. Definitely think he could be a good option in the 3rd round if he lasts that long (I think he could).

I like him, though I think he probably goes quite a bit later. (He was in quite a few of my sim drafts.)

He's an incredibly hard worker, but there are questions about the natural skill level. There's really no stand-out attribute that ranks above average, and quite a few that are average. But he gets every drop out of what he has. The challenge is going to be whether he can continue to out hustle the competion. The difference between him and someone like Finley for example is that Finley looks to have a lot of the attributes that make him easy to project into a bottom six role, and the size to make it work as a shutdown center. Likewise, someone like Valade has the wheels with the hustle to make you think he could serve in a Hagelin/Fast like role someday.

My guess is that he's a kid who starts coming in conversations closer to the fifth round as teams look for longer-term prospects who maybe grow into bottom six roles. If he makes it, it'll be smarts and hustle. He already seems to know he isn't going to be a guy who lights up the lamp at the higher levels and so that gives him a shot.

 

[eco's bones]

I completely agree on him putting on weight. 100 % And I like Buch

But somethings gotta give. Who's it gonna be?
OR and I am in favor of this but it's not financially viable unless the stars align
But allowing Buch and Kreider to man the 3rd line with Chytil
That's a VERY expensive 3rd line but Oh that Depth could make this team absolutely lethal.
Only works if the money is right and with Stall, Smith, Hank eating 19mil plus 7mil of Deads space OUCH!

He's an offensive player---6 goals and 15 points in 39 AHL games are not very good results for the talent he has. The AHL is a tough league to play in though. Most players even if they don't have a lot of skill can skate pretty well and check. He seemed to me too disappointed about his demotion to Hartford as in took it too hard--it also seemed to me that his expectations for playing in the play in might have been a little out of line. You get a job by earning it not by lobbying for it. Maybe there is something lost in the translation of my interpretation though.

He'll have to be able to take a hit--have to be defensively responsible at least to some degree--have to put up some stats to justify ice time. Kakko had some issue with some of this last year--we can't carry two players like that though.

 

[Ola]

I like him, though I think he probably goes quite a bit later. (He was in quite a few of my sim drafts.)

He's an incredibly hard worker, but there are questions about the natural skill level. There's really no stand-out attribute that ranks above average, and quite a few that are average. But he gets every drop out of what he has. The challenge is going to be whether he can continue to out hustle the competion. The difference between him and someone like Finley for example is that Finley looks to have a lot of the attributes that make him easy to project into a bottom six role, and the size to make it work as a shutdown center. Likewise, someone like Valade has the wheels with the hustle to make you think he could serve in a Hagelin/Fast like role someday.

My guess is that he's a kid who starts coming in conversations closer to the fifth round as teams look for longer-term prospects who maybe grow into bottom six roles. If he makes it, it'll be smarts and hustle. He already seems to know he isn't going to be a guy who lights up the lamp at the higher levels and so that gives him a shot.

His speed and engine is definitely an asset though. Think he could translate really well, kind of like Karson Kuhlman has for Boston, could be that he slips down towards the later rounds.

 

[bobbop]

Opposite direction, but Anaheim has #31 & #36.

I’ve made this trade for almost every mock I’ve done. I’m game if Anaheim is.

I don’t think the draft list that accompanies the draft sim is particularly accurate though. It really throws off the draft after the first 12-14 picks.

 

[The Sweetness]

Right nobody thought it would actually happen.
Maybe experiment with him on the right of Zib

But then you have to trade Buch because then you have a Logjam at RW
Kakko needs top six minutes
And VK needs top 9 minutes...after his preseason get earned epit. They screwed him and it messed with his confidence. Let him develop on the 3rd line with Laf in the left and chytil centering. That's a good 3rd line. Idk maybe quinn can let them do that for more than 2 shifts?

Kravtsov needs to play at a higher level in professional hockey for us to call him up. What he needs more than anything is playing time in a scoring role at a lower level than the NHL so he can get his confidence back and slowly develop.

He’s neither ready for the NHL nor would his development be best served by him playing in the NHL at this stage of his career.

 

[TopShelf86]

Kravtsov needs to play at a higher level in professional hockey for us to call him up. What he needs more than anything is playing time in a scoring role at a lower level than the NHL so he can get his confidence back and slowly develop.

He’s neither ready for the NHL nor would his development be best served by him playing in the NHL at this stage of his career.

Well hes back in the KHL for the time being so there's going to be more evaluation on him. Hopefully he plays well enough there then go straight to the Rangers.
Normally I'm pro-Hartford (like Kakko should've spent 2 or 3 months to get acclimated) but what I saw from him in last pre-season I was impressed. The way he finds the open man is elite. And he would've made the team but the depth chart worked against him. He would've gotten 4th line minutes.
So he did make the team they just thought it wasn't logical to play 6 minutes a night.
I dont think hes far at all and well be seeing him back soon enough hopefully

 

[eco's bones]

There is not likely going to be any AHL season if we can't get a handle on the pandemic and very quick. If the NHL starts next season in December in a bubble the AHL season IMO is pretty much dead in the water right there. The AHL covers many states and Canadian provinces--making it subject to the whims of wherever the virus is most prevalent. The AHL does not have the resources to play in a bubble (unless NHL owners provide a bubble for the AHL--which I think is pretty damn doubtful) and depends on gate, concessions and merchandising revenues.

For the NHL to play in the bubble though--NHL teams are going to need 35 players or so as call-ups etc. (keeping in mind that players entering the bubble will need to quarantine first so if a team doesn't have a reserve of players it will have to wait for the player(s) to pass the quarantine period)---so there may be players with the team who don't play very much or at all. Kravtsov IMO is either going to be in the KHL next year or he's going to be with the Rangers and if he's with the Rangers he's probably not going to play much.

 

[The Sweetness]

Well hes back in the KHL for the time being so there's going to be more evaluation on him. Hopefully he plays well enough there then go straight to the Rangers.
Normally I'm pro-Hartford (like Kakko should've spent 2 or 3 months to get acclimated) but what I saw from him in last pre-season I was impressed. The way he finds the open man is elite. And he would've made the team but the depth chart worked against him. He would've gotten 4th line minutes.
So he did make the team they just thought it wasn't logical to play 6 minutes a night.
I dont think hes far at all and well be seeing him back soon enough hopefully

I wish I was as optimistic with Kravtsov. If he was ready he’d have produced more than he did in the AHL. His improvement at the end of the year was a positive sign but he’s done nothing to show he has taken big enough strikes to be ready for the NHL.

I also disagree he’d done enough to make the team during the preseason.

Development and time on ice aside Kravtsov would be useless on the fourth line and he’s not a top-9 forward for us. He hasn’t shown he can be that productive yet and his possession play and compete level isn’t where it needs to be to make up for his not that impressive production.

 

[ecemleafs]

so if vegas, dallas, or the islanders make the conf finals, our carolina pick moves up depending on how many of them make it?

 

[Mac n Gs]

so if vegas, dallas, or the islanders make the conf finals, our carolina pick moves up depending on how many of them make it?

Here's the breakdown from a few days ago before the first round ended