Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VI

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Yeah I may be in the slight minority but I take Kakko/Lafreniere over Hughes/Byfield for two main reasons. Lafreniere is the best overall prospect of the 4 and Byfield is most likely to bust out of the 4.
 
With all 3 series that affect Canes' pick going to game 6's, here are the coin-flip(for each game) liklihoods for each outcome

21st. 14.06%
22nd. 51.56%
23rd. 29,69%
24th. 4.69%

just hope Dallas takes care of business and doesn’t screw us of another better draft pick position lol
albeit if St. Louis doesn’t beat Dallas last year the bruins probably win the cup in 2019. And I’m happy with Robertson.
 
I see Perrault is not on your list....hmmm....

I think he's right in that mix of guys in that 22-24 spot that I would consider.

At the end of the day, if you want the higher rewards with that pick, there's going to be some inherent risk. I don't find Perrault's risk to be any greater than some of the other names thrown out there.
 
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With all 3 series that affect Canes' pick going to game 6's, here are the coin-flip(for each game) liklihoods for each outcome
21st. 14.06%
22nd. 51.56%
23rd. 29,69%
24th. 4.69%

had a chance to detail it out for the curious

21Isles, Stars, Canucks3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/649/6421
22Isles, Stars, Vegas3/4 x 3/4 x 3/427/64
22Isles, Canucks, Avs3/4 x 1/4 x 1/43/6433/6422
22Stars, Canucks, Flyers3/4 x 1/4 x 1/43/64
23Isles, Vegas, Avs3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/64
23Stars, Vegas, Flyers3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/6419/6423
23Avs, Flyers, Canucks1/4 x 1/4 x 1/41/64
24Avs, Vegas, Flyers1/4 x 3/4 x 1/43/643/6424
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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'closer to a finished product' might be a better term than 'closer to ready' because it makes it easier to judge the potential. but I cringe at that term because I think many fans look at in terms of fantasy GM roster building of getting draft picks immediately into the lineup...and at 22 the odds of that pick stepping right in isn't that high.

there can by different opinions of what BPA means but to me it is the player that you believe will be the best NHLer in 5 years, that guy isn't always the better player at 18. and as discussed countless times, there are tiers where you have a group of guys projected to be similar players. within those tiers you can take into account factors like position, style fit, and readiness. but the odds of someone checking all of the boxes is unlikely...

if you project player A as a 2nd liner and player B as a 2nd liner but player A is a year away and player B will probably take much longer, than by all means take the more ready player. But if player A projects as a 2nd/3rd liner player and is ready now but Player B projects as a 1st line player but will take 3-4 years I'll gladly wait.

In addition to my inherent concerns about terms like "closer to ready" and "closer to finished" setting the bar too high, too soon, I also get concerned when people use them interchangeably.

To the first point, I always try to remind people that a kid who is closer to playing in the NHL, isn't going to come in playing like he's in the prime of his career. You'd think that's a given, but I also feel like it's easy to forget.

To the second point, I think there's a gap between "closer to ready" and "closer to finished". I know you aren't using them this way, but for others who are reading I think the latter term tends to apply to older prospects who are playing pro overseas and targeted to slide into a more clearly defined role in the NHL.

I say that only because if Lundell ends up as a Ranger, I think there may be people who see him coming in as third line center from day one of his North American career and more or less staying there for the next decade.
 
where does Kaiden Guhle project most realistically? is he a top 4 guy? and where would he rank compared to Miller, Robertson and Jones? (realizing they are different type of dmen)...

we need forward depth more...but reading scouting reports about his defensive prowess and potential shutdown ability, he kind of sounds like the perfect fit/compliment given the right side that we've built...and sounds like he projects to be the type of D man that we are now trying to fantasy trade for to get as partners for trouba & d'angelo

Guhle is a kid who could realistically go in the top 15 --- I think he's going to be a riser. I also believe it's quite possible we see 4 defensemen go in the top 15 (Sanderson, Drysdale, Guhle and Schneider).

I would put Guhle behind Miller, but ahead of Robertson and Jones based on his upside/the potential total package.
 
had a chance to detail it out for the curious

21Isles, Stars, Canucks3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/649/6421
22Isles, Stars, Vegas3/4 x 3/4 x 3/427/64
22Isles, Canucks, Avs3/4 x 1/4 x 1/43/6433/6422
22Stars, Canucks, Flyers3/4 x 1/4 x 1/43/64
23Isles, Vegas, Avs3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/64
23Stars, Vegas, Flyers3/4 x 3/4 x 1/49/6419/6423
23Avs, Flyers, Canucks1/4 x 1/4 x 1/41/64
24Avs, Vegas, Flyers1/4 x 3/4 x 1/43/643/6424
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Thank You for this. Right now it looks like 22 is most likely
 
Yeah I may be in the slight minority but I take Kakko/Lafreniere over Hughes/Byfield for two main reasons. Lafreniere is the best overall prospect of the 4 and Byfield is most likely to bust out of the 4.

Well, from a scouting standpoint, you aren't too far off.

Lafreniere is the consensus top pick this year, and generally seen to be the best player by a good margin as well.

Last year, I think Hughes was the choice of 60 percent of scouts, with Kakko being preferred by 30 percent, and around 10 percent feeling it was too close to call.

But Lafreniere is also seen as being better than both Hughes and Kakko. So if you're fantasy ranking, the top 3 of the last two drafts, it would probably look like this:

1. Lafreniere

2. Hughes
3. Kakko

4. Byfield
5. Stutzle
6. Dach
 
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I like Holloway more than most on this board, but I would definitely not put him in that category. He's going to need time, and ideally, structure.
Love the kid and think that he brings exactly the roster diversification that the starting line up needs. I doubt he would be there with the Carolina pick, but would be all over him.
 
Haven't done this in a while. Updated mocks....

2020 NHL Mock Draft & Simulator | Tankathon

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere (CAN)(6'1"/192lbs., Shot: Left, Rimouski/QMJHL)
1 (24) C: Mavrik Bourque (CAN)(5'10"/165lbs., Shot: Right, Shawinigan/QMJHL)

2020 NHL Mock Draft | 2020 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere (CAN)(6'1"/192lbs., Shot: Left, Rimouski/QMJHL)
1 (24) D: Kaiden Guhle (CAN)(6'3"/187lbs., Shot: Left, Prince Albert/WHL)

2020 NHL Mock Draft - NHL - DraftSite.com

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere (CAN)(6'1"/192lbs., Shot: Left, Rimouski/QMJHL)
1 (22) C: Mavrik Bourque (CAN)(5'10"/165lbs., Shot: Right, Shawinigan/QMJHL)
3 (72) D: Michael Benning (CAN)(5'10"/174lbs., Shot: Right, Sherwood Park/AJHL) *U. of Denver Commit, Status Uknown via Covid*
3 (90) C: Tyler Tullio (CAN)(5'9"/161lbs., Shot: Right, Oshawa/OHL)
4 (103) D: Donovan Sebrango (CAN)(6'0"/179lbs., Shot: Left, Kitchener/OHL)
5 (134) D: Kirill Steklov (RUS)(6'5"/190lbs., Shot: Left, London/OHL)
6 (165) C: Logan Barlage (CAN)(6'5"/205lbs., Shot: Right, Lethbridge/WHL) *Overage +1*
7 (194) D: Ryan Helliwell (CAN)(6'1"/176lbs., Shot: Left, Langley/BCHL) *U. of Notre Dame Commit, Status Unknown via Covid*
7 (196) RW: Zachary Okabe (CAN)(5'8"/170lbs., Shot: Right, St. Cloud State/NCAA) *Overage +1*
7 (204) RW: Reid Valade (CAN)(5'10"/168lbs., Shot: Right, Kitchener/OHL)

Doubt this is the class they draft, outside of Lafreniere. I just don't see the Rangers dipping into this many CHL/Canadian players. Don't like the Bourque pick, especially with Gunler, Peterka, Khusnutdinov, Mysak and others there. Benning is an okay gamble in the 3rd, but I don't expect much from him in pros unless his offensive game skyrockets in development. Tullio is a good pick in the 3rd. He battles hard and is pretty quick. Offense probably won't translate. Sebrango is also a good pick in the 4th. Has excellent stretch passing ability and a good defensive awareness. Underrated a bit. Pass on Steklov, however, I'd like to see what he can do in another year with London. Barlage is a decent overager, but nothing special. Similar to Gettinger. Helliwell was being talked about early as a top prospect and fell drastically. Think he could be a good option as an undrafted target, but I wouldn't draft him. Needs to show more enthusiasm on the ice. Pass on Okabe. Valade is interesting. Does things similar to Zary, but to a lesser extent. Could boom with time.

Thoughts?
Would not be able to take Bourque in any of those drafts with the players who seem to come after. And there is no way that Mysak drops to 30.
 
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I have been pretty gun-shy on Bourque because of the skating and the overall lack of pace, but I think his upside gets downplayed quite a bit. His vision, poise, hands and scoring touch are all top notch and I think he's better defensively than people give him credit for.

Ironically, I could see Ryan Strome being a realistic upside for him as a crafty middle six pivot who doesn't necessarily drive his line but can either be the facilitator or finisher for his line mates. He needs to learn to keep his feet moving though and you'd like to see him push into the middle of the ice more regularly.
 
i ordered @Steve Kournianos $5, 300+ page Draft Report for 2020
The 2020 NHL Draft Report is here! - The Draft Analyst

i don't always see what he sees, but great effort to compile
no one is perfect, in 2019 he overlooked Skinner and Edstrom, but did include Ciccolini
and foresaw Jones's strengths,
and in general it was great companion to draft watching,
and cross-referencing players as they catch your attention (like so many of these guys who you all call out here every day)
 
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Toronto, now drafting #15, screams defense. That changes up the middle of the first round. Could mean a run on Defenseman happens sooner rather than later.

I would think but I also could also see 3 d-men potentially going between the Winnipeg #10 Nashville #11 Florida #12 (and if Askarov isn't already taken) the Carolina #13 which would mean forwards would be falling like ten pins. This scenario works if Drysdale, Sanderson, Schneider, Guhle go early (Sanderson and Drysdale should do that anyway) and possibly say a Wallinder, Grans and/or O'Rourke go a lot earlier than expected. Some of these teams I think if they had their druthers would rather go D than C or LW/RW.
 
i ordered @Steve Kournianos $5, 300+ page Draft Report for 2020
The 2020 NHL Draft Report is here! - The Draft Analyst

i don't always see what he sees, but great effort to compile
no one is perfect, in 2019 he overlooked Skinner and Edstrom, but did include Ciccolini
and foresaw Jones's strengths,
and in general it was great companion to draft watching,
and cross-referencing players as they catch your attention (like so many guys you all call out here)

I think his write ups are super solid.

Rankings are what they are. Very hard to do. Very subjective. We won’t know the outcome of them in at least 10 years. And so forth.
 
Would not be able to take Bourque in any of those drafts with the players who seem to come after. And there is no way that Mysak drops to 30.

Not even commenting on whether or not I agree with the picks, but if we take 4 kids from the OHL and not even ONE European player, I will videotape myself eating one of my neckties and post it on HF Boards.
 
Not even commenting on whether or not I agree with the picks, but if we take 4 kids from the OHL and not even ONE European player, I will videotape myself eating one of my neckties and post it on HF Boards.
No idea if they will or won't, but think I am going to remember this one. Just in case of the need to call you out on it.
 
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Schenider to the Leafs seems like a lock.

Right handed, Defense first, Physically mature, close to ready. Picking for need is dumb but with the position they're in, they kind of have to.

Its going to be really hard to screw up the Carolina pick if they get it. I anticipate that the players I don't want will be gone by the time that pick comes up and there are a ton of "lesser" names that will turn out to be better players than a bunch of guys who are commonly ranked 15-31.

Would not be able to take Bourque in any of those drafts with the players who seem to come after. And there is no way that Mysak drops to 30.

McKenzie's list has him outside of the 1st round.

Doesn't mean he won't go in the 1st, but its a realistic possibility.
 
Are the Rangers the unluckiest lottery winners in history? Both years we need a center and we win the lottery to move into a spot where the consensus is a winger :laugh:

Swap the two, and you have Hughes and Byfield instead

Though I’m not sure that’s a better collection of talent overall.
I hear you (and I'm a huge fan of Byfield and would love to get him) but consensus is that Lafreniere is the best player of the four, while in 2019 Hughes and Kakko were neck and neck, so it is probably the better result. And lest we forget, we do have Mika.

Just need to do the work to find that 2C...
 
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