Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part V

[Edge]

Here is my question... and it is a serious one. Who is the guy (or two) that on the morning of October 9th, we have hyped through the roof as the person we should take with the Carolina pick, only to have the Rangers pass on him when he is available?

We've floated a lot of names so that might be difficult to pinpoint.

Perhaps the more interesting question is, who could the Rangers select with Carolina's pick that would get a tepid or even an unfavorable response from the board?

I'm thinking a defenseman --- Barron, Schneider, O'Rourke, or Wallinder.

Maybe guys like Zary, Smilanic, possibly even Holloway.

 

[NYblades]

We've floated a lot of names so that might be difficult to pinpoint.

Perhaps the more interesting question is, who could the Rangers select with Carolina's pick that would get a tepid or even an unfavorable response from the board?

I'm thinking a defenseman --- Barron, Schneider, O'Rourke, or Wallinder.

Maybe guys like Zary, Smilanic, possibly even Holloway.

Do you think JD might explore moving up some from the Carolina pick?

 

[Edge]

Do you think JD might explore moving up some from the Carolina pick?

If the Rangers keep it, and there's someone they really like on the board, I think that's definitely a possibility.

I think at least one of the third round picks would be in play, and/or a younger player.

 

[Joey Bones]

Here is my question... and it is a serious one. Who is the guy (or two) that on the morning of October 9th, we have hyped through the roof as the person we should take with the Carolina pick, only to have the Rangers pass on him when he is available?

Honestly, probably Khusnutdinov, but his projection I think will be weird by many teams....

Most rankings have him in the late 1st round, but because of his size and "pro" experience he could drop down to as low as the 3rd. Not by any means his fault, he actually deserves to go in the 1st round, but I think teams have had limited resources to evaluate players due to covid and there was no combine/playoffs. Seeing that a player like Leevi Aaltonen last year who kind of plays a similar style of hockey to Khusnutdinov (in a better league than the MHL) fell to the 5th round in a normal year was odd to see.

Now this is just speculation on my part, but I do think that this year (and especially next year) will have a lot of movement on final draft rankings and the slots that follow during the actual draft.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

We've floated a lot of names so that might be difficult to pinpoint.

Perhaps the more interesting question is, who could the Rangers select with Carolina's pick that would get a tepid or even an unfavorable response from the board?

I'm thinking a defenseman --- Barron, Schneider, O'Rourke, or Wallinder.

Maybe guys like Zary, Smilanic, possibly even Holloway.

I actually wouldn’t mind Schneider but am personally very against Zary. I would much prefer Khusnutdinov over anyone you listed at our range, honestly. Maybe that’s just me being biased towards a prospect I really like. Maybe Mavrik Bourque at our pick? I’ve liked his game too.

 

[Edge]

I actually wouldn’t mind Schneider but am personally very against Zary. I would much prefer Khusnutdinov over anyone you listed at our range, honestly. Maybe that’s just me being biased towards a prospect I really like. Maybe Mavrik Bourque at our pick? I’ve liked his game too.

I don't think Khusnutdinov is out of range for the Canes pick. I have him at 31, but honestly anyone from the mid-teens to the mid-30s is a possibility.

 

[Fugazy]

Who do you like more: Guhle or Schneider?

Definitely Guhle.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Maybe guys like Zary, Smilanic, possibly even Holloway.

This is an interesting one

I have him pegged in the second round, but if you like his upside do you take him in the 1st? Him being injured last season def hurt his stock a bit, but he's going to have time at Quinnipiac to work out his game

 

[Joey Bones]

Yeah, I kinda felt that was the wrong pick there. Anyhow if Pitlik actually dropped to the 3rd rd. I'd want him there. Could become a solid bottom-6 player.

I'm not so sure. I think depending on what NYR does with the second 1st round pick (or if they trade to get a center or trade back to get a 2nd round pick) I think I would want them to gamble with their 3rds. They previously have a good track record since the NHL changed the draft lottery in 2017, selecting Joey Keane and Zach Jones (Ragnarsson is looking like a miss). Someone like Nybeck fits that bill to a T.

But, yeah, not sure where I'd want them to go. It'll depend on what they could move/gain beforehand.

 

[True Blue]

I’m really getting acquainted with the idea of going with the boom potential of Perreault. That skill level is really hard for me to pass up:

The attitude makes him a hard no for me. That is also not the attitude that Gorton and Quinn have been staying away from.

 

[Edge]

Honestly, probably Khusnutdinov, but his projection I think will be weird by many teams....

Most rankings have him in the late 1st round, but because of his size and "pro" experience he could drop down to as low as the 3rd. Not by any means his fault, he actually deserves to go in the 1st round, but I think teams have had limited resources to evaluate players due to covid and there was no combine/playoffs. Seeing that a player like Leevi Aaltonen last year who kind of plays a similar style of hockey to Khusnutdinov (in a better league than the MHL) fell to the 5th round in a normal year was odd to see.

Now this is just speculation on my part, but I do think that this year (and especially next year) will have a lot of movement on final draft rankings and the slots that follow during the actual draft.

I think the draft is going to vary significantly from "rankings." Though, ironically enough, there's two schools of thought right now in the industry as to whether that happens or teams stick to the mainstream opinions.

One school of thought is that teams are going to have to do more guess work because of limitations and a shorter season. As such, they're going to rely a little more heavily on conventional wisdom and consensus. In other words, less gambles and reasonable reaches.

The other school of thought is that teams are going to be more comfortable with their picks because they will poured over hours and hours of additional footage, interviews, etc. As a result, they're going to go with "their guys" at a greater rate. In other words, get the guy you want and go home.

 

[True Blue]

What about Jan Mysak with the Carolina pick? One of the youngest prospects, Czech, a center (sounds like Chytil already), did very well during his half-year in the OHL.

Love him. He would be a great choice.

Who do you like more: Guhle or Schneider?

Schnieder in an easy hearbeat.

 

[Joey Bones]

Yeah, from my limited viewpoint, this is where this draft could be really strong, maybe especially early 2nd round but there could be some lag all the way into the 3rd round. First of all there is a lot of depth. Second of all, I do not for a second believe that all teams will be as prepared come draft day as they would have been if the season wasn't cut short. Kushnutdinov. Nybeck. Andrae. There are many really intriguing talents that could be available in that range.

If Gorton can turn Carolina's pick into a late 1st and a 2nd round pick, I definitely think he should consider it.

I would much rather Gorton use that pick to get a young center, personally. They have 10 picks in this class and I could see them grabbing some good falling talent throughout.

But I do think that said "depth" ends after the early 2nd and even then there are question marks.

 

[Justin17]

We've floated a lot of names so that might be difficult to pinpoint.

Perhaps the more interesting question is, who could the Rangers select with Carolina's pick that would get a tepid or even an unfavorable response from the board?

I'm thinking a defenseman --- Barron, Schneider, O'Rourke, or Wallinder.

Maybe guys like Zary, Smilanic, possibly even Holloway.

I don’t understand why people would be against players like Zary or Holloway. They may not have top line potential but I think they can be good 2nd or 3rd line players.

 

[Joey Bones]

And because others are posting their mocks, I just did one. Feel free to let me have it

‪1. Alexis Lafreniere, LW‬
‪24. Marat Khusnutdinov, C
‪72. Eamon Powell, RD
‪85. Joel Blomqvist, G
‪103. Oskar Magnusson, C
‪134. Blake Biondi, C
‪165. Carsen Richels, RW
‪196. Oliver Tarnstrom, C
‪197. Adam Wilsby, LD
‪206. Pavel Tyutnev, C/W

The first four picks are a work of art!! Perfecto!!

 

[Ola]

@Joey Bones Looking at some heavy guys like McKenzie who de facto reflects the opinion of many teams, I just think there is such an extreme tilt towards the CHL kids. From like early 10s all through the first round guys like Zion Nybeck, Emil Andrae, Kasper Simontaival, Luke Tuch and Marat Khusnutdinov and co are ranked way behind compareable CHL players.

Like Nybeck probably would have been Sweden's No 1 forward at the U18 WJCs and Khusnutdinov Russia's best forward (correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think Raymond, Holtz, Amirov and co are eligible. Kasper Simontaival would have been one of the top guys for the Finns, Andrae one of the top Ds for Sweden, if not the top D. Luke Tuch is not a bad player.

At the U18, we all know that Canada for example would have carried many forwards who just couldn't keep up at that level, and that there would be perfectly evenly matched games between Canda, Russia and Sweden for example.

But before these top guys among their peers are ranked in McKenzie's ranking, all of the following -- "second rate"?? -- forwards from the CHL are ranked:
Quinn
Mercer
Lapierre
Jarvis
Perreault
Zary
Grieg
Bourque
Foerester
Neighbours
Poirier
Weiseblatt

And of the European forwards ranked in like the top 45 or whatever, they are almost exclusively the guys that made an impression early on the big scene. Amirov played in the U18s last season. Lukas Reichel and JJ Peterka played at the U20 for Germany. Gunler has received a lot of attention for a long time in the SHL.

Late in the season we always see shuffle of the deck when players from different scenes are put on the same sheet of ice. Its not bias bias, its exposure bias. Don't get me wrong. But I think this discrepancy definitely is something that Gorton could take advantage of.

Who is the better player, Lapierre, Zary or Nybeck?

 

[Joey Bones]

I think the draft is going to vary significantly from "rankings." Though, ironically enough, there's two schools of thought right now in the industry as to whether that happens or teams stick to the mainstream opinions.

One school of thought is that teams are going to have to do more guess work because of limitations and a shorter season. As such, they're going to rely a little more heavily on conventional wisdom and consensus. In other words, less gambles and reasonable reaches.

The other school of thought is that teams are going to be more comfortable with their picks because they will poured over hours and hours of additional footage, interviews, etc. As a result, they're going to go with "their guys" at a greater rate. In other words, get the guy you want and go home.

Agreed, think it'll be a mixed bag. But I do think next season will be a harder one to bring upon a "consensus".

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Here is my question... and it is a serious one. Who is the guy (or two) that on the morning of October 9th, we have hyped through the roof as the person we should take with the Carolina pick, only to have the Rangers pass on him when he is available?

I’ve already decided my strategy for my hopes for that pick is to just read this thread, don’t look anywhere else, don’t get too into a single player, and then if they even keep the pick long enough to make it, take some time after it’s made to figure out how I feel about it

 

[Joey Bones]

I don’t understand why people would be against players like Zary or Holloway. They may not have top line potential but I think they can be good 2nd or 3rd line players.

Zary has a lot wrong with his skating, but plays the game very well otherwise. I do think at No. 20-24 it's a worthy gamble, but I think they should go after someone with more NHL styled frame.

Holloway is a player I think oozes a ton of potential, but just hasn't figured out the offense (or just had a mediocre season). I do think that his situation in Wisconsin stymied that a bit. But he's big, fast, can hit the body, be a pest and can still develop a top line offense to his arsenal. I think he is a definite possibility with their second pick. He could also still be a center at the pro level.

 

[Edge]

I don’t understand why people would be against players like Zary or Holloway. They may not have top line potential but I think they can be good 2nd or 3rd line players.

Holloway I think gets residual concern from when people feared he'd be the Rangers top pick. There are concerns from fans that he has a lot of tools but no tool box. I don't agree with that assessment, but I can see where it comes from.

Zary is a kid who has concerns because there are questions as to whether his game transitions to the pro level. He's in this weird zone where a greater number of people don't see him as a top six forward at this point, but he doesn't necessarily leap out at them as a bottom six player either.

And you're going to see quite a bit of debate about guys who fall into one of three categories in the late first round through the third round.

The first category is guys who seem to have a very clear path and potential role to play in the NHL, but aren't necessarily top-line options.

The second is guys who have top line skill, but have questions marks about that skill translating to the higher levels and concerns about whether they could be used in any other role.

The third is guys who have scattered skills, but no one really knows what their path forward looks like. They haven't carved out a clear identity yet. They could be a second line option in 4 years, or heading toward a career in the ECHL or overseas.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Here’s a draftsim I did. I traded down from 23 to get 31 and 36 and made a couple other late round trades as well.

 

[Edge]

Agreed, think it'll be a mixed bag. But I do think next season will be a harder one to bring upon a "consensus".

I think next year could resemble a lot of drafts from the early 90s.

Teams with stronger European connections could find more gems that aren't necessarily on the mainstream radar.

 

[Ghost of jas]

The attitude makes him a hard no for me. That is also not the attitude that Gorton and Quinn have been staying away from.

He’s the son of a former NHLer. The question is whether he’s coachable. I want another swing at boom potential.

 

[Ola]

In addition, I think you carefully must monitor and take into consideration what every single prospect has done from March up until the draft is held in October, and also what they will do after the draft is held.

You will have some kids that have practiced hard in team conditions continuously through the summer, played preseason games and basically started their seasons already. WHL is supposed to start playing games again when they can fill the arenas up to 50%, when is that? October? December? March? October 2021? Have these teams even met up? Are they having TCs right now? Or are the kids left to get by by themselves?

I don't think a few months lay-off is a big problem. But more than that? Could definitely have a tremendous impact.

 

[True Blue]

Holloway is a player I think oozes a ton of potential, but just hasn't figured out the offense (or just had a mediocre season). I do think that his situation in Wisconsin stymied that a bit. But he's big, fast, can hit the body, be a pest and can still develop a top line offense to his arsenal. I think he is a definite possibility with their second pick. He could also still be a center at the pro level.

Honestly, if Holloway was to turn into Kirk Matlby, I would take it and run.