2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part II

[Oscar Lindberg]

The odds on the draft are basically Rangers going from 13 and like 23 to like 10 and 15, possibly better if the Leafs and Canes are both eliminated in the play-in rounds. Not bad for giving up nothing and getting 3-5 games of playoff experience for the kids.

How do you get that? There's no way the team could have 10 and 15 like you say unless Carolina, Toronto and us all lose in the first round (which obviously can't happen haha)

If anything this system they came up with just allows us to have a shot at a top 3 pick potentially, but outside of that not much changes

 

[Joey Bones]

How do you get that? There's no way the team could have 10 and 15 like you say unless Carolina, Toronto and us all lose in the first round (which obviously can't happen haha)

If anything this system they came up with just allows us to have a shot at a top 3 pick potentially, but outside of that not much changes

I think he was trying to be optimistic and missed a few steps. This was very confusing to unravel, lolol.

 

[Thirty One]

Just simmed a lottery:
LA
Team F
OTT
DET
OTT
ANA
NJ
BUF
Team A
Team B
Team C
Team D
Team E
Team G
Team H

Exciting times! Byfield here we come!

 

[BKGooner]

How do you get that? There's no way the team could have 10 and 15 like you say unless Carolina, Toronto and us all lose in the first round (which obviously can't happen haha)

If anything this system they came up with just allows us to have a shot at a top 3 pick potentially, but outside of that not much changes

The odds of moving into the top 3 are really low and really don't improve much. We get our pick and the worst of the Carolina/Toronto Picks with the Toronto pick being top 3 protected. No pick can be worse than 16 unless one of the three teams goes on a long run, which is also not very likely. Our picks can improve slightly if a non NYR/TML/CAR play -in team goes on a long run. The Rangers net picks should be higher under this system than they would be under the regular means of distributing picks. I am thinking in terms of average draft position and net picks, not balls on accuracy. Have I still screwed the pooch?

 

[Thirty One]

The odds of moving into the top 3 are really low and really don't improve much. We get our pick and the worst of the Carolina/Toronto Picks with the Toronto pick being top 3 protected. No pick can be worse than 16 unless one of the three teams goes on a long run, which is also not very likely. Our picks can improve slightly if a non NYR/TML/CAR play -in team goes on a long run. The Rangers net picks should be higher under this system than they would be under the regular means of distributing picks. I am thinking in terms of average draft position and net picks, not balls on accuracy. Have I still screwed the pooch?

One of the picks will have to be from 16-31. Those picks are for teams in the 16-team playoffs and one of Carolina/NYR will be in.

 

[BKGooner]

One of the picks will have to be from 16-31. Those picks are for teams in the 16-team playoffs and one of Carolina/NYR will be in.

Agreed - I did miscount that one - which is embarrassing, it's only counting.

 

[Thirty One]

Agreed - I did miscount that one - which is embarrassing, it's only counting.

It happens.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

So theoretically now the Rangers are the only team that can win a top 3 pick and win the cup, assuming everything breaks their way

Rev up those engines @Thirty One

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

So theoretically now the Rangers are the only team that can win a top 3 pick and win the cup, assuming everything breaks their way

Rev up those engines @Thirty One

I would love to know the percentages haha. Although if we make a deep run. And Toronto and CAR are eliminated early, we can very well get a top-10 pick, as long as Toronto has the higher selection.

 

[bl02]

The second pick would have to be 16 or later, I think.

you are correct. my bad!
Only way we get that carolina/toronto pick is if we beat carolina which would push us out of the top 15 draft slots.
I guess hopefully the Jackets win and let the chips fall where they may regarding us/Carolina winning.
Also gotta figure 1-2 teams between 8-15 will upset a "favorite" in the play in round which would help our draft pick slotting

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Hes much more of a shooter.

Dude scores goals. If we stay at 13 we probably don't get the chance to pick him.

My stats driven ranking model has Quinn ahead of Rossi

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

My stats driven ranking model has Quinn ahead of Rossi

Mind sharing?

 

[bl02]

How do you get that? There's no way the team could have 10 and 15 like you say unless Carolina, Toronto and us all lose in the first round (which obviously can't happen haha)

If anything this system they came up with just allows us to have a shot at a top 3 pick potentially, but outside of that not much changes

I guess I'm being glass half full but if teams like Winnipeg/Minn/Chicago can pull off some "upsets" (I think Winnipeg can do some damage) We could potentially go from 13 to 10ish. That could could be big if things went well in terms of a guy like Lundell or Holtz dropping. Of course if that is we lose to carolina as well

 

[bl02]

So theoretically now the Rangers are the only team that can win a top 3 pick and win the cup, assuming everything breaks their way

Rev up those engines @Thirty One

Correct me if i'm wrong but only way that would happen is if both Carolina/Toronto moved up in the lottery right? Toronto would reacquire their pick and we would take the canes pick

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Correct me if i'm wrong but only way that would happen is if both Carolina/Toronto moved up in the lottery right? Toronto would reacquire their pick and we would take the canes pick

Yup that’s right

If both those pick move into the top 3, Toronto keeps theirs and we get Carolinas

 

[Edge]

It would be amusing as all hell to watch the reactions if we make a deep playoff run and then win the lottery.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Mind sharing?

It’s in the by the numbers forum, adjusting for size. It’s still really rough, taller guys need to be adjusted (need to start using a bell curve distro valuation to adjust for size better) and the model discounts D too much.

(Scoring rate(adjusted for league using NNHLe)*82)*(height-average ht((adjusted for now via log18)*(deviation from Ht/wt ratio of 100 being average.)

Greats like Crosby & Gretzky are in the low 30s, All stars are in the 20’s, 1st liners until about 15, 2nd liners from there to 5, bottom 6 are >5, replacement level players are a negative score.

For D, greats are in the 20s, 1D/PP1 are in the teens, 2-4D scale to zero, 3rd pair mildly negative

 

[bl02]

It would be amusing as all hell to watch the reactions if we make a deep playoff run and then win the lottery.

I'm sure the NHL took into account the .1 percent chance of that happening. I would be extremely happy with us going far and Jackets beating the Leafs. OR us losing against carolina then winning the lottery of course

 

[17futurecap]

Was it ever confirmed that we would get Carolina’s 2020 pick if both Toronto and Carolina picked top 3?

 

[bl02]

Hope for as many as 8-15 teams win lottery pick so phase 2 of the draft takes place. Then all of those teams would have 12.5 percent chance of winning a top 3 pick. those are decent odds.

 

[Tawnos]

Was it ever confirmed that we would get Carolina’s 2020 pick if both Toronto and Carolina picked top 3?

There's no mechanism for the pick the Rangers received from Carolina to move to next season, so if Carolina doesn't have Toronto's pick (due to Toronto winning the lottery), then by default we get Carolina's, wherever it slots.

I also just checked. The highest Toronto's pick can go without a lottery win is 11th, which wouldn't trigger the condition.

 

[bl02]

Was it ever confirmed that we would get Carolina’s 2020 pick if both Toronto and Carolina picked top 3?

Yep. If Toronto picks anywhere in the top 10 we would automatically get the Carolina pick. So if both won the lottery we would get the Carolina pick. Only negative is that would be insufferable to hear Leafs bragging about getting one of Laff/Stuz/Bye

 

[Tawnos]

By the way, the highest the Rangers pick can be, barring the lottery and if they lose in the qualifier, is 9th. It can't be 8th. That's because Calgary and Winnipeg play each other, but both teams were below the Rangers in the standings.

 

[nsvoyageurs]

Someone trying to explain the NHL Draft Lottery:

 

[Leetch3]

Someone trying to explain the NHL Draft Lottery:

I don't think that is right. the play-in teams all have the same odds....if one of the play-in teams wins the lottery than the losers will all be given a 1 in 8 chance to win.