2020 Draft - Pick #187 - Kienan Draper

[Killerjas]

The guy has earned the right to draft his son in the 7th round....

How many cups did he help us win? How long has he been in the org?

Seriously, just let the man have his proud father moment. It's unreal that people are upset at this.

Imagine thinking that staff can just throw away a pick to have a proud father moment when we had a historically bad season and need all the picks to get us out of the rebuild phase.

 

[kliq]

Hopefully Kienan can use all this hate as fuel, nobody believed in his Dad and nobody believes in him and look how that turned out for Kris. I wish the kid the best and hope he proves everyone wrong.

 

[SCD]

Yeah how dare you guys be annoyed with nepotism, wtf!

You guys argue about things as if you have been personally wronged by this social injustice with this draft pick. Frankly, there are a lot of people out there that would love to see Draper's kid succeed in this organization. And as a private company, they can do what they want even when you whine "nepotism." In the long run, you can choose to pay to watch them or not. You can *itch about this on the internet. It really doesn't effect when they again become competitive in this league.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

Imagine thinking that staff can just throw away a pick to have a proud father moment when we had a historically bad season and need all the picks to get us out of the rebuild phase.

Imagine thinking a 7th round pick will sway the course of our rebuild.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

This is one of the weirdest arguments I've seen. Congrats.

You're the king of hot takes, weird arguments and nonsensical opinions so coming from you I feel validated.

 

[Killerjas]

Imagine thinking a 7th round pick will sway the course of our rebuild.

I am not saying that they will sway the course, but they can have a huge impact. Just look at Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I am not saying that they will sway the course, but they can have a huge impact. Just look at Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Got any other examples? In the last 10 years you have Palat (2011) and Stone (2010) who have made a good impact. And maybe Olofsson (2014) and Kubalik (2013) could have impact but their sample size is small. Those aren't ZandD type of guys. With scouting the way it is you aren't getting Datsyuk's and Zetterberg's in the 6th and 7th rounds any more.

 

[SCD]

Got any other examples? In the last 10 years you have Palat (2011) and Stone (2010) who have made a good impact. And maybe Olofsson (2014) and Kubalik (2013) could have impact but their sample size is small. Those aren't ZandD type of guys. With scouting the way it is you aren't getting Datsyuk's and Zetterberg's in the 6th and 7th rounds any more.

I think with Covid, the next two drafts will have surprises because of limited play and scouting.

 

[Henkka]

Agree, 1% chance is better than 0% chance.

That's the thing. Without these 1% guys, on long run, you will become 97-98% contender. With those guys you'll become 100% contender.

And usually, even some mediocre low-round guy could be the replacement guy when you lose somebody else for cap purposes. Just like Tampa machine is working. Always a new guy jumping in when someone leaves. You need that depth drafting working continuously.

Another thing is to use them at trades. The extra incentive.

 

[DetroitRed]

I am not saying that they will sway the course, but they can have a huge impact. Just look at Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

It's possible, but it's not as possible now as it was back when Datsyuk and Zetterberg were drafted.

Detroit drafted those two from Sweden and Russia respectively at a time when not many NHL teams were scouting heavily outside of North America. In fact, I'm not even sure Detroit was scouting hard enough outside of North America back then. If Detroit was, then why did it wait until the late rounds to draft those two amazing players?

Nowadays, it seems like if someone pulls a star skater out of the second round, it's incredible.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I think with Covid, the next two drafts will have surprises because of limited play and scouting.

Totally possible but those 2 drafts will be anomalous due to current conditions. They won't be indicative of regular drafting patterns going forward.

 

[Pavels Dog]

That's the thing. Without these 1% guys, on long run, you will become 97-98% contender. With those guys you'll become 100% contender.

And usually, even some mediocre low-round guy could be the replacement guy when you lose somebody else for cap purposes. Just like Tampa machine is working. Always a new guy jumping in when someone leaves. You need that depth drafting working continuously.

Another thing is to use them at trades. The extra incentive.

And how often does Tampa hit on draft picks outside the top 2-3 rounds? Once every 10 years?

Yeah you need to find depth in the draft. And as long as we can do that with some success in the 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th rounds we are fine.

Anything you get in the draft beyond that is a bonus. Draper pick is gonna get criticised if he doesn't turn into a NHL (or at least something very close), which is just a dumb metric for such a late pick, no matter the name. Elfström, Kivenmäki, Tyuatyev, these guys won't be anything either. It is what is.

 

[Killerjas]

Got any other examples? In the last 10 years you have Palat (2011) and Stone (2010) who have made a good impact. And maybe Olofsson (2014) and Kubalik (2013) could have impact but their sample size is small. Those aren't ZandD type of guys. With scouting the way it is you aren't getting Datsyuk's and Zetterberg's in the 6th and 7th rounds any more.

Sure, this is from my list on page 5 of this thread Players drafted around Draper's position in the last 25 years, with some players from recent years. I know 25 years is a bit of a stretch, because scouting has changed a lot, but this shows that there is value in the 6th/7th round if you do your homework and swing for potential.

• Zetterberg
• Lundqvist
• Vrbata
• Pavelski
• Hornqvist
• Stralman
• Demers
• Haula
• Andersen
• Stone
• Dzingel
• Palat
• Kubalik
• Johnsson
• Olofsson
• Kase

 

[TCNorthstars]

Sure, this is from my list on page 5 of this thread Players drafted around Draper's position in the last 25 years, with some players from recent years. I know 25 years is a strength because scouting has changed a lot, but this shows that there is value in the 6th/7th round if you do your homework and swing for potential.

• Zetterberg
• Lundqvist
• Vrbata
• Pavelski
• Hornqvist
• Stralman
• Demers
• Haula
• Andersen
• Stone
• Dzingel
• Palat
• Kubalik
• Johnsson
• Olofsson
• Kase

And which of those are on the Zetterberg level? And within the last 10 years?

 

[Killerjas]

And how often does Tampa hit on draft picks outside the top 2-3 rounds? Once every 10 years?

Yeah you need to find depth in the draft. And as long as we can do that with some success in the 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th rounds we are fine.

Anything you get in the draft beyond that is a bonus. Draper pick is gonna get criticised if he doesn't turn into a NHL (or at least something very close), which is just a dumb metric for such a late pick, no matter the name. Elfström, Kivenmäki, Tyuatyev, these guys won't be anything either. It is what is.

Elfstrom, I agree. Kivenmaki and Tyutyayev? They show some potential. Kivenmaki is playing on the 1st line in Finland and doing really well. Tyutyayev is a top 10 player in the Belarussian league. Boom or bust players which I like when drafting in the later rounds.

 

[Killerjas]

And which of those are on the Zetterberg level? And within the last 10 years?

None of them come close, but that is not the point I am making. I believe that you should go for high risk-high reward players in the later rounds. You have to do your homework and my point is that there are always gems in the later rounds, you just have to go for high skill players with some upside and hope you get lucky. If they do not succeed, fine, it's a 7th round pick.

Draper does not look like a high skill player with much upside, therefore I would have not made a pick and rather go for more skilled players such as Pashin, Ekmark, Magnusson in 2020)

 

[Pavels Dog]

Elfstrom, I agree. Kivenmaki and Tyutyayev? They show some potential. Kivenmaki is playing on the 1st line in Finland and doing really well. Tyutyayev is a top 10 player in the Belarussian league. Boom or bust players which I like when drafting in the later rounds.

The target for some players is pretty small. Boom/bust make it sound like it's a 50/50 chance. When in reality for those late picks it's probably 1%/99%. Meaning we could draft a 100 guys like that until finding one star.
Draper may not be a "boom" pick, but maybe he's got a slightly higher potential to carve out a small role on an NHL team one day, as a 4th liner. So a lower ceiling but maybe 5% chance to make the NHL?

Either way you're looking at longshots, and either way you can't judge these late picks after just 1-2 years. Give it 4-5 years..

 

[HoweFan]

He’s a Red Wing. No negatives. I’m cheering for him

 

[Retire91]

I really feel like these arguments are bouncing off of each other.

7th round pick whatevs - yes you are right to a dgree
7th round picks are still important - yes you are right to a degree
Nepotism is bad - there is some pretty widely accepted evedince that this is true
Organizational connectedness and family is important - yes this is also true to a degree.

People are acting like I am bent out of shape pounding on my keyboard over this pick. Its not even close to being true. Its like picking green or red peppers at the store. What does it matter but there literally might be a property of the green prepper that goes better with the recipie but if you use the red pepper whatevs.

Imagine a fan being emotionally invested enough in their team to call out a stupid move when they see it no matter how large or small and I think this argument becomes a little more clear. Outside of that this is just a bunch of people not hearing each other.

 

[Hen Kolland]

None of them come close, but that is not the point I am making. I believe that you should go for high risk-high reward players in the later rounds. You have to do your homework and my point is that there are always gems in the later rounds, you just have to go for high skill players with some upside and hope you get lucky. If they do not succeed, fine, it's a 7th round pick.

Draper does not look like a high skill player with much upside, therefore I would have not made a pick and rather go for more skilled players such as Pashin, Ekmark, Magnusson in 2020)

This debate can certainly be had, but let's look at the profile of the players you listed. 5'7 154, 5'9 159, 5'10 165. What you are looking at is literally boom or bust, with a very, very high likelihood of busting. We aren't talking about a Jack Hughes or a Lucas Raymond or a Mitch Marner. You're talking about players who are supposedly built on some combo of speed and skill, but their speed and skill is so far below the level of a top flight prospect that their size comes into play and they are 7th round or undrafted candidates.

Quite frankly, if they don't grow significantly, they never sniff the NHL because they don't have anything that translates to the NHL level. The logic of someone like Kienan Draper is that you already have someone with a pro style frame and a NCAA route for a long development path. He may never make the NHL, but he has honestly a better chance of developing into a checking line forward than some of the names you have thrown out have to even make the jump to North America. Does that move the needle at all in a rebuild? Not in the slightest, but good teams also shouldn't rely on the longest of long shots to somehow save a rebuild. If Draper can follow the development path of Chase Pearson, you call it a win and move on with life.

 

[lhsgolf19]

I love how some think Nepotism is bad now... Where are all of those people ripping the organization when we drafted Tyler in the 2nd Round when people thought you could get him several rounds later?

Let's wait and see how he develops

 

[TCNorthstars]

I love how some think Nepotism is bad now... Where are all of those people ripping the organization when we drafted Tyler in the 2nd Round when people thought you could get him several rounds later?

Let's wait and see how he develops

I don't really see the Bertuzzi thing as nepotism. Todd was just a player not a decision maker. Todd didn't draft Tyler and had no input on the draft position of his nephew. Kris was directly involved in the drafting of his son.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I really feel like these arguments are bouncing off of each other.

7th round pick whatevs - yes you are right to a dgree
7th round picks are still important - yes you are right to a degree
Nepotism is bad - there is some pretty widely accepted evedince that this is true
Organizational connectedness and family is important - yes this is also true to a degree.

People are acting like I am bent out of shape pounding on my keyboard over this pick. Its not even close to being true. Its like picking green or red peppers at the store. What does it matter but there literally might be a property of the green prepper that goes better with the recipie but if you use the red pepper whatevs.

Imagine a fan being emotionally invested enough in their team to call out a stupid move when they see it no matter how large or small and I think this argument becomes a little more clear. Outside of that this is just a bunch of people not hearing each other.

But you’re not calling it out for being a stupid pick on merits. You’re saying “Kienan Draper is Kris’s son and therefore was only drafted because of that name”

Maybe he was drafted because in the games he had they liked his tenacity and thought they saw young Kris in him.

Wasn’t Drapes not exactly a highly scouted guy? Didn’t the Wings pick him up for $1 waiver draft fee?

You can raise questions about the move... that is fine. However, that’s not what people against it have been doing here.

It is “Kienan Draper nepotism pick!!” Blargh, they wasted a 7th round pick on a guy they could have just invited.

You’re more emotionally invested into the team than those people who have their literal livelihood wrapped up into it. More power to you, but that doesn’t make your opinion any more or less valid than theirs. To the Wings, Kienan Draper is worth a 7th round pick. Until or unless someone drafted after him does something worthy of praise, it’s the right move.

 

[MBH]

Hopefully Kienan can use all this hate as fuel, nobody believed in his Dad and nobody believes in him and look how that turned out for Kris. I wish the kid the best and hope he proves everyone wrong.

Yeah. People hate Kienan.
Good Lord.

Nobody hates him.
I wish the kid the best too. I'd love for him to prove everyone wrong.
That's what you always want for your seventh round picks.

First thing I did when he was drafted was read the scouting reports.
Did nothing to convince me any of the "magical thinking" I see on the first two pages of this thread have a shot.

 

[MBH]

I love how some think Nepotism is bad now... Where are all of those people ripping the organization when we drafted Tyler in the 2nd Round when people thought you could get him several rounds later?

Let's wait and see how he develops

Todd Bertuzzi wasn't in management or the head of amateur scouting.
He was a player.