2019 Draft Talk

[ChiHawks10]

It’s a valid point and I don’t disagree. Like I said, this team has wasted an inordinate amount of 2nd rounders and that is why I don’t see their prediction abilities as being so good with skaters that should stick with that. Hopefully they improve their hit rate on 2nd rounders and I may change my opinion.

Look at their 2nd rounders the past 3 or 4 years.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Look at their 2nd rounders the past 3 or 4 years.

I like what they’ve been doing lately and think the drafting has improved dramatically from what it was. We’ll still need to see that work out at the NHL level though. I feel good about it though.

 

[ClydeLee]

If anyone is discouraging a goalie being drafted its Gravel with his strong season. Peters really foundered fast and maybe still in radar to develop in Finland but should be pretty much an after thought now. So the team has 1 legit goalie prospect under 24 by the next draft.

Nobody 24 or so like Delia, lanknein, or Nalimov should be used as a statement of let them see what they have. By the time any 18-19 year old goalie you draft could develop to be ready you may be steps beyond who those other goalie prospects are.

 

[echlfreak]

I think Pyotr Kocheykpv may be the best goalie in the draft ...gotta be careful about Pence Knight cause he plays for Team USA USNTDP with Hughes et AL. .That us a loaded squad like an alk-star team...No other goalie rated high in the goalie rankings plays for such a loaded squad of talent in front of him..Thus mist nights they have the puck in the other end ...would get a better handle on Kinight's ability if he just played on a normal junior team that does not have so many first and second round talent playing in front of him. Maybe a good junior team would have 2-4 guys selected in the first 2 rounds.....not 10 or more like Team USA u-18s .. So Really one could overestimate Knight's ability just by looking at his GAA or save% ...he plays on such a talented team..Not like he saves the day every game with 40 save performances. .Be careful.

Remember I Ettinger. ..big star with USA u-18s and at WJHC..no so great in the NCAA ...

Oettinger has 2.39 GAA and a .930 SV% this season. Man that's struggling

 

[hawksfan50]

But while Oettinger is tied for 4th in save% this year ...there are 6 other goalies all within close range to him at .926 or above ..and scoring g is quite low overall I'm the NCAA compared to the NHL ..so I do not think he is that "special"...in addition hebisconly 14-13-4 which ich is just above Ebven in wins .. so he is hardly a big "difference-maker" because goaltending is 70% of winning..If hexwee that special he single handedly would be winning more games this season ..in other words given hi.930 save % he should probably have had more shut-outs than he has (3) ora lower GAA (he ranks 31st ..

Now if you told me he was .930 AND top 5 maybe even top ten in GAA then I would concede he could be special.

Even if goalies play for average teams which Boston is this season. ..teams without much offense...if they are special with high save% then they have to value above expectation for wins given the poor offense ..He does not cut Above that "soecial" expectation line given the circumstances. .the great ones would find a way to have a lower GAA to win more games despite lack of offense.He is not above expectation given the circumstances of his team but rather just at an average expectation for wins in the circumstances of the average team he plays for this season. HE NEEDS to rise above expected result ..meaning a much higher save%and lowec GAA. And more shut-outs to be considered that special.

He is not bad ..but the WINS he does not have this year which instead are losses prove my point. ..he plays for just a normal mid-pack average team not a Powerhouse stacked team like when he had so many wins for the USNTDP back in his Junio days.


Thus is the precise reason I warn against Spencer Knight ...put him on an avrage Jr. Squad and he will not post case many easy wins or win totals .

IN ANY case I do not think Knight goes top 20...maybe a late forstcroubdervor early 3nd. IF he were that special scouts would be talking him up to the degree Carey Price was .

 

[ColdSteel2]

/\

High GAA and high SV% is a positive indicator of talent. A goalie with a 3.00 GAA and 930 SV% for example indicates a great goalie getting shelled night after night and still consistently making saves. If that same goalie had a 1.50 GAA, that tells us he isn’t facing many shots and the ones he does probably aren’t quality chances due to a great defense in front of him.

 

[AmericanDream]

"IN ANY case I do not think Knight goes top 20...maybe a late forstcroubdervor early 3nd. IF he were that special scouts would be talking him up to the degree Carey Price was ."

I don't know what some of that is from Fiddy as usual, but yes, he is being talked about almost as highly as Price was, even higher than Gibson was. Most scouts are calling him the best goalie prospect they have seen since Price- better than Gibson and Hart.

I am sure a team will take him in the 1st round, a number of teams have multiple 1sts...

 

[AmericanDream]

I am sure not many posters in here really would say this would be reality at this point-

BUT....

Andrei Svechnikov - through 65 games has 15 goals and 14 assists -29 points

and on the other hand...

Brady Tkachuk - through 55 games has 14 goals and 18 assists - 32 points

Brady has more points in 10 less games....

you just can't judge a book by it's cover when it comes to NCAA stats...

 

[ColdSteel2]

I am sure not many posters in here really would say this would be reality at this point-

BUT....

Andrei Svechnikov - through 65 games has 15 goals and 14 assists -29 points

and on the other hand...

Brady Tkachuk - through 55 games has 14 goals and 18 assists - 32 points

Brady has more points in 10 less games....

you just can't judge a book by it's cover when it comes to NCAA stats...

Brady Tkachuk is better than I thought he was and his poor stats definitely made me underestimate him.

 

[AmericanDream]

Brady Tkachuk is better than I thought he was and his poor stats definitely made me underestimate him.

and this doesn't mean I feel Tkachuk will be the better player long term, Svech has plenty of time to be that stud...but pretty telling that an offensive weapon that went #2 overall on a pretty decent team has less points in more games than this ugly mutt does. I remember the constant arguments on here over Brady, though people never said he wouldn't be a NHLer, but that he just doesn't have the offensive upside as many others picked in that top 10. I think that myth has been buried.

Now I wasn't high on Kotkaniemi for his draft and still think he never reaches the level of a #3 ov pick, but I was wrong with him as he has been solid in his first NHL season after a rough month to start the season. Both have been pleasant surprises in an otherwise pretty pedestrian rookie class.

 

[ColdSteel2]

and this doesn't mean I feel Tkachuk will be the better player long term, Svech has plenty of time to be that stud...but pretty telling that an offensive weapon that went #2 overall on a pretty decent team has less points in more games than this ugly mutt does. I remember the constant arguments on here over Brady, though people never said he wouldn't be a NHLer, but that he just doesn't have the offensive upside as many others picked in that top 10. I think that myth has been buried.

Now I wasn't high on Kotkaniemi for his draft and still think he never reaches the level of a #3 ov pick, but I was wrong with him as he has been solid in his first NHL season after a rough month to start the season. Both have been pleasant surprises in an otherwise pretty pedestrian rookie class.

What do you think about Quinn Hughes? One of the most hyped prospects I’ve seen on HF that wasn’t picked top 5. He and Eeli Tolvanen get a lot of love on here.

 

[G0AT]

Officially back on the Lose for Hughes train.

 

[piteus]

Draft anyone who'll make our defense better PLEASE.

 

[AmericanDream]

What do you think about Quinn Hughes? One of the most hyped prospects I’ve seen on HF that wasn’t picked top 5. He and Eeli Tolvanen get a lot of love on here.

Hughes is legit. He has some concerns/issues that Gus has, but that comes with the territory for skilled PMDs. He carries the puck a bit too much, tries to force things at times, but when he dangles and creates space for his teammates it is something else to see. I think we see Hughes turn pro once Michigan is done, hopefully that gives him a few games up with the Nucks to see what he can do, but he is fun as shit to watch play. I would bet he plays with team USA this year at the World Championships, hopefully Kaner wants to captain that team again this year!

 

[hawksfan50]

He may go in round one in the 20same ...I doubt he goes before that.

It should be noted that Yes Knight has superior numbers in GAA and save% than what Oettinger posted for the Team USA u-18s of tge USNTDP backk in his draft year ..but I do not think I Oettinger had as deep and talented a dominating squad of talent playing in front of him as Knight has with this version of the team..they simply dominate thevoposituon most games and they usually have shot advantages of 2 ti 3 tines asmany as the opposition can muster against them. .It us no wonder Knight's stats look so good ...especially in that GAA ...
Now against better than average opposition...like the better teams at the u-18s or u-20s at iihf Championships,their domination margin is not as big and so there you will see if Knight is really that special or not ..do not count the gamesin the preliminary rounds against dome weaker teams ..butconlyvguagevin the key games vs. The better hockey nations and in theboresdure-cooker of elimination Knock-out quater-finals..serni-finals and finals.

I am not saying that if magically Hawks get a 2nd first rounder via trade we should not take a goalie ...just that you need extra caution with Spencer Knight because his numbers are artificially boosted by how greatxaxteam of talent he has in front of him. .

My gut fed king is that Pyoter Kochetkin may be the better goalie choice ..He won all 3 of his games vs. WHL OHL and QMJHL squads in the Canada-Russia Super Series ..this was like playing against teams of stacked talent from the 3 CHL leagues..This is akin to a Team USA u-20 squad taking on itself ..because in effect Team Russia for that series was basically an all-star squad (abeit missing a few of its stars back in Russia...so not even the best u-20 selects it could muster) playing against all-star teams from the 3 CHL leagues ...to get to this calibre of contest you would need a Team USA i-18 not playing JUST a single USHL squad (some would be top USHL teams others mid-pack..so bottom feeders of the USHL) ...but RATHER they would need to play against the best USHL all-star squad you could assemble ...a much HIGHER level of opposition than just a single USHL team could put out. .

In short Knight's stats are probably over-rated because who he plays for and the level he plays against normally are NOT the best indicators to judge his stats on.

You need an eye-test and result against a much better level of competition.

Kochetkin passed my eye test against us h a high competition level in that Super Series..yes. small sample. .but he liked great ..and he was a big reason Russia won the 3 games he played in that Series. .He passed my test.

I do not think Spencer Knight has passed it's test ...yet.

So I say..be somewhat cautious in a session how good he is.

Scouts are wrong on goalies more than other positions. .so just because you read somewhere that some scouts think Knight might be that special goalie that only cones around once in awhile, I say take that with a grain of salt.

He plays for a very special group of loaded talent that he would not get on merely a single team in any league...especially if it were not even near the top of the standing of e that league...And he needs to prove it vs. Better competion..such as the better national teams at u-18s and u-20s championships.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I hope Knight pans out wherever he goes. I have visions of the Hawks taking the ice at UC home games to “Enter Sandman” with Spencer Knight leading the team onto the ice.

 

[TheDachKnight]

Knight won't be there in the 2nd round but Jones could be!

COHEN: Who gets picked first, Hunter Jones or Spencer Knight?

I like Hunter Jones too but I’ve seen him go in the 3rd in some mock drafts. I see him quite a bit lower than Knight, who I think is the rare elite goalie prospect. Jones has a high upside as well but Knight is both the safer prospect (at least as safe as goalies are concerned) and higher upside prospect. If we traded Anisimov for a late 2nd/early 3rd and got Jones there, I’d be happy with that. But I don’t want to pass on one of the high upside forwards for Jones. For Knight, I’d be on board with taking him with a late 1st if we were to trade for him. I also don’t think he’s there by out 2nd but have seen him mock drafted to our pick in the 2nd. I liked Oettinger a lot too but I think Knight is the better prospect.

 

[TheDachKnight]

Also passing on Knight because you have a maybe in Delia and a bunch of iffy goalie prospects is just silly. If you take a goalie in the late 1st/early 2nd with the kind of potential that Knight has, the idea is that he’s your future starter 5 years from now. Could be sooner than that but this would absolutely be a long term pick. This is something I’m in favor of if you get an elite potential forward/defensemen with your likely top-10 pick and then either added a late 1st in a trade or he fell to your 2nd. If someone takes him mid-1st, you move along as planned going forward for your 1st 2 picks. Something like Turcotte with our 1st and then Grewe with our 2nd if he’s there would be ideal in that situation.

 

[AmericanDream]

Also passing on Knight because you have a maybe in Delia and a bunch of iffy goalie prospects is just silly. If you take a goalie in the late 1st/early 2nd with the kind of potential that Knight has, the idea is that he’s your future starter 5 years from now. Could be sooner than that but this would absolutely be a long term pick. This is something I’m in favor of if you get an elite potential forward/defensemen with your likely top-10 pick and then either added a late 1st in a trade or he fell to your 2nd. If someone takes him mid-1st, you move along as planned going forward for your 1st 2 picks. Something like Turcotte with our 1st and then Grewe with our 2nd if he’s there would be ideal in that situation.

I think his trajectory would nearly be identical to Gibson's. Two years of college/junior - turn pro in your 3rd year post draft - make the team or not, but AHL likely for most of that year, so bottom line my estimation would put Knight 3 years away from this season before we would see him as a legit possibility for our team...if you view him as a superstar, you easily wait for that as most of the "regular" top picks are at least 2-3 years out as well.

I am just saying 3 years to get here, not be a starter/whatever.. I would have a hard time passing on him if you think he is equal to Gibson as there is no reason to think he will differ much from John Gibson's path to the NHL.

if you can package our 2nd with Forsling/Sikura/whatever and move up into maybe 29-31 range, and he is still there Hawks should seriously consider it.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Delia recalled on emergency basis. Shut Crawford down and its full steam ahead with operation lose a lot for Turcotte

 

[TheDachKnight]

I think his trajectory would nearly be identical to Gibson's. Two years of college/junior - turn pro in your 3rd year post draft - make the team or not, but AHL likely for most of that year, so bottom line my estimation would put Knight 3 years away from this season before we would see him as a legit possibility for our team...if you view him as a superstar, you easily wait for that as most of the "regular" top picks are at least 2-3 years out as well.

I am just saying 3 years to get here, not be a starter/whatever.. I would have a hard time passing on him if you think he is equal to Gibson as there is no reason to think he will differ much from John Gibson's path to the NHL.

if you can package our 2nd with Forsling/Sikura/whatever and move up into maybe 29-31 range, and he is still there Hawks should seriously consider it.

Didn’t Gibson become the starter his 3rd year pro? That would put him in line with the 5-year timeline I have for Knight. I think that’s a very good comp for Knight although I personally think Knight has an even higher ceiling. I would definitely be down for a trade up like that or even just simply our 2nd and a 3rd next year to trade up and get Knight. Unfortunately, I could see some team in the teens take him. Colorado if their pick is outside the top-10 and the Ottawa pick is top-2 would be the team I’d keep an eye on there. Getting Hughes/Kakko allows them to take a chance that Knight is the elite goalie that he has the potential to be.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Pretty amazing how similar to Gibson he looks.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I am sure not many posters in here really would say this would be reality at this point-

BUT....

Andrei Svechnikov - through 65 games has 15 goals and 14 assists -29 points

and on the other hand...

Brady Tkachuk - through 55 games has 14 goals and 18 assists - 32 points

Brady has more points in 10 less games....

you just can't judge a book by it's cover when it comes to NCAA stats...

Admittedly haven't watched more than 2-3 Sens or Canes games, but man...those are still pretty disappointing stat lines for the 2nd and 4th overall picks. Are they just not getting much ice time?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Vasilevsky and M. Subban were the last two goalies taken in the 1st round FWIW

 

[Kevin Musto]

Vasilevsky and M. Subban were the last two goalies taken in the 1st round FWIW

Jake Oettinger