WJC: 2018 Division I, II, III
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SoundAndFury
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- May 28, 2012
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Since the D1B is the first one to start I will go out on a limb a bit and will say Italy is going down. Their roster really seems rather unimpressive while Lithuania has some legitimate fire power at this level.
Estonia would be a real dark horse team in D2A with Arrak and Kozyrev but the later is not even on entry list which is a real shame.
Estonia would be a real dark horse team in D2A with Arrak and Kozyrev but the later is not even on entry list which is a real shame.
Britain will likely get promoted as hosts. Lithuania, Ukraine and Italy will probably battle for relegation. Probably Norway or Slovenia as hosts to go up. Austria, Hungary and Kazakhstan to battle for relegation. Germany, France and Latvia to battle for promotion, I like Germany cause they have top prospect Bokk on their team.
SoundAndFury
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Ukraine and Kazakhstan won't be close to being relegated, they have a really good teams this year.
Don't see France being remotely close to Germany or Latvia either. Historically, they have played in D1B more times than they did in D1A so "Texier factor" probably saves them from relegation but they are finishing 3rd at best. And that's if they are really lucky.
Don't see France being remotely close to Germany or Latvia either. Historically, they have played in D1B more times than they did in D1A so "Texier factor" probably saves them from relegation but they are finishing 3rd at best. And that's if they are really lucky.
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Maybe, though I'm not sure where you have all the roster info.
Well hosts tend to play well and France are hosting, so they should finish top 3 at least.
SoundAndFury
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Entry lists are on IIHF webpage. Eliteprospects have some of the confirmed rosters as well. Also this is U20 tournament meaning the best players have been on the radar for at least 2 years now.
Yes ok, I've seen them now.
Why do you say Lithuania are so good, I don't see much there? Ukraine have Merezhko, is he why you don't think they will be poor? Italy actually look nice. Kazah's don't have anyone who stands out.
Well only if you follow the Lithuanian and other lower leagues league, which most people do not.
SoundAndFury
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Well I am Lithuanian so I probably have a lot more interest in this level than most people do
I'm not saying Lithuanians are very good. In fact, they are not great, as expected. But at the same time, Italy really doesn't have anything going for it this year other than kind of decent defense. We, on the other hand, have Kaleinikovas who is legitimate star at this level and Bogdziul who is still an NAHL player, albeit struggling. Also our forward depth is excellent in general, we have beaten Slovenia in friendly game as well. All those are positives. So basically I expect star power to get us a win against unspectacular Italy.
Edit: One more thing to note, Italy has only 5 19 year-olds on their roster. Just once again proving '98 generation really isn't the best one for Italian hockey.
Ukraine has a lot of good players and a lot of them play together for either Donabass or Kremenchyuk against men. They also have Merezhko, Deniskin - again, guys, who are clearly above this level. Also I've seen most of them play in friendly tournament in Klaipeda a month ago and this is team is above Italy and Lithuania. Unless they screw up.
Kazakhs have the guy who is yet to miss a game for a strong mid-table team in the KHL. Saying they don't have anyone who stands out is like damn dude.. Don't make yourself look bad like that. Their defense is excellent in general and they have pretty nice forward top-6 as well made of MHL scorers. France, meanwhile, other than Texier, have 2-3 guys who could play at the MHL level. Almost all the guys who lead Kazakhstan last year are returning meanwhile France are without Maia, Ville, Gallet this year.. Texier hype train kinda takes attention away from it but those are elite talents by France's standards.
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Well I am Lithuanian so I probably have a lot more interest in this level than most people do
I'm not saying Lithuanians are very good. In fact, they are not great, as expected. But at the same time, Italy really doesn't have anything going for it this year other than kind of decent defense. We, on the other hand, have Kaleinikovas who is legitimate star at this level and Bogdziul who is still an NAHL player, albeit struggling. Also our forward depth is excellent in general, we have beaten Slovenia in friendly game as well. All those are positives. So basically I expect star power to get us a win against unspectacular Italy.
Ukraine has a lot of good players and a lot of them play together for either Donabass or Kremenchyuk against men. They also have Merezhko, Deniskin - again, guys, who are clearly above this level. Also I've seen most of them play in friendly tournament in Klaipeda a month ago and this is team is clearly above Italy and Ukraine. Unless they screw up.
Kazakhs have the guy who is yet to miss a game for a strong mid-table team in the KHL. Saying they don't have anyone who stands out is like damn dude.. Don't make yourself look bad like that. Their defense is excellent in general and they have pretty nice forward top-6 as well made of MHL scorers.
France, meanwhile, other than Texier, have 2-3 guys who could play at the MHL level.
Italy have players playing in good leagues, Lith. have a couple, but not as many.
Ukraine are above Ukraine?
A couple guys have played some games for Barys, yes.
Well France have other guys playing in the Swiss league too, and one in the Swedish league, plus they are hosts and hosts tend to play well no matter what their team looks like.
SoundAndFury
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Who are those Italian guys in good leagues you have in mind? Other than Gios who fits that description.
I meant Lithuania, pardon it's 6AM here.
Again, I think there is a difference between "has played some games" and "is a regular for Barys". Polokhov has appeared in every game this season before leaving to NT, has played for Kazakhstan NT at men's level and is clearly one of 3 best Ds in the tournament. Probably, the best D in the tournament at this moment (Gawanke is more than a year younger, after all). I'd say that stands out.
Regarding France, sure, Guebey is great and a future NT player undoubtedly. There are a few other good players as well but they are few. I'm not saying they have no chance against Kazakhstan but, in my opinion, Kazakhstan is better this year.
Also the "one in the Swedish league" is flat out bad. You can play in Sweden and not be very good, you know. Especially since he isn't even playing in SuperElit. Just for the future reference, any guy who is 19 and hasn't ever played for France U20 before most likely isn't very good since the good ones debut at 16 or 17 in it. Especially considering the guy we are talking about was born in January.
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For Italy Cordiano plays in Swiss league, Defrancesco plays in Germany, Deluca in Swiss, Kasslatter in Swiss, Kosmac in Sweden, Spinell in Swiss, Spornberger in Germany, Topatigh in Austria, Trivellato in Germany and maybe you consider Pfostl playing in what you said is the NAHL but is now the EHL I think.
By some games I meant what you said, ok.
I don't know if Louis Petit is that bad, 5 goals and 7 points in 14 games in the top Swedish junior league.
SoundAndFury
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Well Swiss junior league isn't great. I should know, its top scorer last year was Lithuanian. Same with Austria, Lukas Vashco is 16 and he is over PPG in the EBYSL. Same with Germany. Those aren't countries with especially strong junior development systems. They are ok but they are nothing to write home about. Pfostl played in NA3HL which is long, long ways away from playing in the actual NAHL. Again, Dominykas Bogdziulis scored close to 3 PPG there last year and he is struggling to score anything in the NAHL.
So I think that illustrates quite well - Italians really are very close in overall quality to Lithuania. It's just about the guys who will be able to make the difference.
SuperElit is top Swedish junior league. J20 - the league Petit plays in - is where everybody else plays, pretty much. Again, there is a guy Lukas Zukauskas on Lithuanian roster who scored 1,5 PPG in it last year and he is nothing special even by Lithuanian standards. Not to mention France plays a whole division higher.
All these countries leagues are better than Lithuania though, which is what we are talking about, heck, even the Italian junior league is better than Lith. Pfostl now plays in the EHL.
Well Petit is 19 this year, maybe he didn't make the team last year cause he was 18, if you say so though. The French junior league is higher?
SoundAndFury
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I don't know what are you talking about anymore, to be honest. I thought we were comparing teams that will take part in the championship and not the local leagues that are completely irrelevant. Lithuania has literally 0 players from Lithuanian league as they all either play abroad or for Energija which plays in Belarus. Even Lithuanian midget teams play in Latvian competitions so your arguments makes zero sense. You are honestly making zero sense at this point.
And obviously French junior isn't higher but again, we aren't comparing the leagues, we are comparing players. Good player who stayed in France will be at men's level at this point already (as Pascal, Suire, Leroux, etc. are). You can stay in France and be good (Texier got drafted from France after all) and you can leave to Sweden and still be bad. The goal is to have the best players, not to have the players from countries that are the best at hockey.
And obviously French junior isn't higher but again, we aren't comparing the leagues, we are comparing players. Good player who stayed in France will be at men's level at this point already (as Pascal, Suire, Leroux, etc. are). You can stay in France and be good (Texier got drafted from France after all) and you can leave to Sweden and still be bad. The goal is to have the best players, not to have the players from countries that are the best at hockey.
Before you said that development was relevant, now it's not, ok, well if most of Lith. players play abroad, then that means they are terrible at developing. Also there are some players on the team who play at home, surprised you don't know that.
@SoundAndFury you're right but I personally think you're being unnecessarily condescending.
What league a player plays in does allow you to generally ballpark where they are skillwise, of course it's far from an exact science. However, in order to do that you need to be generally aware of the pertinent leagues and their power rankings. This is my rough 10 minute guide, the finer details can be debated.
Farmteams: Allsvenskan, VHL, WSM Liga, NLB, DEL2, AlpsHL, Mestis, Erste Liga.
U20: Jr. A SM-Liiga, MHL, SuperElit, Czech U20, Elite Jr. A, EBYSL, DNL
U18: J18 Allsvenskan, Jr. B SM Sarja, Czech U18, Elite Novizen, EBJL
There are more leagues. Some are weird to classify like the DNL, a U19 league, or the Elite Novizen, a U17 league. Lower tier Finnish, Swedish, Swiss, Czech etc leagues are usually pretty irrelevant with usually pretty irrelevant players, at least at the D1A or D1B levels, exceptions exist.
Louis Petit, who plays in the 2nd tier Swedish U20 league, has not played a meaningful role so far in any of France's lineups or games. The NAHL by the way is around the same level of competitiveness as the Swedish SuperElit, I would say just a hair under but significantly more physical...
So in the Swedish J18 leagues there are many clubs because it is regionally organized. However, the best of those clubs make a spring round called the J18 Allsvenskan. Those clubs are the swedish clubs with some level of clout. A player can play J18 elit and be predictably poor, but to make a J18 Allsvenskan squad takes quite a bit of skill.
The Austrian U20 and German U19 leagues aren't great. Austria's U20 team I believe has no active participants in its U20 league, and Germany's U20 team is similar in this regard.
The Italian roster is not bad, but beware. Firstly, the Swiss U20 league is not incredibly competitive, at least in comparison to the D1A. It has produced some good talent for sure , but it's a league generally dominated by 16, 17 and some 18 year olds. Also beware because the Italians who are in the league, unlike the Latvians, are generally so as a result of geographic scouting rather than performance. That team will mostly be run by the AlpsHL guys but Spinell and Deluca are very good, as is one guy you missed Gergorio Gios. Probably not good enough to mount a promotion campaign, but nothing is impossible.
If I had to guess, France finishes 4th behind Kazakhstan, Germany, and Latvia. You correctly identified that Bougro and Guebey will play significant roles for them. However, bringing too many Elite A guys who don't have defining positive characteristics to the D1A is bringing a knife to a gunfight. That's why they left Devouassoux and Benoist behind, and never considered Valente.
What league a player plays in does allow you to generally ballpark where they are skillwise, of course it's far from an exact science. However, in order to do that you need to be generally aware of the pertinent leagues and their power rankings. This is my rough 10 minute guide, the finer details can be debated.
Farmteams: Allsvenskan, VHL, WSM Liga, NLB, DEL2, AlpsHL, Mestis, Erste Liga.
U20: Jr. A SM-Liiga, MHL, SuperElit, Czech U20, Elite Jr. A, EBYSL, DNL
U18: J18 Allsvenskan, Jr. B SM Sarja, Czech U18, Elite Novizen, EBJL
There are more leagues. Some are weird to classify like the DNL, a U19 league, or the Elite Novizen, a U17 league. Lower tier Finnish, Swedish, Swiss, Czech etc leagues are usually pretty irrelevant with usually pretty irrelevant players, at least at the D1A or D1B levels, exceptions exist.
Louis Petit, who plays in the 2nd tier Swedish U20 league, has not played a meaningful role so far in any of France's lineups or games. The NAHL by the way is around the same level of competitiveness as the Swedish SuperElit, I would say just a hair under but significantly more physical...
So in the Swedish J18 leagues there are many clubs because it is regionally organized. However, the best of those clubs make a spring round called the J18 Allsvenskan. Those clubs are the swedish clubs with some level of clout. A player can play J18 elit and be predictably poor, but to make a J18 Allsvenskan squad takes quite a bit of skill.
The Austrian U20 and German U19 leagues aren't great. Austria's U20 team I believe has no active participants in its U20 league, and Germany's U20 team is similar in this regard.
The Italian roster is not bad, but beware. Firstly, the Swiss U20 league is not incredibly competitive, at least in comparison to the D1A. It has produced some good talent for sure , but it's a league generally dominated by 16, 17 and some 18 year olds. Also beware because the Italians who are in the league, unlike the Latvians, are generally so as a result of geographic scouting rather than performance. That team will mostly be run by the AlpsHL guys but Spinell and Deluca are very good, as is one guy you missed Gergorio Gios. Probably not good enough to mount a promotion campaign, but nothing is impossible.
If I had to guess, France finishes 4th behind Kazakhstan, Germany, and Latvia. You correctly identified that Bougro and Guebey will play significant roles for them. However, bringing too many Elite A guys who don't have defining positive characteristics to the D1A is bringing a knife to a gunfight. That's why they left Devouassoux and Benoist behind, and never considered Valente.
SoundAndFury
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I try not to be I just fail.
Yes, I guess you could say we are terrible at development, to the extent. You could say the same about most little hockey countries. Nobody was ever denying that and at the same time, this has nothing to do with the competition we are talking about.
Regarding players who play at home, they are on the entry list, not on the team. I doubt any of them step on the ice at any point of the competition.
Our camp is often the same way. It's to promote club diversity, so players from each region can make the nationalteam. Unfortunately it also seems to promote diversity of competence levels at times.
Italy is underrated, but I can't see them getting relegated or promoted though. Likewise with Poland, Norway is going win the group, they've been developing better players lately and have MEP on the roster. I think Ukraine is probably going to go down and then get promoted next year.
I can see Germany be the favourites for promotion in the D1A. Additionally, interested in what happens with France, who's been on a upward bound the last couple of years. Turkey who miraculously got out of DIII from a relative short time since they considered hockey a legit sport. D2A is going to be super intriguing to see from a neutral perspective, I can't really see a favourite and then the group has Japan, Korea, and GB who have all semi-strong hockey nations.
I can see Germany be the favourites for promotion in the D1A. Additionally, interested in what happens with France, who's been on a upward bound the last couple of years. Turkey who miraculously got out of DIII from a relative short time since they considered hockey a legit sport. D2A is going to be super intriguing to see from a neutral perspective, I can't really see a favourite and then the group has Japan, Korea, and GB who have all semi-strong hockey nations.
Kiraly
Registered User
Very interesting group. I would add Romania as a dark horse to the three you mentioned. The '98 group appears to be stronger than last years team and Szilard Rokaly is having an impressive season in the Hungarian Liga - highest scoring junior by quite a margin.
Kiraly
Registered User
Hungary defeated Norway 6 to 2 in a preparation match this week. They also defeated France (sans Texier) last month 3 to 2. That said, Hungary seems to struggle when they reach the 1A level, whether it is U20 or U18. Don't expect that to change this year as the team is quite young - only 7 1998 born players on the roster. Expect them to be relegated this year and be favoured again for promotion next year.
Devouassoux and Benoist are on the EL, they did not leave them behind according to it.
