Prospect Info: 2017 NHL Draft Part I

[Zippy316]

Ironically I was going to say that in my post: Saving grace might be the Flyers 3 times where they might get 3/6 points.

For the record, I don't think it is likely the Yotes catch the Devs, but I do disagree with people talking as if it has a minuscule chance of occurring. Last week I gave the Yotes a 10% chance of catching the Devs in a post on this board. Now I'm thinking 20-25%. Arbitrarily.

I'm just saying the Coyotes are a bad team.

Devils have to be historical levels of bad or the Coyotes have to play above what they're on pace for this season for it to happen.

I'm highly skeptical either one happens.

 

[FooteBahl]

I'm just saying the Coyotes are a bad team.

Devils have to be historical levels of bad or the Coyotes have to play above what they're on pace for this season for it to happen.

I'm highly skeptical either one happens.

The coyotes have a game at hand and play Colorado tonight. If they win, we're only 4 pts ahead of them. I'd say it's 50/50 right now they catch us.

 

[Edmonton East]

Since I pulled the data, I looked at the team's point % by month under Hynes just for kicks. Going to add avg opponent strength and post in the "stats" thread.

October: 61%
November: 54%
December: 45%
January: 54%
February: 48%
March: 36%
April: 25% (only 4 games so far)

Note roughly 59% is what you need for playoff pace.

 

[Zippy316]

The coyotes have a game at hand and play Colorado tonight. If they win, we're only 4 pts ahead of them. I'd say it's 50/50 right now they catch us.

I'd say it's 50/50 if we were an 8th place team and they were a 9th place team in similar point positions.

But the thing is the Coyotes and us are both bad teams that struggle to get points. I'd say there's probably a 10-15% chance they pass us right now maybe, just maybe flirting with 25% if they beat Colorado tonight.

 

[Edmonton East]

Since I pulled the data, I looked at the team's point % by month under Hynes just for kicks. Going to add avg opponent strength and post in the "stats" thread.

October: 61% 56.3%
November: 54% 53.6%
December: 45% 58.5%
January: 54% 55.7%
February: 48% 58.3%
March: 36% 57.9%
April: 25% (only 4 games so far) 52.4%

Note roughly 59% is what you need for playoff pace, assuming 97pts-ish is the cutoff. This varies from year to year though, obviously. Was only 56.7% last year because of Detroit

Actually just added avg opponent win % above in red. Stats thread looks dead and I didn't want the figures taken out of context.

Additionally, our wins during the Hynes era have come against teams with an average weighted point % of 54.35%. The losses against 58.3%.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Who would have figured our final game against Detroit could be huge.

 

[Brodeur]

Who would have figured our final game against Detroit could be huge. ��

Funny, I didn't even think about it like that. But depending on the lottery, I could see Detroit preferring a different guy (namely Liljegren) than us anyways.

Reminds me of what happened with the Kings in 2006-07. They finished the season with the Coyotes. The Kings entered the game with 66 points while the Coyotes had 65. Kopitar scored in the final minute of regulation to win the game. Phoenix wrapped up their schedule the next day with a win. Had the Kings/Coyotes game gone to OT, they would have swapped draft slots.

Coyotes got slotted #3 while the Kings were #4. That year there was a clear cut top 3 (Kane-Turris-JVR). Kings brass wanted a D and ended up reaching for Thomas Hickey at #4. Maybe things would have been different had they ended up at #3? Albeit, they possibly would have just traded down a few spots.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I like that the last game at the Joe features these two teams. Two powerhouses from the 90s and 2000s.

 

[Brodeur]

Draft lottery will be April 29th: http://www.tsn.ca/talent/addition-of-golden-knights-curbs-appeal-of-tanking-1.695461

Despite that, Devils general manager Ray Shero swears his team isn’t tanking. It has just been an ugly run in New Jersey.

“It’s important for us to continue to be a competitive hockey team,” Shero said last week. “It’s the evolution of this hockey team. We want both competitive hockey players and people working for us. That’s the direction we have to go.

“We have some talented players coming, but we need more.”

The Devils happen to be plummeting in the standings at the best possible time, dropping 10 straight games (0-8-2) since Feb. 19. New Jersey has been shut out three times in that span, outscored by a 33-19 margin, and dropped back-to-back games last weekend to Arizona and Colorado – the only two teams below them in the standings.

As a result, the Devils have slid from 22nd to 28th place – more than doubling their odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft lottery from 4.5 per cent to 10.3 per cent.

The 2017 NHL Draft Lottery will take place on April 29.

 

[NJDevs26]

You know you're pretty bad when you have to deny you're tanking

 

[Jersey Fresh]

No idea where I got the idea that Vegas was going to have the fourth best odds, not third. Weak.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

No idea where I got the idea that Vegas was going to have the fourth best odds, not third. Weak.

They have the SAME odds as the team that finishes 3rd worst, which at this point would be us. I believe its 10.3% of picking #1.

 

[R8Devs]

If there's a god devils will get hischier lol

 

[Jersey Fresh]

They have the SAME odds as the team that finishes 3rd worst, which at this point would be us. I believe its 10.3% of picking #1.

You're right, I read the article wrong.

I'm terrible at math, but if those are our odds to pick first, what are our odds to pick top 3?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You're right, I read the article wrong.

I'm terrible at math, but if those are our odds to pick first, what are our odds to pick top 3?

30.7%

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Funny, I didn't even think about it like that. But depending on the lottery, I could see Detroit preferring a different guy (namely Liljegren) than us anyways.

Reminds me of what happened with the Kings in 2006-07. They finished the season with the Coyotes. The Kings entered the game with 66 points while the Coyotes had 65. Kopitar scored in the final minute of regulation to win the game. Phoenix wrapped up their schedule the next day with a win. Had the Kings/Coyotes game gone to OT, they would have swapped draft slots.

Coyotes got slotted #3 while the Kings were #4. That year there was a clear cut top 3 (Kane-Turris-JVR). Kings brass wanted a D and ended up reaching for Thomas Hickey at #4. Maybe things would have been different had they ended up at #3? Albeit, they possibly would have just traded down a few spots.

Wow, what one spot can do for a franchise and I guess then the team's draft board of course. Just thought back when Mario, Kirk.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Wow, what one spot can do for a franchise and I guess then the team's draft board of course. Just thought back when Mario, Kirk.

It's why the teams around us in points are all losing a lot lately.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

30.7%

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Thanks.

First try and Philly got the top pick and we ended up in 7th

 

[SeidoN]

30.7%

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Legit got NJ in 1 try

pls

 

[Cheddabombs]

I tried 3 times and had us picking 6th each time...

I really want Hischier

 

[Darkauron]

I am kind of leaning for Hischier rather than Patrick, even though pretty much every scout ranks him #1. And I'm sure most will also disagree with me.

 

[R8Devs]

I am kind of leaning for Hischier rather than Patrick, even though pretty much every scout ranks him #1. And I'm sure most will also disagree with me.

I've been on hischier bandwagon for a while now. So I agree. But Patrick will be fine too

 

[Billdo]

Ran it 10 times, we got 1st four times, 5th 4 times, and 3rd once.

 

[MadDevil]

Ran it 10 times, we got 1st four times, 5th 4 times, and 3rd once.

I ran it 10 times and we got 1st once, 2nd once, and the other 8 times got 5th or worse.

I'm already preparing for us to finish as the 3rd worst team and still end up picking 5th or 6th, because that's about our luck.

 

[GeNeXt]

Just saw Brodeur post on the prospect forum that Swedish defenceman Sebastian Aho is still draft eligible. I would take a chance on him with our later 3rd round pick. Would do wonders for the left side of our D core to add Rykov, Aho and Bayreuther as prospects in a one year span.

And this Heponiemi kid playing for Swift Current seems to be a faller due to his size. I would also take a flier on him if he's available in that range. Adding him and Kelleher would be tremendous for our skill forward prospects pool.