Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)
- Thread starter YWGinYYZ
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- Mar 10, 2010
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Yea Chychrun was #2 to start the season for a reason. Having a shoulder injury coming into the season might have cost him a team Canada spot and it definitley got him off to a slow start. Having him go in the top 3 would not be a shock. I really doubt Edmonton takes him at #1 but maybe at 2 and from 3 on I can see it for sure.
untouchable21
I am not the guy you want to be wrong about.
Chychrun going top 3 would be absolutely HUGE. Would really alter the draft for the teams picking 4-6 because one of the Finns would become available especially if one of those 4-6 teams weren't crazy about a defenseman to begin with.
Their expected BPA (forward) going into the draft may now become the second BPA on their list because they were not expecting a defenseman to go that high.
Good time for Chychrun to leave a lasting impression in their minds and solidify his draft ranking.
Their expected BPA (forward) going into the draft may now become the second BPA on their list because they were not expecting a defenseman to go that high.
Good time for Chychrun to leave a lasting impression in their minds and solidify his draft ranking.
I re-ran the PCS for Tkachuk, relaxing the height (to allow 1 inch difference) and the points (to allow 7 NHLE difference). This put him in a cohort of 7, still with 100% success. Basically, it brought in a bunch of high-end players that he has outscored.
I still have considerable skepticism about Tkachuk for all the reasons that have been stated previously, but using the same objective criteria that is being applied to other players he looks okay.
I still think my rankings would probably look something like....
Matthews
Laine
PLD/Pulju
Tkachuk
Juolevi/Chychrun
Sergachyov
Keller / Nylander
I still have considerable skepticism about Tkachuk for all the reasons that have been stated previously, but using the same objective criteria that is being applied to other players he looks okay.
I still think my rankings would probably look something like....
Matthews
Laine
PLD/Pulju
Tkachuk
Juolevi/Chychrun
Sergachyov
Keller / Nylander
Channelcat
Mennonite
I don't think anyone is overrated Tkachuk based on his name. If anything it has actually cost him. He has gotten here only on shear talent and might be ranked even higher if his name wasnt Tkachuk.
Heheh, it's not PCS but something similar.
His scoring is truly unbelievable but so is his secondary assist numbers.
We're working on pulling data that lets us see primary points and we're hoping at some point T to switch to that.
Tkatchuks "drop" in my eyes has nothing at all to do with his name.
It is because
A)PLD is a Center and thus more valuable
B)Tkatchuk has an insane amount of secondary assists which is a red flag
C)PLD has better underlying numbers (as per garret in the last thread)
If PLD's off the board and it's between Chychrun and Tkachuk I don't care nearly as much.
Once PLD's gone I'd be ok with Tkachuk or any of the Dmen.
It is because
A)PLD is a Center and thus more valuable
B)Tkatchuk has an insane amount of secondary assists which is a red flag
C)PLD has better underlying numbers (as per garret in the last thread)
If PLD's off the board and it's between Chychrun and Tkachuk I don't care nearly as much.
Once PLD's gone I'd be ok with Tkachuk or any of the Dmen.
- Jun 10, 2014
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
There is some significant differences between PCS and the Projection Project.
We're not nearly as good
There is some significant differences between PCS and the Projection Project.
Sorry for conflating the two.
How would the two methods compare in their rating of the top 9 players in the draft? Any substantial differences?
Channelcat
Mennonite
What! Mike Smith's kid? No way!
LOL I was just about to type that. The irony is that Mike Smith drafted Tkachuk, and also Byfuglien!
Is Laine considerably higher than PLD or Pulijujarvi?
If drafting 2nd, is Laine the obvious choice? Or could there be a surprise at 2?
I see the Jets at #2, taking Laine. I also see the Leafs at #3+ taking Tkachuk.
1. CBJ - Matthews
2. Jets - Laine
3. Oilers - Pulijujarvi
4. Leafs - Tkachuk
5. Flames - PLD
6. Canucks - Chyckrun
I can see the Flames coming out pretty well in this draft.
If drafting 2nd, is Laine the obvious choice? Or could there be a surprise at 2?
I see the Jets at #2, taking Laine. I also see the Leafs at #3+ taking Tkachuk.
1. CBJ - Matthews
2. Jets - Laine
3. Oilers - Pulijujarvi
4. Leafs - Tkachuk
5. Flames - PLD
6. Canucks - Chyckrun
I can see the Flames coming out pretty well in this draft.
hard to know.
right off the hopper i would say our system will place NA/CHL players above the three euro league players.
They would probably then have a more accurate rating of the defensemen.
I believe PCS is proprietary and behind closed doors now so i don't think we'll get any info.
I know last year with where their model was at the time of the 15 draft (i believe it had already undergone some significant changes after the draft and before the hire) we lined up very close for NA forwards, we (projproj) overvalued offensive dmen comparatively and undervalued euro players in general.
their success rate numbers are also wholesale much lower due to data samples (they had pretty much every player where as we only sampled players who had been drafted historically)
As much as the pundits have talked about a top three being set in stone, it isn't set in stone. If the Oilers are picking anywhere 3-5 I don't see how they don't take Chychrun. Maybe even over Laine as well.
For that matter, the more info that pops up with PLD, I find myself wondering if Laine is good enough to take over him. Again. We could use either, but getting a two way center should trump almost everything else.
Very small differences between some of these players. I guess our scouts are going to have to earn their money.
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IMO, even if they win lottery and draft 1st OA I can see them trading their pick down to get a defenseman, most likely Chychrun. Of course, with all the goodies that come with trading 1st overall.
I've thought a bit about this - how easily could the Oilers build a championship team with McDavid and Matthews?
Both would likely command max contracts coming out of their ELC, setting up a situation like Chicago or Pittsburgh trying to build around a couple of superstars that take up a lot of the salary cap. As we've seen, the Penguins have struggled to put together depth, despite having a couple of other top players. Chicago has been really successful with Toews and Kane, but they have some advantages that the Oilers might never have. Keith and Seabrook had been on really team-friendly contracts, as was Crawford. They were also a magnet for good free agents. Would Edmonton (or Winnipeg) hold the same allure and be able to build around a couple of stars? Hard to say.
I almost wonder whether teams like Edmonton (or Winnipeg), might be better to build around either one superstar or a stable of second-tier elite players rather than struggling to build around a couple of very expensive superstars.
It will be fascinating to see what the Oilers end up doing.
Joe Hallenback
Moderator
- Mar 4, 2005
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The Oilers will draft Matthews and move other guys. They might be able to keep McDavid/Matthews together for at least 7-8 years and pay them less the 7 per year each. Kane/Toews didn't get the bigger money till after they won the cups.
puck stoppa
Registered User
Yup, no way they don't take Matthews. I like to think that RNH, Hall and Eberle could land a decent dman. I think Chairelli blows it up in summer, interesting to see which D's he targets.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Couple of things....
1) Chevy has been known to go "off the board" He may draft someone unexpected with our lottery pick.
2) Our second first round pick will probably be in play. I can see him packaging the Chicago pick for something....maybe a LHD.
1) Chevy has been known to go "off the board" He may draft someone unexpected with our lottery pick.
2) Our second first round pick will probably be in play. I can see him packaging the Chicago pick for something....maybe a LHD.
They definitely have to take Matthews, I'm just not sure how they'll build around those two (if they get them). I think they are more like Crosby / Malkin in Pitt, and will probably be in line for top-end contracts coming out of their ELC. Keeping them together won't be as much of a problem as building around them, I would think. The salary cap makes that a bit awkward unless you are a team that is able to convince FAs to sign, and you can get some "hometown discount" contracts. Not sure that the Oilers (or Jets) would have those opportunities.
Aavco Cup
"I can make you cry in this room"
- Sep 5, 2013
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USA U18 roster for anyone considering travel to GFK
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- Jun 10, 2014
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If I'm Chiarelli, when I win the first thing I do is offer the 'Yotes first shot at paying too much. Second thing is contact whoever is 4th. I would ask for a good young RHD, a lesser RHD or prospect and their pick. If that's us I hope we tell me (him) to take a hike.
That's what I'd be looking for though, Trouba, Postma/Kostalek and draft Chych. The Oil D is fixed.- Status
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