2016 Draft Thread – Host: Buffalo – Part 1

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Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
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Just keep Matthews and Eichel and use other players as trade bait.
and set the rebuild back another year or two? Reinhart is NHL ready and I'm betting Matthews will not be able to step in the year hes drafted and make a difference. We have almost a sure fire thing in Reinhart and you want to take a chance on Matthews, why? because hes American?
 

Zman5778

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Oct 4, 2005
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and set the rebuild back another year or two? Reinhart is NHL ready and I'm betting Matthews will not be able to step in the year hes drafted and make a difference. We have almost a sure fire thing in Reinhart and you want to take a chance on Matthews, why? because hes American?

Ummm huh? Why can't we keep Eichel, Reinhart AND Matthews?

They're not the only 3 forwards we have with trade value. Ennis or Kane would fetch a nice LHD. So would Girgensons.

I'm not necessarily saying that we SHOULD trade one of the guys I mentioned, but his point of "Taking Matthews and trading someone else" is also completely reasonable.
 

Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
12,666
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Ummm huh? Why can't we keep Eichel, Reinhart AND Matthews?

They're not the only 3 forwards we have with trade value. Ennis or Kane would fetch a nice LHD. So would Girgensons.

I'm not necessarily saying that we SHOULD trade one of the guys I mentioned, but his point of "Taking Matthews and trading someone else" is also completely reasonable.
In the short term yes; in the long term I see numbers and values; I want the best team iced while not cap strapping ourselves like the Blackhawks. Some people might think I'm thinking to far ahead but no; I'm thinking about longevity and having 3 centers with the potential Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews could have will mean your going to be paying your 3rd line center probably somewhere north of 8 mil.

In saying that I get that there is no reason not to take him if we landed 1st overall or we could save ourselves the trouble down the road and use the first overall as a trade chip putting the 8 mil towards a top pairing LHD in Ekman-Larsson.
 

Push Dr Tracksuit

Gerstmann 3:16
Jun 9, 2012
13,407
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It's a pointless convo so let's take the fun path and make blockbusters that will be talked about for years, also sounds more like a Murray move to trade everyone.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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and set the rebuild back another year or two? Reinhart is NHL ready and I'm betting Matthews will not be able to step in the year hes drafted and make a difference. We have almost a sure fire thing in Reinhart and you want to take a chance on Matthews, why? because hes American?

His passport has nothing to do with it.

It's as simple as believing that Matthews will be a far better player than Reinhart will be and he might be a lot closer to Eichel than you appear to believe.

I wouldn't be shocked if Matthews' transition to the NHL is even easier than Eichel's given Matthews' decision to play this season in Europe.

Ummm huh? Why can't we keep Eichel, Reinhart AND Matthews?

They're not the only 3 forwards we have with trade value. Ennis or Kane would fetch a nice LHD. So would Girgensons.

I'm not necessarily saying that we SHOULD trade one of the guys I mentioned, but his point of "Taking Matthews and trading someone else" is also completely reasonable.

It will take some very fortunate timing for the Sabres to be able to land a top pairing LHD.

It would take a Western Conference team with their own LHD version of Seguin/Hamilton/Kessel for it to even be a possibility.

In the short term yes; in the long term I see numbers and values; I want the best team iced while not cap strapping ourselves like the Blackhawks. Some people might think I'm thinking to far ahead but no; I'm thinking about longevity and having 3 centers with the potential Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews could have will mean your going to be paying your 3rd line center probably somewhere north of 8 mil.

In saying that I get that there is no reason not to take him if we landed 1st overall or we could save ourselves the trouble down the road and use the first overall as a trade chip putting the 8 mil towards a top pairing LHD in Ekman-Larsson.

And what if the Yotes won't trade OEL for Matthews?

How many LHD in the league would you trade Eichel for?
 

is the answer jesus

Registered User
Mar 10, 2008
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and set the rebuild back another year or two? Reinhart is NHL ready and I'm betting Matthews will not be able to step in the year hes drafted and make a difference. We have almost a sure fire thing in Reinhart and you want to take a chance on Matthews, why? because hes American?

Matthews will absolutely be able to step in and make an impact as a rookie he's right there with Eichel as a prospect. It has nothing to do with him "being american". On the off chance Buffalo lands first overall you draft Matthews and start shopping around. Reinhart, Kane, Ennis, picks, prospects, there's plenty of enticing pieces for other teams.
 

Moskau

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Jun 30, 2004
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OEL for Matthews doesn't make a ton of sense for Arizona outside of Matthews' birthplace. Arizona has a ton of forward prospects. They would have a huge hole in their defense if they did that trade. Another problem is I don't think there are that many young elite defensemen in the league to begin with because the position takes so much time. Florida needs Ekblad more than they need another center. Lindholm is great but the value isn't quite there for Buffalo. It makes more sense to draft Matthews and shop other players.
 

flashsabre

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Apr 5, 2003
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I live in a reality where it is impossible for the Sabres to win a lottery and draft 1st overall.:sarcasm:

Although I would love the Sabres to finish with the 10th pick and then win the lottery and pick 1st overall at the draft in Buffalo. Twitter and HFBoards would explode in outrage. It would be glorious!!!

Matthews is a stud and if you have a chance to draft him you take it 100 times out of 100. Figure the rest out later but Eichel-Matthews for 12 years would be deadly.
 

haseoke39

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Mar 29, 2011
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I really do believe we have to figure our way to the cup without any more draft picks expected to be contributing, at least not in a serious way. We have enough guys already in their primes that I don't want to condition our contention window on 2016 picks being ready to play big minutes. We need to assemble a playoff caliber defense for next season, imo, and try to tweak our way from there relatively quickly. A long window is important.
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
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Chychrun is the ONLY top target. Followed by Juolevi.

A top wing for Eichel? We've got years of Kane, Girgensons, Ennis... not to mention Fasching, Baptiste, Bailey, etc.

At the top of the draft, if you aren't drafting for need... you are doing it wrong (despite popular myths about BPA)

Agree. I see it nearly the same. If by some act of God Buffalo wins the lottery, they take Matthews and figures something else out. Not going to happen. So, really, there's two ways to go:

Get into the top three by some lesser act of God, and take Chychrun.

Be real and target Juolevi.
 

Heraldic

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Dec 12, 2013
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He looks awesome in London already.

Not sure I agree with the Maata comparison (very similar?). I think Juolevi has shown far greater offensive instinct and attack mentality at this stage. While they are both very well rounded, high end guys for sure. I think Juolevi has shown a higher upside, especially offensively. While Maata definitely had a edge in defensive zone composition at a young age.

He's going to blow Maata's offensive numbers in London out of the water.

I haven't watched him this season in London.

I have seen from him only a couple of games personally, and I base my evaluation more on comments from guys who watch a lot Finnish junior players.

But I think you would say that while Määttä is a bit more defensive oriented, Juolevi is offensive - both still are overall pretty well-balanced.

But regarding Määttä, I think that for some reason his offense dropped when he moved to London from Finland. During the season before his draft season he played a really good season havinh games in Mestis (second tier professional league in Finland), and did pretty well offensively as well for his age. Also was selected to U20 WJC team (which Juolevi wasn't at the same age).

I think a big reason for Määttä to drop as much as he did was that his offense was considered questionable thanks to his seasons in London. After leaving Juniors his offense kind of bounced back. It's pretty strange. But Juolevi still is considered better offensively, despite Määttä's bit drop in London offensively.

Chychrun is the ONLY top target. Followed by Juolevi.

A top wing for Eichel? We've got years of Kane, Girgensons, Ennis... not to mention Fasching, Baptiste, Bailey, etc.

At the top of the draft, if you aren't drafting for need... you are doing it wrong (despite popular myths about BPA)

If this means that we draft Juolevi 3rd overall if Chychrun is taken top-2, I don't think I can agree. Unless Juolevi really has a rock solid season overall and becomes a legitimate top-5 selection.

Drafting philosophy is a lot debated, yet a little actual information is pretty hard to find.

There still is one really interesting interview with Jarmo Kekäläinen when he was an assistant GM in St.Louis: http://www.jatkoaika.com/Kolumni/pää-ja-sydän-ratkaisee-jarmo-kekäläisen-haastattelu-osa-2/77555

And here is the first part (not that much about draft philosophy, though) : http://www.jatkoaika.com/Kolumni/jarmo-kekäläinen-rakentamassa-st-louis-bluesia-osa-1/77621

Unfortunately I don't have time to translate it.

But he says there that you don't really draft for need on higher rounds, because a position once looked a weakness, might be something else after a 4-5 years.

There is also this pretty interesting thing about players being on categories named as "preferable, desirable, acceptable and considerable" between the 1st overall and your own pick (St.Louis drafted 9th overall that year).

So basically if there are two players in the same category, you could draft for need. If for example Puljujärvi and Juolevi both were on "preferable" or "desirable", you could take Juolevi. But if Juolevi is on lower category, you don't take him for a need, and you take Puljujärvi instead regardless of your need.

And after two first rounds your lists consists players listed by their position or style (goaltender, power forward, skill/finesse fw, stay-at-home-defenseman etc). So after the first two rounds you don't list players similarly.

That interview is from 2007, so Keklu might think differently now, and not every organisation act similarly.

I think Juolevi will be a legitimate top-10 selection but not sure will he be legitimate top-5 not to talk about even top-3 selection. Time will tell.
 

RoofIt5hole

Ball Don't Lie
Jul 1, 2014
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2
Chicago
Except Reinhart may be the better fit for Buffalo long term, we already have our Franchise center in Eichel.

I'd trade down to #2 and grab Chychrun.

What do you think would be the return if GMTM traded down from one to two? How desperate would team at #2 be to trade up and grab Mathews? If in this hypothetical, we are fortunate enough to land the number 1 spot, I don't see any way to NOT draft Mathews. Obviously Chychrun fills a more pressing need, but id need a pretty attractive package to pass up Mathews. Say AZ is at #2, what would they really give up to move up 1 spot? AZ would trade what? Rights to Boedker +?
 

Heraldic

Registered User
Dec 12, 2013
2,937
51
What do you think would be the return if GMTM traded down from one to two? How desperate would team at #2 be to trade up and grab Mathews? If in this hypothetical, we are fortunate enough to land the number 1 spot, I don't see any way to NOT draft Mathews. Obviously Chychrun fills a more pressing need, but id need a pretty attractive package to pass up Mathews. Say AZ is at #2, what would they really give up to move up 1 spot? AZ would trade what? Rights to Boedker +?

Bödker will be UFA 1st July.

Most likely you ask for picks/prospects/young roster players.

Most likely they wouldn't be too high 16-17 on standngs even after getting Matthews, so you could ask their 1st round pick from 2017 (no protection). That might end up being pretty valuable, and that might be something they would gamble on to get Matthews.

Basically if trading down you just try to get the best value in that situation.
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
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If this means that we draft Juolevi 3rd overall if Chychrun is taken top-2, I don't think I can agree. Unless Juolevi really has a rock solid season overall and becomes a legitimate top-5 selection.

Drafting philosophy is a lot debated, yet a little actual information is pretty hard to find.

There still is one really interesting interview with Jarmo Kekäläinen when he was an assistant GM in St.Louis: http://www.jatkoaika.com/Kolumni/pää-ja-sydän-ratkaisee-jarmo-kekäläisen-haastattelu-osa-2/77555

And here is the first part (not that much about draft philosophy, though) : http://www.jatkoaika.com/Kolumni/jarmo-kekäläinen-rakentamassa-st-louis-bluesia-osa-1/77621

Unfortunately I don't have time to translate it.

But he says there that you don't really draft for need on higher rounds, because a position once looked a weakness, might be something else after a 4-5 years.

There is also this pretty interesting thing about players being on categories named as "preferable, desirable, acceptable and considerable" between the 1st overall and your own pick (St.Louis drafted 9th overall that year).

So basically if there are two players in the same category, you could draft for need. If for example Puljujärvi and Juolevi both were on "preferable" or "desirable", you could take Juolevi. But if Juolevi is on lower category, you don't take him for a need, and you take Puljujärvi instead regardless of your need.

And after two first rounds your lists consists players listed by their position or style (goaltender, power forward, skill/finesse fw, stay-at-home-defenseman etc). So after the first two rounds you don't list players similarly.

That interview is from 2007, so Keklu might think differently now, and not every organisation act similarly.

I think Juolevi will be a legitimate top-10 selection but not sure will he be legitimate top-5 not to talk about even top-3 selection. Time will tell.

I think the key wording is "top of the draft." If a team is drafting later in the first round, the perspective you wrote about probably holds. Eg: Tampa Bay isn't drafting high, therefore should go BPA.

Buffalo drafted top ten the past three drafts. Ristolainen played 34 games for the Sabres right after being drafted, and Reinhart is with Buffalo a year after being drafted. Eichel is on the team from day one.

If Buffalo is drafting in the top ten again, via trade or standings, that player is probably a year away from being in blue and gold. Therefore, if two or more players are rated equally when Murray picks, you pick for need.
 

Heraldic

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Dec 12, 2013
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I think the key wording is "top of the draft." If a team is drafting later in the first round, the perspective you wrote about probably holds. Eg: Tampa Bay isn't drafting high, therefore should go BPA.

No, that's exactly the opposite what Kekäläinen thinks. Basically Kekäläinen said that there are several tiers between the amount of players are drafted between 1st overall and the pick they hold in 1st round. If Matthews, Chychrun, Puljujärvi and Laine for example are on the upper tier, and Juolevi is on a second tier, you take everyone of them before Juolevi - no matter what the need is.

And Kekäläinen said that was the pattern on 1st AND 2nd round. Not just for top-10.

If Buffalo is drafting in the top ten again, via trade or standings, that player is probably a year away from being in blue and gold. Therefore, if two or more players are rated equally when Murray picks, you pick for need.

Exactly. But picking Juolevi 3rd overall over Puljujärvi (for example) isn't doing that atm. Juolevi is trending nicely, but he is not in the top-3 conversation yet.

That would have been closer for Calgary picking Haydn Fleury instead of Bennett because they had bigger need for defence. I don't think that would have been the right call.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
58,179
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Rochester, NY
What do you think would be the return if GMTM traded down from one to two? How desperate would team at #2 be to trade up and grab Mathews? If in this hypothetical, we are fortunate enough to land the number 1 spot, I don't see any way to NOT draft Mathews. Obviously Chychrun fills a more pressing need, but id need a pretty attractive package to pass up Mathews. Say AZ is at #2, what would they really give up to move up 1 spot? AZ would trade what? Rights to Boedker +?

Duclair + Domi + 2nd Overall for 1st Overall

Although, I wonder if Arizona would be that interested in trading up. I think people overestimate how badly teams want homegrown kids.
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
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No, that's exactly the opposite what Kekäläinen thinks. Basically Kekäläinen said that there are several tiers between the amount of players are drafted between 1st overall and the pick they hold in 1st round. If Matthews, Chychrun, Puljujärvi and Laine for example are on the upper tier, and Juolevi is on a second tier, you take everyone of them before Juolevi - no matter what the need is.

And Kekäläinen said that was the pattern on 1st AND 2nd round. Not just for top-10.



Exactly. But picking Juolevi 3rd overall over Puljujärvi (for example) isn't doing that atm. Juolevi is trending nicely, but he is not in the top-3 conversation yet.

That would have been closer for Calgary picking Haydn Fleury instead of Bennett because they had bigger need for defence. I don't think that would have been the right call.

I worded the first part poorly. Agree on tiers - think I explained it better in the second part of my original response.
 

Husko

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Jun 30, 2006
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Duclair + Domi + 2nd Overall for 1st Overall

Although, I wonder if Arizona would be that interested in trading up. I think people overestimate how badly teams want homegrown kids.

Regardless of wanting homegrown kids, they still need an elite #1 center. Sure, their kids look good and organizationally they have forward depth, but if you don't have a franchise center you don't pass up the chance to get one.
 

Zip15

Registered User
Jun 3, 2009
28,134
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Bodymore
Regardless of wanting homegrown kids, they still need an elite #1 center. Sure, their kids look good and organizationally they have forward depth, but if you don't have a franchise center you don't pass up the chance to get one.

I'm guessing they think the kid who led the OHL in scoring in his draft year will be an elite 1C.

Duclair + Domi + 2nd Overall for 1st Overall

Although, I wonder if Arizona would be that interested in trading up. I think people overestimate how badly teams want homegrown kids.

They won't give up that much for Matthews if they're sitting at 2. I think they'd be content to ride with Strome as their top center going forward, keep Domi and Duclair (who look awesome in Tippett's system), and have a sick 1st pairing of OEL-Chychrun.
 
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