Speculation: 2014 Trade Deadline Discussion - Part IX - The Buffalo Syndrome

[Darth Vitale]

All rumors and proposals to be in this thread. Here's IcedCapp's list from the previous threads.

----------------------

Last year, as we approached the trade deadline (in our pursuit of Iginla) I created a post discussing the "regrettability" factor in trading any of the Penguins players.

Basically, "how much would/could we regret this in the future." I'm doing it again this year but combining it with a topic that's been pretty "hot" the past few weeks: untouchable players. This is obviously speculative on our part, since we can't know exactly what the organization is thinking, but ... who cares!

Regrettable Scale: 1 (Craig Adams) - 10 (James Neal)

The untouchables

1. Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin (1000000) - Both untouchable, neither will be traded, both would make you regret it in the morning.

2. James Neal (10) - There are few wingers in the league better than James Neal, and maybe none better for Evgeni Malkin's RW. He's a 40-goal scorer and a PPG player who has not only shown a remarkable scoring touch and chemistry with Malkin, but has taken the next step in improving his grit and physicality.

Not Untouchable, but pretty darn close

3. Olli Maatta - (9) Already in the NHL at age 19, the kid has the physical tools and hockey IQ that could see him playing top-pairing minutes in the not-so-distant future. His age, skill set and contract combine to make him one of the most-valuable assets in the organization, and not one they will be in a hurry to move.

4. Kris Letang - (8.5) One of the most physically gifted players in the NHL, Letang's issues - if there are any - are between the ears. One of the most polarizing players among fans, Letang has the ability to turn defense into offense as fast as anyone in the league. While the Pens are rich in defensive prospects, they don't have anyone like Letang waiting in the wings.

A big part in his ranking is his regrettability score. If Letang were to be traded to another team and that team was able to reign him in, turning him into a 60pt d-man who can bring a consistent defensive game and physical edge? It would be worse than any fleecing Shero has pulled off.

5. Paul Martin (8) - While not as flashy as Letang, many would argue that Martin is the Penguins' best defenseman. A steady player who can play 25-minutes+ a game while shutting down the opposition's top lines AND providing a calming presence on the top PP unit, Martin went from whipping boy to underpaid in just over a season.

Martin's regrettability score is not based in the fact that he would move on to become a better player, but simply the fact that he is one of the Penguins' best, and losing him would leave a gigantic hole on the back-end.

6. Chris Kunitz (8) - Similar to Martin- Kunitz's RS is based on the hole he'd leave on the roster if the Penguins were to move him. At 34 he's likely about to hit a downturn in performance, but for now, he's likely the "Crosby's Neal" everyone has been pining for.

7. Beau Bennett (8) - Perhaps an awkward inclusion for some, Bennett's inability to stay on the ice has tarnished him in the eyes of some Penguins fans.

When healthy, Bennett has proven that he can not only play the RW with Crosby or the LW with Malkin, but look like he belongs while doing it. His smarts, responsible play and grittiness make him effective on any line, but his hockey IQ and creativity make him a perfect, much-needed match for the two superstar centers.

Moving Bennett would be filling one hole and creating another.

8. Derrick Pouliot (8) - Pouliot showed why the Penguins drafted him so high at the WJC, where he was Canada's best player over the course of the tournament.

PPQB, smart, good decision making, a good shot, and not an abject failure in his own end, Pouliot will bring something to the Penguins back end that they haven't had since Sergai Gonchar ole'd his way to Ottawa.

9. Scott Harrington (8) - Smart, great awareness, good skating, good along the boards. Harrington will likely never light the world on fire, but he should be the perfect replacement for Rob Scuderi down the road.

Touchable, but only for the right price

10. Simon Despres (8) - big, strong, physical, good skater. Whatever. My love for Despres is well-documented. I'd have him in the previous tier, but I don't think the Penguins feel the same way, and I'm trying to keep this fair/"honest."

11. Brandon Sutter (6) - As with Neal, Kunitz, Bennett - Sutter has good value and would likely be coveted by more than one team, but moving him for a winger would only create another hole at 3C. Some would argue that's a fair trade, but it's likely one that Ray Shero isn't interested in pursuing. I don't have Sutter's RS as high, simply because I think he is what he is: a good 3rd-line center. I don't think there's any untapped potential there. The team DOES need to help him out with better wingers, though.

12. Brian Dumoulin (8) - So I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen from Dumoulin, but the team and many observers have been. He's big (6'3, 200lbs) and a good skater. He doesn't have a mean streak (though I'm sure he could develop) and the team trusts him on the PK and the PP. This score and position is a mix of my thoughts (i'd have him lower) and the team's thoughts (they'd likely have him higher).

13. Matt Niskanen (6) - A throwaway before the season, Niskanen has shown that, while he shouldn't be counted on to be a consistent top-4 guy, he's able to occasionally flash a brilliant performance. I have his RS this high because while moving him would allow someone I want to see play (Bortuzzo) to get into the lineup, Niskanen provides nice depth in the even of injuries to Martin and Letang. He's able to step up on the PP, he's not soft, and he can move the puck.

The biggest questions around Niskanen will be answered in the playoffs.

14. Brooks Orpik (4) - a veteran leader and a physical presence, Bruce has been a fixture on the Penguins back end since before the league was founded. To many, Orpik seems to be on the tail end of his career (and falling rapidly), but it's clear that the team (and others around the league) still hold him in high regard. Moving him would likely open up the spot for a cheaper, younger, better player, and I don't see him going on to anothert team and making a huge difference, but ... okay.

15. Robert Bortuzzo (6) - Bort will never put up big offensive numbers, but he is big, physical, and has a lovely mean streak. That, combined with his skating ability, make him ideal to be the eventual replacement for someone like Brooks Orpik. Given his age and contract status, I think losing Bort would likely be more regrettable than losing someone like Orpik. I also think Bortuzzo can continue to get better with playing time.

Touch, PLEASE!!!!

16. Jussi Jokinen (5) - A consistent player who provided some much-needed offense leading up to the playoffs in 2012, Jokinen has been a perfectly acceptable player on the Penguins roster. But he's a soon-to-be UFA who won't get a sniff on Crosby's line, isn't ideal for Malkin's line and doesn't have enough grit for Sutter's line, so the Penguins will likely move on from him in the off-season rather than pay him $3MM to be an awkward fit on a roster in need of some tweaking. I'm not sure Jokinen has much value to begin with, but if the right deal came along, I'm sure the Pens would pursue it.

17. Tanner Glass, Craig Adams (-10) - **** off


Not mentioned:

Marc-Andre Fleury (???) - He has value, but the Penguins cannot move him. Maybe they look to Ryan Miller in the off-season, but for the rest of this season, Fleury's presence on the roster is as necessary as anyone's.

Rob Scuderi (5) - I didn't want Scuderi brought in in the first place, and I don't think, to-date, he's proven me wrong, but he (along with the rest of the defense) has been injured for much of the season, so what I'll say is this: the Penguins just signed him. They aren't trading him.

The Goalie Prospects (???) - I don't know much about them, because they aren't biscuit-minded goal scorer things, so I don't pay attention, but the team made a concerted effort to improve organizational depth at G. They aren't going to move it now.

JOE VICTORY (1,000,000,000,000,000) - No point in moving him, really. And unlike years past, Vitale has earned Bylsma's trust, centering the 4th line, getting time at 1RW, playing on the 3rd line, etc... He's cheap, he's great at face-offs, and he's a ball of energy. Perfect 4th liner.

Megna, Gibbons, Conner, Sill, Zolnierczyk - The Pens AHL depth has been vital to their successes this year. They likely don't have a lot of value league-wide, so it would be prudent to keep them around (especially Gibbons and Megna) to see just how high their ceilings can go.

Click to read more...

 

[ColePens]

And... go

 

[Pharrell Williams]

Despres + 1st for Selanne.

Bortuzzo + 1st + Fleury for Brodeur.

Maatta for Pronger.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

This is why Orpik should be on the block. Nisky, even JJ IF someone is going to pay a premium. Even Engo. Glass if someone wants him.

Any impending UFA who has no business being back (all of them but Niskanen) or you can't afford (Niskanen) need to be made available.

Nothing to say you can't sell and buy. San Jose did it last year, and they actually came together as a team.

Their only problem is that they play in the west.

Of course this would be the logical route, but as you know it would never happen. It could certainly help erase the "all in " moves from last year and help us going forward without even really hurting us this year. But as I said, zero chance of happening.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Grab a seat! Should be interesting.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I would think the fact that he has a NTC, and knowing who our centers are, if he indeed insists on playing center I don't see him being happy as a third liner. Based on that info I doubt he waives his NTC to come to Pitt.

We don't know for sure, but if the reports that the pens made an offer are accurate it usually means Kesler is willing to waive his NMC to come to pgh, GM's usually don't waste a bunch of time talking trades with teams unless they have a pretty good idea the player is willing to waive his NMC.

 

[MtlPenFan]

For KIRK in response to "I was right about Shero"




Look, the Kunitz/Guerin trades helped win a Stanley Cup. You can never take that away from him.

At the time, the Kunitz trade was a hockey trade. A need for a need which ended up being a steal because of Whitney's injury troubles. Guerin was a 38 year old winger for a conditional draft choice who had one last run in him. However, let's not forget that it still took Max Talbot and Ruslan Fedetenko being taken over by the spirits of Kevin Stevens and Rick Tochett for that Cup run to work.

Neal and Nisky was brilliant, but at the same time he bamboozled a GM who will never be GM of anything ever again. You think Jim Nil makes that trade?

People will bring up the Iginla trade, but in the end it was Iginla who made that trade happen by sticking it to the Flames. Nobody was more suckered by that move than me.

But in between, we've had pick after pick after pick being traded away for RENTALS to cover up for draft shortcomings.

In between, we've had Tanner Glass making 1M a year. We've had Mark ****ing Eaton being re-signed after he couldn't make the ****ing Islanders. The ISLANDERS!!!

In between we've had an organization that hasn't been able to fill the role of a 4th line grinder in his 30's in Adams.

In between, we have a stockpiling of defensemen who need to be "ripened" because they don't play "Penguins ice hockey", even though they're clearly better than the guys the organization "trusts"

In between, we've had one springtime humiliation after another, with nothing more than assurances that whatever went wrong can easily be fixed as long as they kept doing what they were doing.

You my friend were warned over 2 years ago. Bylsma took most of the flak, but his GM had hitched his wagon to him and deserved just as much of the blame.

It is so, so easy to sweep the Poni trades and Eaton signings and the worst bottom six in the league under the rug when you inherited guys like Sid and Geno to insulate you.

There is nothing dynamic about this team. It's 3 or 4 guys carrying the load with flash and dash and tricking everyone who doesn't know better into thinking the TEAM is better than it actually is.

 

[Dr Frasier Crane]

@BillHoppeNHL
#Sabres get a first-rounder in 2014 if the Blues reach the conference final or Ryan Miller re-signs w/St. Louis. #Buffalo

I'm assuming this is in addition to the previously-mentioned picks. Liking this more and more for Buffalo.

 

[KIRK]

MTLPensFan's parting gift to the last installment of this thread:

Look, the Kunitz/Guerin trades helped win a Stanley Cup. You can never take that away from him.

At the time, the Kunitz trade was a hockey trade. A need for a need which ended up being a steal because of Whitney's injury troubles. Guerin was a 38 year old winger for a conditional draft choice who had one last run in him. However, let's not forget that it still took Max Talbot and Ruslan Fedetenko being taken over by the spirits of Kevin Stevens and Rick Tochett for that Cup run to work.

Neal and Nisky was brilliant, but at the same time he bamboozled a GM who will never be GM of anything ever again. You think Jim Nil makes that trade?

People will bring up the Iginla trade, but in the end it was Iginla who made that trade happen by sticking it to the Flames. Nobody was more suckered by that move than me.

But in between, we've had pick after pick after pick being traded away for RENTALS to cover up for draft shortcomings.

In between, we've had Tanner Glass making 1M a year. We've had Mark ****ing Eaton being re-signed after he couldn't make the ****ing Islanders. The ISLANDERS!!!

In between we've had an organization that hasn't been able to fill the role of a 4th line grinder in his 30's in Adams.

In between, we have a stockpiling of defensemen who need to be "ripened" because they don't play "Penguins ice hockey", even though they're clearly better than the guys the organization "trusts"

In between, we've had one springtime humiliation after another, with nothing more than assurances that whatever went wrong can easily be fixed as long as they kept doing what they were doing.

You my friend were warned over 2 years ago. Bylsma took most of the flak, but his GM had hitched his wagon to him and deserved just as much of the blame.

It is so, so easy to sweep the Poni trades and Eaton signings and the worst bottom six in the league under the rug when you inherited guys like Sid and Geno to insulate you.

There is nothing dynamic about this team. It's 3 or 4 guys carrying the load with flash and dash and tricking everyone who doesn't know better into thinking the TEAM is better than it actually is.

So hard to argue with any of that. Can only add that it also helped in 2009 to have avoided the conference's 2 best defensive teams (Boston and New Jersey) and to have faced Detroit with Datsyuk hurt (which meant Franzen-Filpula-Hossa, not Franzen-Datsyuk-Hossa, on Malkin, and trickled down to be an advantage for Staal too).

EDIT: Yes, MTL, you told me so . . .

 

[Michael8771*]

We don't know for sure, but if the reports that the pens made an offer are accurate it usually means Kesler is willing to waive his NMC to come to pgh, GM's usually don't waste a bunch of time talking trades with teams unless they have a pretty good idea the player is willing to waive his NMC.

I just think it would be counter intuitive for Kesler to come here if his desire is to play center. If he wanted to play wing, great, but I doubt he would want that.

 

[cheesedanish87]

@BillHoppeNHL
#Sabres get a first-rounder in 2014 if the Blues reach the conference final or Ryan Miller re-signs w/St. Louis. #Buffalo

I'm assuming this is in addition to the previously-mentioned picks. Liking this more and more for Buffalo.

What?

So there getting 2 first round picks Stewart Halak and a prospect? that can't be right.

 

[penguins2946*]

If that tweet from the last thread is true about Kesler wanting to play center, there's no point in pursuing him anymore. So who now? Callahan? Hemsky? Stewart?

 

[KIRK]

Of course this would be the logical route, but as you know it would never happen. It could certainly help erase the "all in " moves from last year and help us going forward without even really hurting us this year. But as I said, zero chance of happening.

I know.

San Jose sold Murray and Clowe for premiums, rented Torres, and was a better team for it.

Shero could sell Orpik, and it's addition by subtraction, not to mention addition by addition.

Sutter is going to want more money. He's an impending RFA. He shouldn't just be on the market for Kesler.

As I keep saying, the core of this team, right now, should be Sid, Geno, Neal, and Maatta. Anyone else, and Shero should be willing to listen.

The problem is that Shero's definition of the core is any roster player and any good prospect who isn't annoying.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

@BillHoppeNHL
#Sabres get a first-rounder in 2014 if the Blues reach the conference final or Ryan Miller re-signs w/St. Louis. #Buffalo

I'm assuming this is in addition to the previously-mentioned picks. Liking this more and more for Buffalo.

Wow. Wow.


Wow.

 

[KIRK]

We don't know for sure, but if the reports that the pens made an offer are accurate it usually means Kesler is willing to waive his NMC to come to pgh, GM's usually don't waste a bunch of time talking trades with teams unless they have a pretty good idea the player is willing to waive his NMC.

I'll say three things on Kesler:

1. If Dupuis and Beau are healthy and guys like Megna play and Shero isn't a buffoon this offseason (ok, I know THAT one is a big IF), then the situation won't look so extreme next season in terms of the top nine winger options.

2. If Bylsma weren't a moron, then he could utilize Kesler as a C/W weapon, sort of like how Staal could've been utilized if he weren't a cry baby about playing wing sometimes.

3. It would be nice to have two centers on this roster who were properly utilized again, although I hardly look forward to Byslma marginalizing Malkin further in the process.

 

[ds246pit]

@BillHoppeNHL
#Sabres get a first-rounder in 2014 if the Blues reach the conference final or Ryan Miller re-signs w/St. Louis. #Buffalo

I'm assuming this is in addition to the previously-mentioned picks. Liking this more and more for Buffalo.

I believe the 2016 3rd is conditional and become the 2014 if either of those scenario's occur.

Can you imagine if they flip Halak and Stewart and Moulson now??

 

[KIRK]

@BillHoppeNHL
#Sabres get a first-rounder in 2014 if the Blues reach the conference final or Ryan Miller re-signs w/St. Louis. #Buffalo

I'm assuming this is in addition to the previously-mentioned picks. Liking this more and more for Buffalo.

This deal just became BIG for Buffalo.

I liked it before this condition. This is like icing on the cake.

 

[Pharrell Williams]

I like the Blues, but I hope they lose in the Conference Finals now just because it would make them look super silly.

They kinda already do, in my opinion.

 

[penguins2946*]

Wow, if the Blues make the CF this year, they would have traded their 1sts in all of 2013, 2014 and 2015. When you have the top prospect pool in the league and great young players, I guess you can do that.

 

[Captain Hook]

Buffalo got quite a haul for Miller and Ott. Going to be tough for Shero to make moves with these prices.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I believe the 2016 3rd is conditional and become the 2014 if either of those scenario's occur.

Can you imagine if they flip Halak and Stewart and Moulson now??

This is a really good deal for Buffalo, i hope Shero don't pay this much for any rentals.

If Buffalo can draft good there going to be really good in 4 or 5 years.

 

[KIRK]

I believe the 2016 3rd is conditional and become the 2014 if either of those scenario's occur.

Can you imagine if they flip Halak and Stewart and Moulson now??

Jesus . . .

Vanek flipped to Moulson and what is going to be a high first in 2014.

Moulson is going to be flipped into a first caliber return, maybe even a little more, given how tough the market is.

Ott and Miller flipped long term into Carrier (a really underrated prospect, a 2015 first (deep draft), and a 2016 3rd that becomes a 2014 first if the Blues reach the WCF or Miller resigns.

Halak will be flipped into a pick.

Stewart will be flipped.

IMO, he should be flipped into a young center with maybe second line upside short term who can slide to a 3C role as the Sabres rebuild with more talent.

And, before you say 'Sutter for Stewart', I expect Philly to beat Ottawa to the punch with Couts or Schenn as the basis.

 

[KIRK]

Wow, if the Blues make the CF this year, they would have traded their 1sts in all of 2013, 2014 and 2015. When you have the top prospect pool in the league and great young players, I guess you can do that.

Especially if you can draft well AFTER the first round.

EDIT: Not to imply, of course, that there's anything wrong with the fact NO Penguin who will take the ice in the playoffs will have been a post first round draft pick from Ray Shero's 8 NHL drafts.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Let me ask something....

After we won in 09 , what did you guys expect us to do throughout Crosy and Malkins careers? 2 more cups...3...4?

My mindset back then was we "should " at least win 2 more. Whenever that may be. And yeah it's been frustrating the last 4 years, but we still have a long ways to go. I guess it's about expectations . If some were expecting the next dynasty in an era where that is next to impossible, then of course there will be disappointment. There's just too many variables these days . The main one being a cap. Would love to see what we could do without one, you'd see plenty of players coming aboard to try to win( like we saw with jersey, Detroit, Colorado in 90s) but that's a moot point.

Even with all that's happened, I guess I'm not as frustrated because I can still see this team winning two more cups. May have to wait until bylsma is fired, or even Shero...but regardless I do think my expectations will be completed.

And sure we can look back on it all and say we could've done more if not for the " dark years" but would anyone not be happy with this core winning 3 cups when all said and done? However, I'm assuming there's people who don't even think we can win 2 more so there will be a little more frustration right now than how I'm looking at it all.

Also, no doubt Shero felt the pressure in not winning so he went all in last year. That hurt us going forward. We can't keep doing that. I'm pretty sure he realizes that. It would be nice if he would restock that system by trading some UFAs this year, but that's not happening. Point is, need to stop looking at doing whatever it takes to win the cup each year, and look at the big picture. Don't mortgage it each year. Some will say Crosby and Malkin are almost out of their prime so we need to win now. I disagree, they are generational talents...their primes are much longer than others. We have time. There's no need to panic each year and mortgaging the future to try to get that 2nd cup. I still say we end up with 3. That's my opinion.

Speaking of that , an outsider reading our comments can't help but think how spoiled we are when we are talking about winning multiple cups and they'd kill for their team to just win one. Could be worse.

 

[Captain Hook]

According to a poster on the main trade board the Pens were not mentioned by Mckenzie when he listed the 7 teams seriously pursuing Kesler. Maybe they've moved on but we did have some other reports saying they were in on him earlier today. Who knows.

Bobby mac on tsn radio.

Over 20 teams in the league have inquired on Kesler.

7 Teams have serious interest. Including the oilers,leafs,Red wings, Blackhawks,bruins,Rangers,Columbus.

Also said that he is the most valuable trade deadline target in ages, mostly because of his versatility in every position, and proven playoff an Olympic complete level.

Says that he would be "surprised" if kesler is not traded by the deadline.

Said that keslers value is incredibly high, that would include a top 1st, top prospect, and young roster player (center preferably).

Also said that a "bidding war" would happen as soon as the canucks acknowledge which teams he will play for.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=80684253#post80684253