No need to get overboard, Switzerland has finished 9th and 11th before winning silver last year. Let's stay sane here. Same with FIFA tournament, Denmark '92 and Greece '04 are great examples but lets put football aside.
I just mentioned the 8 teams that medaled recently to illustrate my point. I could also have said that the same five teams always win IIHF tournaments.
The problem is that while some teams are just happy to be there teams in the middle of the pack (once again I'll take Latvia as an example) are getting complacent because they have no fear of dropping out and no ambition of winning. Latvian KHL "stars" treat a tournament a nuisance.
I'm not sure teams such as Latvia have a big enough margin to afford that. Over the last 10 years, teams such as Belarus and Germany have been relegated, Latvia came close a few times and even Slovakia and the USA had to play against relegation. Look at the crazy combination of results we had in the Helsinki group last year, Latvia is not safe.
That's true but the timeline is not clear. It might take 10-20 or even more years for one of those fringe teams to step up. Why not increase the number of participants when these nations actually get there?
Agreed. When the IIHF increased the top pool to 16 teams, I thought it was a bad decision, and that 12 or 14 would have been better. However, based on the last few years, I think 16 is now fine. Obviously, from a D1A point of view, the current situation is not the best, but as I said, these things will evolve.
That is absolutely not true. I think you know it yourself, there is more than enough evidence to see these teams can really challenge one another.
Same goes to the D1B, Hungary is no hockey giant, the lost to the Netherlands on their home ice in the OGQ and they face off against Poland fairly frequently with mixed end results. Hungary's or Ukraine's hockey level is a lot closer to D2B nations like Poland, GB or Korea than it is to Italy or Austria. By the way, Poland has won against Italians this year too.
My scenario wasn't a prediction of the future, but a reflection of the last few seasons, in which France and Belarus are ahead of Italy/Austria/Slovenia/Kazakhstan, and Hungary has been one win away from promotion three years in a row. The fact is, you pretty much admit that with a 12 teams top pool, there wouldn't be much movement between D1A and D1B because of the same gap we now have between the top pool and D1A.
But hey, that's what we are talking about, D1A isn't close at all. Hungary, Japan or Ukraine are probably decades away from catching up with nations with solid hockey pyramids. That's kind of the topic of this discussion. The only thing which I think can happen is the collapse of the Slovenian NT due to the obvious reasons but that will take decades too.
I think the current tournament shows that D1A can be close. And even if not, you simply can't say it will take decades for things to change. 10 years ago, Denmark was just promoted, Norway struggled to stay in the top pool, France didn't even have a dedicted hockey federation and Ukraine was a top 12 team. Things evolve, and you can't always predict how.
Beside, when you mention "nations with solid hockey pyramids", you make it sound like there is clear gap in the way these federations work. But when you look at it closer, Austria has a strong league, although with foreign teams, Kazakhstan has a KHL team and a working national league, Italy has a mediocre league that just lost a team to EBEL, while Slovenia's pool of player is much smaller than everyone else's and they have no local pro league. On the other hand, Japan and South Korea recently setup a working league together, Hungary as a working league as well and a team in EBEL, and Ukraine has a KHL team. I see no reason why those country wouldn't be able to catch up on Slovenia or Italy. Not saying it will happen for sure, but the current setup certainly won't prevent it from happening.
.. brilliant goal.
