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Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster building / proposal thread Part II

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Fletch said:
I don't think anybody thinks the game can be run by a computer. The point with stats is they're used as a tool. Advanced stats gets you closer to understanding a player without watching, but doesn't fully replace watching. It's a tool. People will mostly say the be goal scorer is person who's led the league 4 of the last 6 seasons. The best setup man is the centerman who led the league in assists 4 of the last 6 seasons. Those always seem to be decent places to begin the argument, so why not use the other stats to start a position? Every has a different set of eyes. Everyone seems to have a different opinion when watching the same game. These stats will sometimes make you think, hmmn, maybe I should watch more closely and see what comes of it. GMs use them. Coaches use them. Analysts use them. So why can't it be used in here to show something that is at least factual instead of an opinion based on what someone saw which was different from someone else? They're not the end-all, be-all, but if they're available, they're worth noting. If you don't agree, you can obviously logically say why.
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Numbers don't tell us the heart of player, his determination to win a game, a puck battle,etc. You are right that it is a tool but that's it, I still believe in the old school approach. I want to see the player with my own 2 eyes and see how he responds in all different situations. IMHO, numbers do lie and they tend to pre judge a player
 
THE BIG WHISTLE said:
Numbers don't tell us the heart of player, his determination to win a game, a puck battle,etc. You are right that it is a tool but that's it, I still believe in the old school approach. I want to see the player with my own 2 eyes and see how he responds in all different situations. IMHO, numbers do lie and they tend to pre judge a player
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I'm old school too. But if the numbers do continue to say something consistently that my eyes are saying are different, I think I'd tend to pay more attention to those details to see if in fact the numbers do lie because if the numbers are consistent, I tend to think they don't lie (if a guy tries hard all season, has bad luck, hits a bunch of posts, runs into hot goalies and scores 15 goals, and the same thing keeps happening, I'm labeling him a third liner most likely).
 
THE BIG WHISTLE said:
That's why it's a message board and not STATS 101, if you think the game is played by inputing numbers then my friend you have never played a game in your life. Their are so many variables to a player that you can't put into some math problem
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This needs to be stickied
 
Tawnos said:
Cody Eakin came away from the 11/12 season with people wondering if he'd be any better than a 4th liner. One offseason later and he's NHL ready, but has to spend half the year in the AHL due to the lockout. In the shortened season, he managed to double his productivity. That offseason for Eakin is what this offseason is for Miller.

Silverfish, I think you're drawing far too many conclusions from Millers NHL game thus far. Have an open mind on what he could be bringing to the table as he develops. Off seasons are hugely important for young players to internalize and better understand how to utilize the things they learned the previous year. It's way too early to be down on the guy.
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Thank you for a productive post.

I don't disagree with any of it. My basis of Miller arguments is exactly that, what I've seen so far. It leaves me pessimistic, but as always, I'm ready to eat the crow if it turns out Miller grows into what we need him to be. I'm always hoping he does - despite my negativity towards him.

I'm excited to see what he does in camp, but I'm not thrilled with the fact that right now he's our leading candidate for 3C. My mind is ready to be changed. But that pessimism leads me to speculate other options that may be available. It's the dog days of summer, work is insanely slow, it's the only reason why I try to think of a solution, and then defend it :)

Let's see what happens this season if a bunch of NYR regulars decide to meet up and skate a few weeks before camp. Maybe JT will join them this time.
 
Fletch said:
I'm old school too. But if the numbers do continue to say something consistently that my eyes are saying are different, I think I'd tend to pay more attention to those details to see if in fact the numbers do lie because if the numbers are consistent, I tend to think they don't lie (if a guy tries hard all season, has bad luck, hits a bunch of posts, runs into hot goalies and scores 15 goals, and the same thing keeps happening, I'm labeling him a third liner most likely).
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Believe me I'm actually numbers guy but just not when it comes down to evaluating a player. For instance, shooting % is one of the most overrated stats, everytime you take a shot you have a chance of scoring but mostly likely your Shooting% will be low compared to a player who rarely shoots but say scores 3 goals on 6 shot. Everybody says this is the guy to get because his shooting% is 50% but yet the player who scored 30 goals on 150 shots is not good enough because of a 20% shooting %
 
silverfish said:
Thank you for a productive post.

I don't disagree with any of it. My basis of Miller arguments is exactly that, what I've seen so far. It leaves me pessimistic, but as always, I'm ready to eat the crow if it turns out Miller grows into what we need him to be. I'm always hoping he does - despite my negativity towards him.

I'm excited to see what he does in camp, but I'm not thrilled with the fact that right now he's our leading candidate for 3C. My mind is ready to be changed. But that pessimism leads me to speculate other options that may be available. It's the dog days of summer, work is insanely slow, it's the only reason why I try to think of a solution, and then defend it :)

Let's see what happens this season if a bunch of NYR regulars decide to meet up and skate a few weeks before camp. Maybe JT will join them this time.
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Listen, I think what it really boils down to, for JT, is if he takes control of his opportunity.

For him to be a successful player in this league, he needs to approach every thing he does in a different manner.

My friend is best friends with Kreider, she talked to JT two years ago. I'm pretty sure she used the words "really immature" to describe JT. He was 18 at the time, right about to turn 19.

He's only 21 years old, for some people it takes longer to learn how to be a good professional.

In any event, that needs to happen for him to be successful.

But why I wouldn't trade Miller for Eakin is because to me, one thing seems rather transparent. Miller has a higher offensive ceiling and I'm basing that on previous comparable statistics.
 
From Elliotte Friedman's 30 Thoughts:

1. Here's another trend for you: Right now, there are eight teams in the NHL without a centre carrying a $5 million average salary. Only one made last season's playoffs -- the New York Rangers. The others are Arizona, Buffalo, Calgary, Nashville, Ottawa, Toronto and Winnipeg. I'm not sure this is a coincidence. Look at the arms race for centres since the Stanley Cup was awarded.

2. The cash value for middlemen is trending upward, too. Fourteen teams have a centre above $6 million. Only one (Montreal) has their top earner right at $5 million. Derick Brassard's negotiations/arbitration could change the Rangers' situation, but if he doesn't crack five, you have to assume Derek Stepan will.

The rest of Friedman's column:

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...-defenceman-cash-in-on-free-agent-frenzy.html

Cody Franson gets 3.3M for 1 year

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/cody-franson-maple-leafs-avoid-arbitration-1.2713280
 
Trading Hags and Miller should net something a lot more than Eakin.

What teams (I know Florida and Nashville) have good organizational center depth that would make good trade partners. Our best position of strength to deal from is defense and possibly wing.
 
Miller should look at Del Zotto and realize that if he doesn't mature, he could find himself in Nashville, or worse, without a job.

I think he'll be fine though, but I still maintain that Lindberg is going to end up being the better overall center.
 
Lundsanity30 said:
Elliotte Friedman********✔*@FriedgeHNIC

Kreider (NYR) requests $2.8M. Rangers have offered a two-year deal at $1.9, then $2.2
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Less than a million apart.

About what I expected from both parties.

One guy ask for the sun, moon and stars. The other offers the sun.

Settle on the Sun and Moon and call it a day.

Not a crazy ask/offer by either party really. This should get worked out in chort order.
 
I really don't think you get anything from looking at advanced stats and a kid that is just breaking into the league in a minor role.

BTW, JTM played real well for us, and was one of our better players, for a while there but was bumped when someone returned from injury with like 20 games to go or whatever (I've forgot the details).
 
Rust Heisenberg said:
Listen, I think what it really boils down to, for JT, is if he takes control of his opportunity.

For him to be a successful player in this league, he needs to approach every thing he does in a different manner.

My friend is best friends with Kreider, she talked to JT two years ago. I'm pretty sure she used the words "really immature" to describe JT. He was 18 at the time, right about to turn 19.

He's only 21 years old, for some people it takes longer to learn how to be a good professional.

In any event, that needs to happen for him to be successful.

But why I wouldn't trade Miller for Eakin is because to me, one thing seems rather transparent. Miller has a higher offensive ceiling and I'm basing that on previous comparable statistics.
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Lucky for him we have a few veterans, not only in the NHL but the AHL, and some "been there done that" young players. Hopefully he utilizes it.

Let's see if he can put it together.
 
pld459666 said:
Less than a million apart.

About what I expected from both parties.

One guy ask for the sun, moon and stars. The other offers the sun.

Settle on the Sun and Moon and call it a day.

Not a crazy ask/offer by either party really. This should get worked out in chort order.
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Didn't see that. They should be able to reach an agreement. Kreider is asking quite a lot, and I think he knows it. But who wouldn't...
 
Wolfy said:
No news on Kreider? Arbitration in less than 48 hours.
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Current word on the street is that he's a freak of nature with blazing speed, monster strength, a developing mean streak and a wicked shot. His brakes suck though:sarcasm:

Yeah I can't wait to lock him up for a bit. I'm sure the usual bridge deal Sather excels at. Kinda worrisome though because if he continues to rise, his contract demands will be high. He will be what Nash was, and Nash will be hopefully still a 30 goal guy.

This brings a thought up in me head. I think that the org. Has done an amazing job of putting veteran stars in the mix and allowing them to help develop talented youngsters with similar traits and skills.

Richards plays a similar game as Step and their strengths are Vision, IQ, and passing .

St. Louis plays a monster little man game with speed, snipes and playmaking , a perfect example for MZA.

Nash is a big guy with silky mitts , speed, skill and snipes. Kreider is a beast. He has learned from Nash how to put it together IMO .( I truly believe lat season is the past now, and look forward to him playing very well from here , fully healthy and motivated after getting a real taste for the playoffs.)

D. Boyle has been a minute munching PP producer, and cerebral player. McD is already an elite shut down D , and his offense is blossoming . Boyle should help him reach that next level.
 
Is there any way you could do a cap hit for O'Reilley and bring the AAV down with years and make it work? Just thinking out loud and bored of this offseason.
 
truenewyorker said:
Is there any way you could do a cap hit for O'Reilley and bring the AAV down with years and make it work? Just thinking out loud and bored of this offseason.
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7 years 39.5M.

5.6M cap-hit.

Year 1: 6.5
Year 2: 6.5
Year 3: 6
Year 4: 5.5
Year 5: 5
Year 6: 5
Year 7: 5

But I personally wouldn't have a problem paying O'Reilly 6-6.5M per season for 7 seasons. I think he's going to have a fantastic career. I really like every aspect of his game and he only just turned 23.
 
silverfish said:
Explain this please.
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Because Eakin is a bottom 6 player that is two years older than Miller, who easily has the higher upside?

I've watched him play A LOT. He has a very bottom 6 skillset. Dallas tried him as their 2C and it didn't work. He doesn't have the skill for it. They put him with two hard-working grinders in Roussel and Garbutt and they struck gold.
 
Raspewtin said:
Because Eakin is a bottom 6 player that is two years older than Miller, who easily has the higher upside?

I've watched him play A LOT. He has a very bottom 6 skillset. Dallas tried him as their 2C and it didn't work. He doesn't have the skill for it. They put him with two hard-working grinders in Roussel and Garbutt and they struck gold.
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So why can Miller who hasn't proven he can be an effective 3C at the NHL have a better shot at being a top-6 center one day than Eakin?

I'm not discounting your logic. I'd just like more than what you've provided.

I've also watched Eakin quite a bit and came away a little more impressed.

As always:

"How do I know that what you see as the color blue is the same thing that I see?"

:)

EDIT - Please don't respond by saying something like: Well how can McDavid have a better shot at being a top-6 center than Eakin? You know it's different. But I do understand that my logic in that sense is certainly flawed. It's more or less because I do think that not only is Eakin better today than Miller, he was better than Miller when he was 21, and he'll always be better than Miller. Again, keyword is "think". Just from what I've seen from both players. I am not a pro scout. I am just a fan. This is what I think

Thanks.
 
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