Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster building / proposal thread Part II
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I think you just proved my point with those stats. 2 years younger and Miller is comparable to Eakin.
It's hard to judge Miller's NHL production because he's been thrust into so many different situations. With Torts, he'd come in and play 10+ minutes one game, only to be benched after the first period the next game.
With Vigneault, same thing.
Miller was frequently on the 4th line during the season, as well. It's a shame he hurt his collarbone when he was on the 3rd line, because he looked like he was determined to prove all the naysayers wrong.
Your PPG NHL assessments are pretty lopsided too. Look at Eakin's TOI. It's about 2-4 times longer than Miller's. No **** he's producing more.
I am looking at AHL stats because that is relative for both players. I am NOT looking at WHL stats because it's no where near as indicative of NHL success as AHL stats are.
Maybe we should revisit this conversation around the 41 game mark of this season, when Vigneault is forced to play Miller top 9 minutes with formidable line mates... and not putting Miller with D. Moore and D. Dorsett for 7 minutes a night.
silverfish
got perma'd
I think your rationale is flawed. I do not think Eakin and Miller are comparable at all. Eakin came in and forced Dallas to utilize him. Miller came in, was given a chance, and never earned the right to be a full-time guy. If it's now TWO different coaches that have done that, what's the common theme?
You looked at AHL stats, and I looked at WHL stats. I find them both to be useless in this conversation as we have plenty of tape and statistics at the NHL level to use for both of these players. I threw the WHL stats in there to show you that your AHL stats argument is flawed, IMO.
I understand that points-per-game is maybe not necessarily the best thing to use. That's why I threw every advanced stat I could at you (including points per 60) to prove that Eakin's points-per-game statistic is harder earned than Miller's. This being due to factors such as zone starts, quality of teammates, and quality of competition.
AV will player Miller in the top 9 when Miller EARNS that right. He hasn't yet. I don't see AV being "forced" to play Miller in the top 9 (I'm assuming the way you said this was to say that Miller's play will force AV to utilize him more). Miller has shown nothing at the NHL level to prove that he's earned the right to play 3C for this team. It's a crying shame that he's going into camp as the #1 option. It will be an even bigger shame if he doesn't earn it yet the team has no suitable option to replace him.
My argument is biased in my eyes, obviously. But the way I'm seeing things is you're using potential, and I'm using proven.
EDIT - At this point, I think we'll be very lucky if Miller ends up like Eakin today in the next two years. I'm not confident, though.
In two years, do you see Miller as a bonafide 3C, who can step in at 2C. Who plays every situation (ES, PP, PK) and is recording 40 points a season, along with having a good head on his shoulders, hockey IQ, and a team-first mentality? Who does whatever the coaching staff asks of him?
I don't, you do. This is why we'll never go anywhere with this conversation
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- Sep 17, 2007
- 24,929
- 22,850
This argument is so disingenuous. Eakin is 2 years older than Miller. Let's compare Miller now to Eakin 2 years ago:
Eakin:
30 games played
4 goals
4 assists
Miller
60 games played (56 regular season and 4 playoffs)
5 goals
7 assists
Eakin didn't play at all as a 19 year old, so let's compare just their 20 year old seasons:
Eakin:
30 games played
4 goals
4 assists
Miller:
34 games played (30 reg, 4 playoff)
3 goals
5 assists
Yeah, real big difference there. Eakin is obviously a superstar and Miller is a bust. You nailed it.
JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
Twenty f*ckin years
- Oct 8, 2010
- 80,071
- 17,712
There is no point, silverfish will take every opportunity possible to **** on Miller.
silverfish
got perma'd
Okay, let's go further. The 20/21 year old season for both players.
Eakin - Washington Capitals - 2011/2012.
30 games, 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points. As you noted. 4 PIMs. +2 (I hate +/-, but it's there, so I included it)
30.9% oZone starts, +4.8% relative. CF% relative: +2.9% FF% relative: +1.0%
Quality of competition: 25.9% (-2.5% relative). Quality of teammates: 27% (-1.6% relative)
1.72 points/60. +0.7 penalties drawn/60. 0.5 Goals For differential/60
% of teams ES TOI: 18.2%. % of teams PP TOI: 6.6%. % of teams PK TOI: 0.4%
Teammates: Marcus Johansson (46 points) Mike Knuble (18 points) Joel Ward (18 points)
Points in games Eakin played in: Johansson (17 points) Knuble (4 points) Ward (7 points)
Miller - New York Rangers - 2013/2014
30 games, 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points. 18 PIMs. -6
37.8% oZone starts, +5.4% relative. CF% relative: -2.4% FF% relative: -2.1%
Quality of competition: 27.9% (-1% relative). Quality of teammates: 28% (-0.8% relative)
1.05 points/60. -0.2 penalties drawn/60. -1.5 Goals For differential/60
% of teams ES TOI: 21.3%. % of teams PP TOI: 15.3%. % of teams PK TOI: 0.3%**
Teammates: Derick Brassard (45 points) Benoit Pouliot (36 points) Carl Hagelin (33 points)
Points in games Miller played in: Brassard (14 points) Pouliot (14 points) Hagelin (17 points)
*For the JT Miller section, I bolded the actual stat in the categories for which JT Miller had an advantage over, or performed better than Cody Eakin. You can see that there aren't many production categories bolded. Odd. The only spot Miller did not have an advantage over Eakin is quality of competition.
** Italicized because they are near identical
I can let you read the stats for what you think they are worth. I'm not going to spell it out.
Yeah. No argument there. I think JT Miller is terrible at hockey. I think JT Miller will bust. I think JT Miller will be outplayed by: Lombardi, Mueller, and Lindberg in camp. I think JT Miller is going to go serious busto.
I HOPE I'm wrong. I want to be wrong. I swear I do.
EDIT - And BTW, when I do **** on Miller, and I do - no denying that - it's always backed up by stats or facts. It's never just blatant opinion or bias. I'm not the one sitting here spewing, with no factual evidence to support it, that Miller is a "lock" for 40 points this season. I do my best to bring stats and evidence to the table while most of HFNYR fights back with opinion and potential. And if it is blatant opinion or bias, I always make sure to say I 'THINK' when I write things like that (see: above)
My dislike for JT Miller doesn't just come from nowhere. It comes from really watching him every time he hits the ice and seeing what he's doing out there.
He hasn't stuck yet despite his chances. That's got to say something, right?
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LundqvistsEvilTwin
Registered User
i wouldnt trade miller for eakin any day of the week.. eakin may be good, but miller can be just as good one day
LundqvistsEvilTwin
Registered User
btw.. looking at stepans stats this year nd hearing him say after the olympics that he wanted a bigger role... he will be a legit #1 c next year in ny with 63pts 
Hire Sather
He Is Our Star
oh my god he provided a bunch of advanced stats, that means hes right and you cannot say a word to refute it!
THE STATS SAY IT! THE STATS SAY IT!
christ
why would we trade both miller and hagelin for a player who MIGHT be better than miller's ceiling
why create an extra hole?
THE STATS SAY IT! THE STATS SAY IT!
christ
why would we trade both miller and hagelin for a player who MIGHT be better than miller's ceiling
why create an extra hole?
I think what it says is that he just turned 21 and still has areas in his game he needs to improve on and it's better him doing it with top forward minutes in HFD than doing it on the fourth line in NY. And perhaps defense is one of those areas and they definitely didn't want him in a checking role in NY. Not saying what the kid will be. Honestly haven't seem enough, but perhaps his biggest problem is he's only 21 and he's been around too long. If he went to college, we may be happy seeing him in HFD to begin this season and noone could say he's been given a chance to stick but hasn't. If he doesn't improve this season, then I'd begin to worry. At the least he's improved offensively, by a good amount too, year over year. That's something.
This Eakin / Miller talk is ridiculous. There is no chance J.T. Miller would be traded in a deal like that. He either gets his chance here or he gets packaged in a much bigger deal where he's just one of a few pieces.
And Hagelin included also??? I wouldn't trade Hagelin straight up for Eakin. Hagelin provides so much for this team outside of scoring. Any goals he scores are icing on the cake. His speed is so dynamic; he forechecks and forces turnovers solely because of his speed. He's very aware in his own zone and positionally sound in the neutral zone, and is a fantastic PKer (and SH threat, again because of his speed). He can also be put on ANY line and his speed can help create space for a player / line that is struggling to generate offense. His value cannot be underestimated. He's a big part of our core IMO. He may not be as offensively gifted as Kreider, but he's a battler and he embodies what this team identity is all about. I hope he's a Ranger for life. He's the kind of guy I'd hold out of a trade, even if the value was there to get us a better offensive player. It's very hard to find a player who does everything that Hagelin does with legs and a motor like his. And his cap-hit is small and will likely stay affordable because he doesn't put up huge numbers. (Although I feel he's going to have a couple seasons where he's part of a line that dominates and he's going to put up tons of points because of it. Hopefully that's after he signs a long-term contract, and not in a contract year)
Eakin is a nice player. I like his game a lot. But Miller has the potential to be even better. Let's let the kid play a full NHL season in his natural position before we start making absurd claims about him, ok?
And Hagelin included also??? I wouldn't trade Hagelin straight up for Eakin. Hagelin provides so much for this team outside of scoring. Any goals he scores are icing on the cake. His speed is so dynamic; he forechecks and forces turnovers solely because of his speed. He's very aware in his own zone and positionally sound in the neutral zone, and is a fantastic PKer (and SH threat, again because of his speed). He can also be put on ANY line and his speed can help create space for a player / line that is struggling to generate offense. His value cannot be underestimated. He's a big part of our core IMO. He may not be as offensively gifted as Kreider, but he's a battler and he embodies what this team identity is all about. I hope he's a Ranger for life. He's the kind of guy I'd hold out of a trade, even if the value was there to get us a better offensive player. It's very hard to find a player who does everything that Hagelin does with legs and a motor like his. And his cap-hit is small and will likely stay affordable because he doesn't put up huge numbers. (Although I feel he's going to have a couple seasons where he's part of a line that dominates and he's going to put up tons of points because of it. Hopefully that's after he signs a long-term contract, and not in a contract year)
Eakin is a nice player. I like his game a lot. But Miller has the potential to be even better. Let's let the kid play a full NHL season in his natural position before we start making absurd claims about him, ok?
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- Sep 17, 2007
- 24,929
- 22,850
IMO they aren't worth squat considering the small sample size. The point is, neither player set the world on fire before turning 21, and Eakin still hasn't 2 years later, unless you consider 35 points in 81 games as setting the world on fire.
Staal and Brassard for Vermette and Yandle
Kreider Stepan St. Louis
Nash Vermette Zuccarello
Hagelin Miller Stempniak
Glass Moore Lombardi
McDonagh Boyle
Yandle Girardi
Moore Klein
Lundqvist
Talbot
Vermette (lower cap-hit than Brass will get) is a UFA after the season, as is Staal.
Yandle makes about 1.2 more than Staal so it all evens out.
PHX gets a younger center for Vermette who can be signed past this season and a shutdown D to pair with one of their more offensive minded defensemen.
Rangers get a 2C on a cheaper cap-hit who expires after the season, and more offense from the blue-line at a lower cap-hit than Staal will get after this season, and Yandle is signed through the end of the season after next. Vermette also had the best season of his career (65 points) playing with Rick Nash.
We don't get a whole lot better, but it's a little tweak that helps us financially and adds a little more offense from the back-end and deals with the Brassard contract situation and Staal's pending contract situation.
Kreider Stepan St. Louis
Nash Vermette Zuccarello
Hagelin Miller Stempniak
Glass Moore Lombardi
McDonagh Boyle
Yandle Girardi
Moore Klein
Lundqvist
Talbot
Vermette (lower cap-hit than Brass will get) is a UFA after the season, as is Staal.
Yandle makes about 1.2 more than Staal so it all evens out.
PHX gets a younger center for Vermette who can be signed past this season and a shutdown D to pair with one of their more offensive minded defensemen.
Rangers get a 2C on a cheaper cap-hit who expires after the season, and more offense from the blue-line at a lower cap-hit than Staal will get after this season, and Yandle is signed through the end of the season after next. Vermette also had the best season of his career (65 points) playing with Rick Nash.
We don't get a whole lot better, but it's a little tweak that helps us financially and adds a little more offense from the back-end and deals with the Brassard contract situation and Staal's pending contract situation.
Brassard is better than vet metre and has chemistry w zuc
Just accept the 1 yr arbitration number if he wants too much long term . My guess is he wants to be a ranger and takes 4.5 ish
silverfish
got perma'd
Once again, I post stats and facts and these are the responses I get in return. Nothing factual, all speculation, all attacks.
I'm not even an advanced stats "bro", but why ignore it when they are there to help? Not completely base a players ability off of, but to complement an argument? I for one enjoy using every source available. GAGline came at me with goals and assists, so I built on it with further statistics that can help us evaluate players. Why is that so terrible?
I said in my initial post about this argument that it fixes one hole and opens another.
I also *think* that Cody Eakin will have a more effective NHL career than JT Miller. Hence my proposal including Hagelin.
This is why people hate message boards. Thank you for your positive contribution to the discussion.
Agreed. The sample size is quite small. We do have the benefit of both samples being 30 games though, so it was still meaningful to compare IMO. I do look forward to looking back on this in a couple of years and seeing where JT Miller is compared to where Eakin was today.
I don't disagree with any of this at all. I wish JT Miller could be given another full year in the A to work on all facets of his game. Take some call ups here and there this coming season, and play top-9 minutes in a pressure free sort of environment. Unfortunately due to the cap crunch, we are going into training camp (at the moment) with JT Miller as our number one option for 3C when the puck drops in October. Judging by what JT has shown us at the NHL level so far, I'd argue that it is an issue the team should look into repairing. Specifically due to the fact that JT's defensive play and hockey IQ have left a lot to be desired in his time in the NHL.
I'm not even an advanced stats "bro", but why ignore it when they are there to help? Not completely base a players ability off of, but to complement an argument? I for one enjoy using every source available. GAGline came at me with goals and assists, so I built on it with further statistics that can help us evaluate players. Why is that so terrible?
I said in my initial post about this argument that it fixes one hole and opens another.
I also *think* that Cody Eakin will have a more effective NHL career than JT Miller. Hence my proposal including Hagelin.
Because STATS bro!
This is why people hate message boards. Thank you for your positive contribution to the discussion.
Agreed. The sample size is quite small. We do have the benefit of both samples being 30 games though, so it was still meaningful to compare IMO. I do look forward to looking back on this in a couple of years and seeing where JT Miller is compared to where Eakin was today.
I don't disagree with any of this at all. I wish JT Miller could be given another full year in the A to work on all facets of his game. Take some call ups here and there this coming season, and play top-9 minutes in a pressure free sort of environment. Unfortunately due to the cap crunch, we are going into training camp (at the moment) with JT Miller as our number one option for 3C when the puck drops in October. Judging by what JT has shown us at the NHL level so far, I'd argue that it is an issue the team should look into repairing. Specifically due to the fact that JT's defensive play and hockey IQ have left a lot to be desired in his time in the NHL.
THE BIG WHISTLE
Heave-Ho
That's why it's a message board and not STATS 101, if you think the game is played by inputing numbers then my friend you have never played a game in your life. Their are so many variables to a player that you can't put into some math problem
Hire Sather
He Is Our Star
I don't see you making any kind of debate other than listing a slew of advanced stats, which really prove nothing because Miller hasn't been given the same chance as Eakin at this point in his career. Its really gotten tiring to me to see every player debate on these boards end up in someone dropping a whole bunch of advanced stats as if to say that tells all and whatever anybody tries to say to refute it is void because hell you can't argue with the numbers, right!? As if theres no other variables that go into the equation.
Eakin has 2 seasons under his belt, one of them a lockout year obviously while Miller has gotten various cups of coffee over the past 2 seasons so I think its unfair to compare the two on production when their roles were so different. I will admit I'm obviously not watching Eakin play on a regular basis other than his few games against the Rangers I've probably only watched him a handful of times. But certainly have seen him some and he doesn't exactly blow me away.
Really don't see how Eakin has impressed enough to warrant moving a player in Miller who could very well end up better than him plus a 2nd/3rd line winger who could be the fastest player in the NHL and works very well under AV. The trade has a lot more potential to hurt than help.
I don't think anybody thinks the game can be run by a computer. The point with stats is they're used as a tool. Advanced stats gets you closer to understanding a player without watching, but doesn't fully replace watching. It's a tool. People will mostly say the be goal scorer is person who's led the league 4 of the last 6 seasons. The best setup man is the centerman who led the league in assists 4 of the last 6 seasons. Those always seem to be decent places to begin the argument, so why not use the other stats to start a position? Every has a different set of eyes. Everyone seems to have a different opinion when watching the same game. These stats will sometimes make you think, hmmn, maybe I should watch more closely and see what comes of it. GMs use them. Coaches use them. Analysts use them. So why can't it be used in here to show something that is at least factual instead of an opinion based on what someone saw which was different from someone else? They're not the end-all, be-all, but if they're available, they're worth noting. If you don't agree, you can obviously logically say why.
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
Cody Eakin came away from the 11/12 season with people wondering if he'd be any better than a 4th liner. One offseason later and he's NHL ready, but has to spend half the year in the AHL due to the lockout. In the shortened season, he managed to double his productivity. That offseason for Eakin is what this offseason is for Miller.
Silverfish, I think you're drawing far too many conclusions from Millers NHL game thus far. Have an open mind on what he could be bringing to the table as he develops. Off seasons are hugely important for young players to internalize and better understand how to utilize the things they learned the previous year. It's way too early to be down on the guy.
Silverfish, I think you're drawing far too many conclusions from Millers NHL game thus far. Have an open mind on what he could be bringing to the table as he develops. Off seasons are hugely important for young players to internalize and better understand how to utilize the things they learned the previous year. It's way too early to be down on the guy.
silverfish
got perma'd
The stats are being used as a complement, not an end all be all. I've now stated that more than a few times.
I'm not saying the stats tell the whole story, but I do believe they are an excellent complement and a fantastic addition to actually watching the game. Anyone who tells you stats are the end all be all are wrong. Anyone who tells you they don't matter is wrong. Everything needs to be used together. As more and more people get comfortable with the advanced statistics in hockey, I fear that this "epidemic" of sorts where it is used as the end all be all will become more popular. I'm already seeing it in a fantasy league of mine where people won't trade for a player because his corsi scares them away. It's an odd transition, but it's coming.
My last post equated Eakins' 20/21 year old season with Washington to Miller's 20/21 year old season this past year. I think it's a fair comparison. It is only 30 games which is an issue in itself, but it was 30 games for both players - which was convenient.
I've watched Eakins quite a bit. I see a center with speed, grit, and hustle. A guy who has proven he can play in every situation. He reminds me a bit of Hagelin, funny enough. Slower, but better hands and more finish. He's also not afraid to grind it out. Nearly a complete 3C at 23. He'll be a good 2C when it's all said and done from what I've seen so far (*this is solely the opinion of one poster*)
And I do agree. Losing Hagelin would hurt, but adding Eakin would be huge now and into the future for this franchise.
*Again, this is becoming more opinion and spec based than I'd like. I wonder what Dallas fans think of Eakin and where he projects; as fans who have watched him now for two full (one lockout) seasons.*
This is a much more eloquent putting of what I've been saying. Stats are a complement. This is a very good post.
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