Mirka the Turka
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- Oct 20, 2022
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This seems like a genuine jinx thread for the sole fact that it has a damn upside down question mark in the title.You win 1 million dollars if you get the answer right, what you choosing?
You know I was thinking the same thing this afternoon when I saw this poll then he goes out and scores 4 points.Nobody in their right minds should say yes.
He's a great player but in a McDavid league everyone is fighting for second.
Also, we need to stop having Jack Hughes polls/threads every couple of days. It drives me nuts, so I can't even imagine how much worse it is for non Devil fans
You know I was thinking the same thing this afternoon when I saw this poll then he goes out and scores 4 points.
He might just have THAT season this year.
That said I still think Draisatal is the better bet for winning the Art ross if McDavid doesn't.
Who knows but like I said I have a feeling that this might be THAT season for Hughes.I think he scores more than Draisaitl this season. Yes that may be a tough task once we get deep into the season but really I just think he is that good and only improving.
No he wouldn’t, don’t put that on himCarful @Steven Toast may laugh at you for considering anyone other than Draisaitl if McDavid were out long term.
Even if the poll is about McDavid the no option is very generous. With the 1000+ players in the NHL not a single player has the probability of GTE 1/2 for winning the Art Ross.The odds for anyone not McDavid are marginal. And basically if it's not McDavid, it could be anyone from 10 or so players. So the fictional "prize" for getting it right should be way lower for "No" (like win 1000 vs 1m with "Yes")
Even if the poll is about McDavid the no option is very generous. With the 1000+ players in the NHL not a single player has the probability of GTE 1/2 for winning the Art Ross.
If we denote a 50% probability for McDavid to win, with players in the set of next ten most likely to win adding up to, say, 40% and the rest sharing the tenth percentile, and supposing that the ten players after McDavid each has a similar weight (I mean realistically there couldn't be much fluctuation among them since their weights are so low to begin with - a drastic increase in the weight of one player would lower the weights of others below a reasonable level), that would mean the player with the second best odds has a win probability of ~4%. Doesn't seem reasonable to me.If it wasn't for McDavid injury - yes, I would give over 50% odds to McDavid winning. His level of domination over the last 3 years is insane.
Even with injury - he's still the favorite today. Wouldn't put him favorite over the field though, but it's close.
As for poll - no Jack Hughes will not win.
It's nice to see him racking up points right now but it's clearly not sustainable, I'd be thrilled with over 100 points and top 5 in scoringYou know I was thinking the same thing this afternoon when I saw this poll then he goes out and scores 4 points.
He might just have THAT season this year.
That said I still think Draisatal is the better bet for winning the Art ross if McDavid doesn't.