Thank you for replying! Ok here we go...
The weighting is a personal choice and it makes sense and what is your actual weighting?
In the playoffs things like small smapole size, running into a hot goalie, havong your goaie crap out, an injury like Tavares in game one and different matchups for different teams make for a very unven comparisson and baseline.
The regular season is amore even and fair baseline for all players and it's not even really debatable is it?
It's clearly a subjective weight, i don't have a specific ratio for you because i don't think that framework makes a lot of sense. Simply put, If a star player cannot perform well in the playoffs consistently then they are ultimately not worth their contract and their inflated AAV starts to drastically impact the team.
I'll grant you that any individual playoff series can be impacted by bad luck or factors not directly related to an individual's performance, over a large sample size (especially 8! seasons) these things stop being bad luck and start becoming hollow excuses. At some point you'd think we would have seen Matthews take over a series and propel his team to victory.
Again, my argument is that with his top 3 NHL cap hit it's a requirement that he does do this.
Look everyone knows the Leafs have under performed and most people also know why.
Team construction is outside of any players controle and it's not like the Leafs have played bad team or not run into good goalies.
Team construction is limited for the Leafs because their 4 star forwards demanded high AAV's and Matthews specifically is trying to maximize his career earnings over taking more team-friendly deals.
He basically has the 3rd highest cap hit in the league now, he's like $40k under Panarin. His $13.25m AAV kicks in next year and will be the highest in the league until McDavid and possibly Draisaitl get their new deals. Regardless, probably still a top 3 hit for 9 years in the NHL between the start of his current contract and the end of his upcoming deal.
He's paid to be a perennial Richard/Hart threat every season so it's expected that he performs to that level in the playoffs as well. He ranks 44th in Playoff PPG in his 8 year career so far. Kane ranked 15th from 09-17 and this is after many deep playoff runs playing against amazing teams.
His contract has nothing to do with it unless you magically think that him taking a lesser contract would somehow land a great UFA (who is never there anyways) on the back end to suddenly sign with the Leafs.
The mistake in this argument is thinking if AM34 took $1.5-2m less on his deal what player would they add for $1.5-2m instead. It doesn't work that way and that's not what people are suggesting. But his bloated AAV prevents the Leafs from adding better pieces either year in and year out or from retaining good depth guys who are looking for raises in the $2m or so range.
Matthews isn't the only one on his team doing this but if all 4 of them took more team friendly deals like in Colorado or Tampa they absolutely would be able to ice a better roster. Instead the core 4 and especially Matthews try to just maximize their earnings and prioritize it extremely over winning.
Who said anything about not giving credence to the playoffs?
I just don't conflate team success with individual players success.
For example if Ovechkin had never won a SC his career value wouldn't be any different for me nor should it.
Same with the current Oilers duo, all 3 players should be judged by what they as players did not their teams.
You did. Matthew's individual performances in the playoffs
DIRECTLY correlates to team success. Again, because his AAV is so high he has a higher accountability to perform well and carry his team. If you're going to make the biggest buck$ you have to perform the best, he doesn't. Routinely.
nce again the black Hawks won 3 SC's Kane was part of that and where is the equivalent Keith, Toews, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson...ect?
I really think people are being lazy by not comparing the 2 teams construction here.
Take the Leafs in 21-22 losing to the 2 time SC champions in TB, who BTW would go on to the SC finals again.
AM did his part but I guess it's somehow his fault that Jack Campbell had a .897 save %?
If one goes back to the last 2 games of that TB series AM drove play at an elite rate and scored a goal in one game and had an assist on the only Leaf goal in the final game, it wasn't a choke job in reality but it's Matthews so the false narrative persists.
1) The Leafs have the 3rd most points in the league over Matthews career, he is not playing on some plucky #8 seeded team just happy to be in the playoffs. Magazine cover memes aside, it is expected from fans inside Toronto and out that the Leafs be a Cup contender every year considering the talent they have. Their star forwards, who are paid to take over playoff series because their AAV is so high, routinely underperform and it puts extra pressure on lesser talented players and forces poor roster construction in key areas like depth, defense, and goaltending.
The Blackhawks allocated their cap resources differently, specifically with Patrick Kane who often did never got to play with the other best forwards on his team and instead had to play with 2nd and 3rd liners. He almost never had a good center to play with and the year he finally did get a talented player on his line all year he had one of the most dominant Hart/Ross seasons of the cap-era.
Regardless, If instead of Seabrook and Hjalmarsson on say the 2013 team the Hawks subbed those guys out for two top 15 forwards (Marner and Nylander equivalents) they would STILL be a very talented team, just lacking majorly in depth and defense. The Leafs are constructed to score their way out of their roster deficiencies however their star forwards aren't capable of doing that. It is very much the fault of Matthews and Co.
I'm talking about in general how players get evaluated all time in hockey and in other sports, too much emphasis is put on winning, sure it's important but weighing the playoffs any higher than 25% is just unfair and not really a good way to go about it.
The larger 82 game sample is more telling than say at most a 20ish game one.
Sure winning does matter and that's why I give it 25% even when for most players even in their prime less than 20% of their games are in the playoffs
I think you have your priorities flipped here and in fact I'd say the regular season is more chaotic and uneven than the playoffs are. Players are not consistently giving it their all, they play against and compile stats against the bottom half of the league, there's more travel, and teams don't scout each other as heavily to key in on their opponents like in the playoffs.
It's harder to win games in the playoffs than it is in the regular season and a playoff win means much, much more to a team I guarantee it. Playoff games aren't won because of luck, series definitely aren't won because of luck. Games are won and lost based on the talent of individual players coming together as a team to get the job done.
www.hockey-reference.com
www.hockey-reference.com
