2024 NHL Draft Thread (CBJ to pick 4th)

[Double-Shift Lasse]

the biggest example of this imo is the chinakhov pick from a few years ago. he wasn't on the public boards at all, but he was in the top 10 on the jackets board.

they picked him at #20 and got a load of shit for not trading back. but all they saw was a top-10 player on the board available at #20. the outsider perspective was an enormous reach, but based on their board he was an enormous value pick.

had they made assumptions based on public boards, and traded down, they may have missed out on chinakhov. is the marginal increase in draft capital via trade-down worth sacrificing a top-10 player who you can get at #20? nope.

that said, team boards start to show more variance after the top 10-15 picks. with the jackets picking fourth this year, they may have similar grades on the 4th-10th guys on their board. if a team makes it worth their while to trade back, they may still be able to get a top-5 guy on their board at 7 (ottawa) or 9 (calgary) while netting an additional first-rounder.

if they get on the clock at 4 and one of their top 3 guys is still there, though? then you make the pick and don't think twice about it.

All of this should be on the table. I just have an issue with some (what seem to me to be) assumptions around BPA and that it's somehow different from what teams actually do.

 

[CBJx614]

Again I say, BPA is not some universal metric. While it's possible to run all of these media boards through a blender and come up with an average/consensus, each team uses its own board. If a team's board has Catton ranked fourth, then he would be BPA when the Jackets pick. Likewise for Helenius, or Levshunov, or... you get the point.

I don't think any team is taking a player they know is worse than another player based on positional need. I think positional need may impact a decision between two equally-considered players. But drafting a player who also meets an organizational need is not automatically NOT the BPA.

I will add that, if a team thinks it can get its third-ranked player at 8OA (for example), then it should at least explore the possibility of trading into that spot. I say this as someone who typically poo-poos trading down because people seem to think it's just an easy thing to do.

The problem with moving back in a draft like this is it screams " I think I'm the smartest guy in the room" vibes thinking you know you'll be able to get your guy if you move back 5 picks. If you have a guy listed as your BPA at 4, take him at 4 unless you think you can get him at 30 and get significant compensation for moving back. Otherwise, it's not worth the risk to move back a handful of picks just for another 2nd or something along those lines.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The problem with moving back in a draft like this is it screams " I think I'm the smartest guy in the room" vibes thinking you know you'll be able to get your guy if you move back 5 picks. If you have a guy listed as your BPA at 4, take him at 4 unless you think you can get him at 30 and get significant compensation for moving back. Otherwise, it's not worth the risk to move back a handful of picks just for another 2nd or something along those lines.

I agree with this.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

The problem with moving back in a draft like this is it screams " I think I'm the smartest guy in the room" vibes thinking you know you'll be able to get your guy if you move back 5 picks. If you have a guy listed as your BPA at 4, take him at 4 unless you think you can get him at 30 and get significant compensation for moving back. Otherwise, it's not worth the risk to move back a handful of picks just for another 2nd or something along those lines.

You're making the assumption that teams have "the guy" at every draft. The gaps between these players are often really small in the draft day, and the future development is a gamble of genetics/injuries/other unquantifiable factors. Imo players should be split into groups, and trading down should be on the table if you can get a guy from the same group when you trade down.

GM who thinks he is the smartest one in the room is actually the one who has "his guy" every single year.

 

[GoChill]

The problem with moving back in a draft like this is it screams " I think I'm the smartest guy in the room"

Or I think it could scream "I have no idea all these players look basically the same to me. The guy I get at 9 is just as likely to be as good as the player I get at 4."

Mackenzie's list is made from actual scouts and he said it is a tight consensus on the top 15. I think of the 10 scouts he surveyed he only received 16 different players ranked in the top 15. However, other than Celebrini at 1 there was almost no consensus at all in the order they should be taken.

If our scouts have a guy they feel strongly about available at 4 take him. Only way I trade back is if our scouts have say 5 guys they feel roughly the same about and different CBJ scouts rank them all differently. Then if possible sliding back a few spots knowing you will get one of those guys could make sense.

However, by the same logic teams picking 7-10 may feel the same way and not be willing to pay much to move up knowing they will likely get a guy they are happy with right where they are picking.

 

[CBJx614]

You're making the assumption that teams have "the guy" at every draft. The gaps between these players are often really small in the draft day, and the future development is a gamble of genetics/injuries/other unquantifiable factors. Imo players should be split into groups, and trading down should be on the table if you can get a guy from the same group when you trade down.

GM who thinks he is the smartest one in the room is actually the one who has "his guy" every single year.

Yes the gaps might be small between player A and player B. But rooms are going to like one guy more than the other. And it really depends on how you have your room tiered. If you don't think there's a major drop off until 15 yeah sure it might work. But at 4 you have the ability to take anyone you want, why take the risk for an extra mid to late round pick. Just take YOUR GUY when you can and be happy.

 

[GoChill]

This draft is starting to remind me of the draft where the Jackets tried desperately to trade up to get Noah Hannafin or possibly Provorov. They settled for taking Werenski at 7 and I think most would agree he turned into the best of the 3.

This year is kind of the same in that Buium, Dickinson, Yakemchuk, Silayev, Levshunov or Parekh could end up being the best defenseman in the class. Hopefully several of them turn out well and we get one of them if we draft defense.

If we go offense I suppose I like Lindstrom a big center that can score and be hard to play against sounds good. However given how every player on the Jackets seems injury prone drafting a guy with an injury issue sounds scary, especially when its a back injury.

 

[CBJx614]

This draft is starting to remind me of the draft where the Jackets tried desperately to trade up to get Noah Hannafin or possibly Provorov. They settled for taking Werenski at 7 and I think most would agree he turned into the best of the 3.

This year is kind of the same in that Buium, Dickinson, Yakemchuk, Silayev, Levshunov or Parekh could end up being the best defenseman in the class. Hopefully several of them turn out well and we get one of them if we draft defense.

If we go offense I suppose I like Lindstrom a big center that can score and be hard to play against sounds good. However given how every player on the Jackets seems injury prone drafting a guy with an injury issue sounds scary, especially when its a back injury.

I mentioned this on a previous page, but with the variation of teams list...some have him as a top 5-10 guy some have him outside the top 10...(Speaking of Buium) Why take the risk to move down when you can just take who you think is going to the best at 4 instead of gambling and taking someone else.

 

[GoChill]

But rooms are going to like one guy more than the other.

That is probably usually true and I agree take him in that situation. However, sometimes everyone in the room doesn't agree. I know in Florida's room way back when Dudley wanted Jay Bouwmeester and Grant Sonier wanted Rick Nash. Dudley was the boss and made the trade with Doug. Dudley got his guy at 4 for better or worse.

Sorry if I missed you suggesting similar on a previous page. I try to read a few previous posts but have not read the whole thread.

 

[GoChill]

FWIW, I do think the most likely scenario is the Jackets room likes a few guys better than the rest and make the pick at 4.

I hope they get it right or even close to right. Even if they don't get the guy who turns out the very best, getting one that turns our really well still works.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

That is probably usually true and I agree take him in that situation. However, sometimes everyone in the room doesn't agree. I know in Florida's room way back when Dudley wanted Jay Bouwmeester and Grant Sonier wanted Rick Nash. Dudley was the boss and made the trade with Doug. Dudley got his guy at 4 for better or worse.

Sorry if I missed you suggesting similar on a previous page. I try to read a few previous posts but have not read the whole thread.

I'd go ahead and guess that rooms rarely agree. You can see how much the opinions vary after the top 2-6 (depending on year) on every ranking public ranking and Bobs scout polls. This year there's probably no single consensual best options after top 2. Im counting Demidov, but even he was only 5/10 in Bob's scout polls

 

[koteka]

The guys I would be happy to draft if we draft at 4:

Celebrini
Demidov
healthy Lindstrom

The guys I would be happy to draft if we draft at 10:

Celebrini
Demidov
fairly healthy Lindstrom
Buium
Iginla
Catton
Helenius
Silayev
Yakemchuk
Dickinson
Levshunov

If you made me rank this class today

Celebrini

- big gap -

Demidov

- big gap -

fairly healthy Lindstrom

- big gap -

Buium Iginla Catton Dickinson

- tiny gap -

Helenius Silayev Yakemchuk

- tiny gap -

Levshunov

- small gap -

Parekh Sennecke

- medium gap -

Greentree Boisvert

- small gap -

Bransegg-Nygard Connelly

I want to trade back. After the top 3, I think 7 guys are really close (Buium Iginla Catton Dickinson Helenius Silayev Yakemchuk). I also think Levshunov falling to the 8 to 10 range might be a good thing for him to get him to focus on making the right plays and not just be the best guy in his own team and doing what he wants.

 

[CBJx614]

For the stats crowd..

https://x.com/i/web/status/1794047666374263251

Celebrinni for reference...

https://x.com/i/web/status/1787981599893758088

 

[KJ Dangler]

 

[EspenK]

Does anyone know what the 1C, 1D mean?

Also even though yesterday I kind of espoused for Dickinson I think this kid is who I really want. I keep thinking up reasons why we shouldn't take him but damn his size and physicality could along with Fantilli help form a very solid two 2 C's for a long time. As the team improves (presumably/hopefully) the opportunity to draft a potential 1C will decrease.

 

[GoChill]

Big, kinda mean, good skater, competitive, a center, can score and barely 18…the only reason I can think of not to like him is the injury thing. I’m more sensitive to it because it seems like the Jackets themselves are so injury prone. If he gets a good health report and looks healthy at the combine I’d be happy with this pick.

Plus if we draft him and he is constantly injured he will fit right in! Sounds like a Jacket to me.